Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Go Bowling at the Glen 🏁

Finally, NASCAR returns to our lives after a two-week Olympic vacation. I enjoyed the first week off as much as the next person but this three-week stretch was brutal (yet refreshing). I hope everyone got to enjoy some fun in the sun and is ready for an exciting 14-week stretch as we march straight through to the championship. Our first stop along the way is Sunday's Go Bowling at the Glen from Watkins Glen International. The track is a 2.45 mile 7 turn road course in Watkins Glen, NY. The weather is not great this weekend but we will have rain tires so I expect the race to go off without a hitch. Keep an eye on contest sizes going forward because as football season approaches the prize pools start to shrink, these will be the last few weeks DK will feature these relatively big contests so plan accordingly.

On to The Glen!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 90 laps will be run this and 22.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 76 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 34.2 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This is the fifth road race of the season so we should have a feel for how to attack this race. There are very few dominator points available so we will want to focus on drivers that can finish well, ideally in the top 8. The last three perfect lineups had at least five drivers finishing in the top 8, including the race winner and driver who led the most laps. Starting position is usually pretty helpful in determining who will dominate and win the race, but all of those races occurred with practice/qualifying so I think we can expand our dominator field to anyone in the top 10. Chase Elliott ran away with each of the last two races here so he was able to scoop up most of the laps led and fastest laps points, but the previous races at the Glen have been much more spread out. I expect one dominator to emerge on Sunday and we will need to nail him down if we want to take down a tournament.

After identifying our dominator, we should construct a lineup with drivers able to sneak into the top 8. That is a pretty tall task and slightly more specific than we usually look for. Generally, at road courses, we want drivers that can finish well will positive place diff, but at this track we need to be nearly perfect to take down a GPP. Each of the last four perfect lineups had two drivers that started in the top 10 and finished in the top 8, including the dominator, but the rest of the lineup was filled out with drivers that started a little further back (each had at least four total drivers that started inside the top 20). We should focus most of our energy on finding drivers starting in the top 20 that can finish in the top 8. Bargain basement drivers are viable this weekend but even they need to finish in the top 20.

Stage1: 20 laps, Stage 2: 20 laps, Stage 3: 50 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 10

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,600 DK, $14,500 FD)

This is not a groundbreaking pick by any means but not everyone needs to be. Elliott is in his own class when it comes to road racing and I will not let his 11th place starting position scare me away. He has won 6 of the last 8 road races and the last two races at the Glen. Elliott is the most expensive driver on FD but is cheaper than Kyle Busch on DK which I believe provides a decent value. He doesn't even need to win or dominate to make the perfect lineup so he is as close to a lock and load play there will be this season. He is good, play him, that is all.

Chris Buescher ($7,800 DK, $6,800 FD)

Buescher is a sneaky good mid range cash game option on Sunday. He is starting 24th and does not have the top 8 potential that I would like for my tournament teams but Buescher does have a very consistent road history. He has finished between 11th and 18th in each of the road races this season with positive place diff on two occasions. He is equally as impressive at the Glen with three straight top 20 finishes. I don't expect miracles from Buescher but he is a high floor option to build your cash team around.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($9,400 DK, $12,000 FD)

When building lineups for NASCAR I like to envision how the race will play out in my head and construction teams according to a narrative. I fully expect Chase Elliott to come from 11th and be in the front row by the competition caution and what happens from there will make or break the slate. In the scenario that Elliott does not start leading laps, I think Larson is the next obvious dominator. In the event that Elliott dominates, that's where Hamlin comes in. We need drivers that start well and finish well and that is Hamlin's M.O., especially at the Glen. While Larson has a much higher chance to win, he also has had his fair share of bad luck and road tracks, and is not comforting. Hamlin on the other hand has three top 8 finishes in road races this year and three top 4 finishes in his last four races here. Hamlin starts 6th on Sunday and I think he can sneak into the top 3 which should be enough to land him in the perfect lineup.

Kurt Busch ($10,000 DK, $10,500 FD)

I try to avoid loading the Pitstop up with high priced options but we need drivers that have top 8 potential for tournaments and Kurt fits the bill. He starts 17th on Sunday so Busch has a ton of place differential potential baked in already. He has three top 6 finishes this season at road courses and 7 straight top 11 finishes at the Glen. Most eyes may gravitate to Kyle this weekend but I think Kurt is actually the much better play.

Erik Jones ($7,000 DK, $5,500 FD)

I generally start building lineups with dominators but it will be the rest of the lineup that makes the biggest impact this weekend. Specifically, I think sorting through the drivers starting between 21-27 will be crucial for success on Sunday. Jones is one of those drivers, starting 22nd, and I believe he has the highest ceiling of the group. He has finished between 11th and 19th in every road race this season (which isn't the top 8 we are looking for) and has three top 10 finishes at the Glen in his only three Cup races there (now we are talking). Jones is tracking to be a popular option but I think he is a great pivot to drivers like Buescher, especially in GPPs.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($5,500 DK, $5,000 FD)

Preece is grossly mispriced considering he is the only bargain-basement driver with slate winning upside.... but he can also be a catastrophic landmine. He has two top 15 finishes this year and three top 15 finishes in his last four road races. He is clearly the top satellite option but you can make an argument for Lajoie in tournaments and Davison in cash. Overall I am going to take a gamble on Preece and hope his bad mojo is out of his system at Road America.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Glen that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($8,600 DK, $10,000 FD)

Ross Chastain ($8,100 DK, $8,500 FD)

Chase Briscoe ($8,300 DK, $8,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Newman ($7,300 DK, $4,500 FD)

Newman is the trap of the race as far as I'm concerned. He is starting 28th and will be very popular from what I can see. Newman does not seem to have the top 8 potential that I am looking for, however, and honestly might not crack the top 15. He has 0 finishes better than 20th at road courses this season and a top finish of 15th in his last 6 races at the Glen. I do not expect Newman to completely implode but picking up 6 spots and tanking 35% of lineups is right around what I am looking for from him.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Go Bowling at the Glen cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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