LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Goodyear 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Goodyear 400🏁

Firstly, I would like to wish a Happy Mother’s Day to all three female readers of the Pitstop, I hope you enjoy your special day and get to relax and watch a fantastic race. There are very few times that I am happy to be wrong about, but last week’s race is one of them. Tires were a major issue, and the racing was phenomenal, two things I did not see coming at Kansas. This week, NASCAR is looking for a similarly entertaining event when the Cup series travels to Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC, for the Goodyear 400. The “Lady in Black” is a 1.366 mile, banked, egg-shaped oval with high tire wear. Turns 1 and 2 are wide and sweeping, whereas turns 3 and 4 are much narrower, giving the track its unique shape. Another fun thing about this weekend is it’s NASCAR’s throwback weekend, so the entire race will have a retro feel to it.

The forecast for Sunday is favorable for the race, warm with about a 20% chance of showers. Worst case, the track has lights, so we all get to stay up late.

_{On to Darlington!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 293 laps will be run this week, and 73.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 250 laps should run under the green flag for 112.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

“The Track Too Tough to Tame” earns its reputation on the Cup circuit and DFS. There will be nothing comfortable about the lineups we build on Sunday because almost anything can happen. Most of the time we start our lineups with our dominator pool but Darlington is one of the tracks that offers a ton of options for our dominators. The Spring race tends to only have one major dominator. Two dominator races are possible, but they are more likely in the Fall race because it is one hundred miles longer. With that being said, the dominator(s) tend to start in the top 10, but that is not an absolute rule. Adding more fun to the situation, dominating does not guarantee you a spot in the perfect lineup because attrition is a real thing at Darlington. Our best approach is to roster two drivers starting in the top 10 and hope that at least one of them leads a significant number of laps. Odds are one of the drivers in the top 4 will spend a decent amount of time upfront, so we may want one driver starting 1-4 and a second driver starting 5-10.

Once we choose our dominators, we will want to fill out the rest of our lineup with drivers that can pick up at least 10 places OR finish in the top 10. This rule gives us a bit of leeway as well as provides us with a goal for the rest of our drivers. Passing should not be an issue at Darlington, and accidents will happen so drivers will make big moves. Any non-dominator driver we choose should either have top 10 potential or, for those starting towards the rear, the ability to pick up at least 10 spots. Those are both pretty lofty goals, but they should point us in the right direction.

The bargain basement is open for business on Sunday. We will probably need at least one driver in this range with an outside chance of two drivers if you want to be a bit crazy. Again these drivers will need to pick up at least 10 spots if they finish outside the top 10, but at Darlington that is a reasonable expectation for some of these drivers.

Stage 1: 90 Laps

Stage 2: 95 Laps

Stage 3: 108 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,600 DK, $10,000 FD)

Elliott lit up the field in practice but had a lackluster qualifying effort which works out very well for us this weekend. From his 21st place starting position, Chase has nothing but upside. He ran the fastest single lap time as well as the fastest 5, 15, 20, and 25 lap averages in practice on Saturday. While he is more accident-prone here than most other tracks, Elliott has proven over the last several years that he is a legitimate top 5 contender at Darlington. That is exactly what we are looking for in our cash drivers.

Erik Jones ($7,100 DK, $7,800 FD)

Jones won the Fall race here, and no, I do not expect a repeat on Sunday. I do, however, love his 28th place starting position. While we faded Jones last week due to his lack of success after leaving JGR at Kansas, he has proven that he can still perform at Darlington as long as he stays clean. Admittedly, a top 10 finish would be a stretch for Jones due to his equipment downgrade and concerning 10 lap falloff, but I think he could easily sneak into the top 20, which would put him close to our +10 spot threshold.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($10,500 DK, $13,000 FD)

Truex starts on the pole on Sunday, not an inherent advantage at Darlington historically, but considering the other drivers in the top 6 he should have no problem leading the first stage at least. A former winner at Darlington, Truex has led 28 laps in four of the last five races here and has led more than 100 laps twice in that period. Martin knows how to run well here, picking up stage points in all but four stages since 2017, we will just need him to lead at least 100 laps from the pole and finish in the top 5 so he can make the perfect lineup.

Austin Cindric ($5,900 DK, $6,000 FD)

Cindric is a gut play at it’s best this weekend. He is ridiculously cheap and starting 25th this weekend. He ran the 17th best single lap time and had top ten 15, 20, 25 and 30 lap averages in practice on Saturday. He has two top 20 finishes here last year and has a realistic ceiling of a top 15 finish which is more than we could hope for considering his price.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,400 DK, $4,5000 FD)

Lajoie starts 34th on Sunday but he practiced much better than he qualified. Corey ran the 10th fastest single lap time during practice and top twenty 5, 10, 15 and 20 lap averages. While I don’t expect a top 15 finish from him, there is a real chance that Lajoie ends up in the top 20, which would put him in serious consideration for the perfect lineup.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Darlington that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($10,900 DK, $14,000 FD)

Aric Almirola ($6,300 DK, $6,200 FD)

Kevin Harvick ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($8,400 DK, $8,500 FD)

Blaney loves to mess up at Darlington and I don’t expect Sunday to be any different. Ryan starts 11th, which is further back than his average starting position over the last seven races but I still think he will lose spots over the course of the race. Blaney has two top 15 finishes over the last seven races here, which bodes poorly for this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 7-13 (-2.45 u)

Every week I think the bet offerings are terrible, and the following week they get worse. I like the odds on Harvick to win, Larson should be the favorite with Hamlin, Truex, and probably Harvick to follow, so we get some serious value on his number this weekend.

Again there were slim pickings on bets this weekend, but I really think there is a chance that Truex runs away with it on Sunday. I decided to hedge a little bit with a top 3 bet at +200 just in case he loses the race late.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 2-2 (1.65 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Goodyear 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!Noco