LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Goodyear 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Goodyear 400 Cheatsheet

Goodyear 400🏁

Last week’s race at Martinsville provided a decent amount of entertainment in the middle of the pack, but up front, Denny Hamlin laid the type of beatdown we have not seen very often in the Next Gen era. This Sunday, he looks equally dominant at one of his best tracks when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC, for the Goodyear 400. The “Lady in Black” is a 1.366 mile egg shaped oval that is wider in turns 1 and 2 than it is in turns 3 and 4. Ironically, this race is sponsored by Goodyear because the racing surface chews through tires.

We are starting to find the warmer weather, with temperatures expected to be in the high 80s on Sunday. However, there is only about a 10% chance of rain, and the track has lights, so there should be no issue with completing the race.

_{On to Darlington!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 293 laps will be run this week, and 73.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 250 laps should run under the green flag for 112.5 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) There will be at least 1 dominator, but they may not make the perfect lineup. A driver starting in the top 5 will lead more than 100 laps; what happens after that is much less predictable. The major dominator has failed to make the perfect lineup in four of the six Next Gen races, which is an insane statistic. We have to at least attempt to nail the dominator, then hope he doesn’t have an issue.

2) Focus on the top 5. The major dominator will come from the top 5. The major dominator may not finish the race. Each of the last six perfect lineups had at least one driver that started in the top 5. The only lesson we can take from that is at least one and maybe three perfect lineup drivers will be from the top 5 so we have to focus on those drivers first.

3) Fast cars will make it up front. With all this talk about the top 5, you would think front-loaded lineups would be the key. Drivers can make big moves in Darlington, so that might not be the best strategy. Good cars that qualified poorly will have plenty of opportunities to sneak into the top 10.

4) This is a rare basement double dip race. Pricing has been so tight over the last two seasons that I try to avoid the basement when I can, but this is one of the few tracks where punts don’t have to overperform. As long as a low priced drivers can pick up a handful of spots they have a chance to make the perfect lineup.

Stage 1: 90 Laps

Stage 2: 95 Laps

Stage 3: 108 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brad Keselowski ($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD): Keselowski is cheap and had a great car in practice. He starts 20th and has five straight top 14 finishes (including a win) here, and that should be good enough for cash games.

Erik Jones ($7,500 DK, $6,500 FD): At one point in his career Jones was the Darlington cheat code. While his track history has cooled down, he had a lightning-fast car and starts 34th, so all we need is a clean race on Sunday, and he should be just fine.

Daniel Suarez ($6,800 DK, $5,500 FD): Suarez is the cash driver that I worry about most in tournaments because I don’t think he has top 10 upside. Considering his low salary and 30th-place starting position, anything inside the top 15 would be an acceptable finish, which is a realistic expectation.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($9,900 DK, $12,500 FD): The top 5 is key, and Byron is on the pole. He is a previous winner here and has been in four of the previous six perfect lineups. I expect Byron to be the major dominator of the race, the question is whether he can stay clean for all 293 laps.

Michael McDowell ($6,600 DK, $5,200 FD): McDowell starts in the top 10, so he has a massive amount of downside. The good news is he finished in the top 10 in all three races. He stayed clean in the Next Gen era. I think McDowell is a high risk high reward play that could help differentiate our lineups on Sunday.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,500 DK, $4,500 FD): Stenhouse Jr starts 28th this weekend and has a ton of upside. He has three top 16 finishes in his last six races here, and at his salary, that would be more than enough to make the perfect lineup.

Josh Berry (7,800 DK, $7,800 FD): Berry does not appear in the good part of the Pitstop very often, but we can’t ignore his practice results. At the very least, he has a faster car than his 24th place starting position suggests and managed to finish 3rd in his one clean Darlington race.

Bargain Basement

Shane Van Gisbergen ($5,400 DK, $2,500 FD)

The entire price range is pitiful, but at least SVG starts 36th. I think there is enough value in the $6000 range that a double basement pick will not be necessary, but Van Gisbergen is my favorite option in this range for no particular reason besides his starting position.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Darlington that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($10,100 DK, $13,000 FD)

Justin Haley ($6,200 DK, $4,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Todd Gilliland ($6,100 DK, $4,000 FD)

While I love McDowell as the cheap driver starting towards the front that will finish well, the natural pivot would be Gilliland. Todd has never finished in the top 10 at Darlington which means he will have nowhere to go but down.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 6-8 (3.2 u)

We are seeing a bunch of names we are not used to today, and Austin Cindric adds himself to the list. Both drivers start in the top 6, but Preece is on a wild hot streak, and I am expecting some regression. My model predicts a 3rd place finish for Cindric vs a 7th place finish for Preece. A razor-thin margin, but the edge goes to Austin.

Yes, both of these drivers were mentioned previously as viable DFS plays, but Berry has only finished better than 13th once in three races, and Larson finished better than 5th twice in six races. I would rather bet the side that cashes in two out of every 3 races.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 1-2 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Goodyear 400 Cheatsheet

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