LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Goodyear 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Check out the Goodyear 400 Cheatsheet

Goodyear 400🏁

Apparently, Kansas Speedway subscribes to the Pitstop and took offense to my less-than-enthusiastic outlook on its upcoming race. Last Sunday, Kansas made sure everyone had some respect for its name after it produced a fantastic race and the closest finish in NASCAR history. This week, the Cup Series travels to the “Track Too Tough to Tame” Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC, for the Goodyear 400. The track is unique in every way. It is a 1.366 mile egg shaped oval with different banking and corner shape on each side of the egg. The racing surface chews up tires like no other and it’s unforgiving walls will no doubt give more than one driver a “Darlington Stripe” before the race is over.

My weather forecasting was just about as good as my bets last week, the 0% chance of rain at 2am Sunday morning turned into a several hour rain delay. I am looking to turning things around this weekend, however, with another 0% chance of rain this Sunday.

Also, before I forget, Happy Mother’s Day to our 2 female readers. NASCAR is fun and all, but we shouldn’t let it take away from showing our mothers, wives, and daughters the appreciation they deserve.

_{On to Darlington!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 293 laps will be run this week, and 73.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 250 laps should run under the green flag for 112.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Leading laps at Darlington is not all it’s cracked up to be. The major dominator in each of the last three races here failed to make the perfect lineup, or finish the race on the lead lap for that matter. That is destined to be an unsustainable trend, and as always, we should start our lineups with our dominators. Over the past four races, every driver that led more than 90 laps started in the top 5. The front row is not a huge boost for “The Lady in Black” but our top 5 drivers should be the extent of our dominator pool. Due to the high chance on incidence recently, I would not suggest doubly dipping into the top 5 in an attempt to gobble up every lap led. One top 5 driver should be enough to take down a tournament.

As you may have picked up from the previous paragraph, even the best drivers can have trouble at Darlington. On average, about 8 drivers finish at least 5 laps down (about 22%), meaning drivers can pick up spots simply by finishing the race near the lead lap. A top-10 finish is our target for place differential drivers, and drivers can make massive moves here. Interestingly, while drivers starting in the 30s don’t have a good record of making the perfect lineup in the next-gen era, drivers beginning 18-29 are really in the sweet spot. Eleven of the twenty-four perfect lineup drivers over the last four races have started in that range, something we should really pay attention to for our lineups this weekend.

Another peculiar thing about Darlington is that it’s one of the few non-superspeedways where low bargain basement drivers can finish well. While I wouldn’t load up on any particular value play, they will be integral to any successful lineup.

Stage 1: 90 Laps

Stage 2: 95 Laps

Stage 3: 108 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,800 DK, $10,500 FD)

Elliott is the most solid cash game play of this slate. He starts 31st on Sunday and is starting to heat up after a terrible 2023. Over his last four races here, Elliott has three top 8 finishes with a positive place differential, including a 5th place finish after starting 34th. Chase didn’t show much short-run speed in practice on Saturday, but his 5th best ten-lap average is quite encouraging. Elliot is relatively inexpensive with a high floor and solid ceiling, and he should be a staple in everyone’s cash game lineup.

Noah Gragson ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD)

Gragson is far from a frequent flyer of the Pitstop, but his speed in practice on Saturday is real, and he is starting dead last…there is nowhere he can go but forward. Noah only has one Cup race here, where he picked up 3 spots and finished 26th. Over the past two seasons, Gragson’s average finish at similar tracks is 24, which is a reasonable expectation for him this Sunday. While that score will not land Noah in the perfect lineup, he will be more than useful in cash games.

Tournament Targets

Tyler Reddick ($10,300 DK, $12,500 FD)

While starting on the pole doesn’t guarantee a dominant performance, Reddick has been one of the best drivers at Darlington since the introduction of the next gen car. Tyler has finished in the top 3 in three of his last four races here including last Fall, when he led 90 laps. Reddick turned a pitiful top single lap speed in practice on Saturday but was able to piece together a top 10 twenty and twenty-five lap average. Clean air should help Reddick stay out in front during the early portion of the race, but 293 laps will provide ample opportunities for the Darlington Stripe to end Tyler’s day early.

Michael McDowell ($6,500 DK, $6,000 FD)

I love myself a good high-risk play in the risky play of the week, and McDowell is starting 16th with a boom or bust history, to say the least. Michael has had accidents in three of the last five races at Darlington, but his two clean finishes resulted in a 6th and 7th. McDowell was fantastic in practice, posting the best single lap speed and top 11 ten, fifteen, and twenty lap averages. By no means is McDowell a high percentage play, but if he hits, he could put up a nice score at low ownership.

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie ($5,700 DK, $4,200 FD)

Not the sexiest pick of the year but LaJoie projects to be one of the highest scoring drivers in this range. Corey starts 24th and has a top finish of 22nd in the next gen era. He ran a great single lap speed and top 20 lap averages. My model loves Gilliland but I think LaJoie is the safer option.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Darlington that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($11,300 DK, $14,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,600 DK, $5,800 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,800 DK, $8,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Carson Hocevar ($5,800 DK, $5,500 FD)

Again, this is not the sexiest call here, but Hocevar has not been good at similar tracks this season. He starts 21st, has one of the worst 10 lap averages, and has been struggling overall. No thanks.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 9-13 (-1.65 u)

Logano starts 14th on Sunday, and my model predicts a 6th-place finish. He has an average finish of 8.75 over the last four races here and posted a top-10 single-lap speed in practice on Saturday. As tight as top-10 pricing has been this season, this should easily be a -125 line.

I am calling my shot here a little bit, Truex has been a low key savage over the last two seasons at similar tracks, with an average similar finish of 5. Recent history here tips the scales in Chastain’s favor, however, and I love getting this wide of a spread on two drivers that should be just about even.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 5-7(+6.9 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Goodyear 400 Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!