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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Go Bowling at the Glen
NASCAR DFS
LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Go Bowling at the Glen
🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x2) FWRC qualifier @joejets19
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Go Bowling at the Glen🏁
NASCAR has a road race problem this season, which is unfortunate because there has been a significant increase in the number of road courses this year. The elimination of stage breaks was supposed to let the best cars succeed, which may well have been accomplished but it has effectively drained all of their entertainment value. Nevertheless, the show must go on, and this Sunday the Cup Series travels to Watkins Glen International in Watkins Glen, NY for the Go Bowling at the Glen. The track is a 2.45 miles long and features 7 turns. It is one of the two legacy road tracks (with Sonoma) on the NASCAR schedule and is known for its high speeds and straightaways. There have been 13 unique playoff-eligible race winners this season and two races left until the playoffs so things are really heating up around the cutline. Considering the chaos that will ensue at Daytona next weekend, this may be the best chance for some bubble drivers to stamp their ticket to the postseason.
Rain tires and windshield wipers are a thing at road courses but we couldn’t have asked for better weather this weekend. Mother Nature is more focused on spoiling other people’s weekends for once.
On to The Glen!
Scoring Breakdown
At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:
Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 90 laps will be run this week, and 22.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).
Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.
Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 85 laps should run under the green flag for 38.25 possible DK points).
Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.
Lineup Construction 🏗
Last week’s road race played out similarly to how we expected, with 5 drivers starting in the top 13 making the perfect lineup. The truly odd part was three of the top four drivers made it in as well, which I don’t recall ever happening before. Passing has been incredibly difficult at road races over the past two seasons and with the elimination of stage breaks the running order has become increasingly stagnant. This week, we will continue to focus on frontloading our lineups because I anticipate another low-incident race. This is a double-edged sword, however, because if any driver is one of the few unlucky ones that does have an issue, your day is effectively over. This built type is incredibly high risk, high reward, but I don’t see any other way to attack this slate.
Dominators are as important as how well said driver finishes. At Indy, the main dominator won the race to the point was fairly moot, but last year at this very race track, the driver that led the most laps finished 4th with a negative place differential and didn’t make the perfect lineup. While I think almost all of the laps led will come from drivers starting in the top 5, the key will be to roster the drivers we think can win the race, and ideally, they will lead some laps on the way.
Bargain basement drivers are in a tough spot again this weekend. In tournaments, I would avoid this price range as often as I can. In cash, a punt is always on the table if we can roster an extra stud but a double punt will lead to disaster.
Stage 1: 20 Laps
Stage 2: 20 Laps
Stage 3: 50 Laps
Lineup Foundation Targets
Chase Elliott ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)
Elliott is the highest-priced driver on both sites this weekend, and for good reason. He is still on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and his situation is getting more dire by the race. Luckily for him, Chase is incredible at Watkins Glen. Over the last four races here, he has two wins, a second, and a 4th place finish. He starts 15th on Sunday, so he has a significant amount of place differential potential. A win gets Elliott into the playoffs, and a 2nd place finish most likely gets him into the perfect lineup, but I expect Chase to give it his all this weekend to avoid having his season depend on Daytona.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/f77ae83a-ff1a-4662-a19a-878f15202891/Screenshot__746_.png)
Kevin Harvick ($7,600 DK, $6,500 FD)
While rostering Harvick starting 33rd goes against everything I said about frontloading our lineups, he is probably the safest cash play in the field. Kevin started poorly last week and was able to pick up 15 spots, which was the second biggest move, but it was not enough to land him in the perfect lineup. Since there are fewer massive place differential options this weekend, I expect Harvick to be one of the highest owned drivers in cash games. At The Glen, Kevin has four straight top 12 finishes and only needs an 18th place finish to be in contention for the perfect lineup.
Tournament Targets
William Byron ($8,800 DK, $8,500 FD)
Byron is the lowest priced driver starting in the top 3 and arguably has the best car in the field. Last weekend, Byron was able to overcome a pass through penalty to race his way into the top 15. On Saturday, William posted the 3rd best single lap speed as well as the best 10 lap average and then went on to qualify 2nd. While Byron’s track history isn’t stellar, he has raced incredibly well most of the season and has race winning potential.
Chris Buescher ($9,100 DK, $10,000 FD)
I may be the biggest Chris Buescher fan in DFS, but paying over $8,000 for him makes my skin crawl. His price and starting position make me think he will go very low owned, which makes him quite the intriguing tournament option. Chris is the only driver in the field with an average finish at true road courses this season inside the top 10 with an average positive place differential greater than 10. Since he is starting 13th on Sunday and needs a finish of 5th or better to hit value we will need an average race out of him at worst. This is the definition of a high risk high reward play so I wouldn’t play Buescher in cash or more than 25% of my tournament builds.
Bargain Basement
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,900 DK, $5,000 FD)
Stenhouse is ridiculously cheap this weekend and in a fantastic spot. He starts 28th on Sunday, his average finish in his last four races here is 16.25, and his average finish at road courses this season is 14.667. A top 20 finish is all he needs to hit value this weekend, and I see that as his floor.
Other Driver To Consider
Here are three more drivers I like at The Glen that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,500 DK, $13,000 FD)
Ryan Blaney ($7,500 DK, $6,800 FD)
Bubba Wallace ($6,900 DK, $4,500 FD)
Top Driver to Avoid
Michael McDowell ($9,600 DK, $11,500 FD)
Buescher just went back to back to shock the world a couple of weeks ago, but I am not expecting McDowell to repeat that feat on Sunday. While he completely dominated at Indy, another road course, the top 10 is much more dangerous this weekend. With his increased price, you can only afford to roster McDowell if you think he can win, and that is not my expectation for him on Sunday.
Pitstop Picks
2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)
2023 results: 11-30 (-10 u)
DK is putting up limited lines again, but I actually think there is some value in their top 5 numbers. While I didn’t write up Bell, he is starting 7th and should be a real top 5 contender. Due to his price, a top 5 doesn’t really do much for us from a DFS perspective, but he is a solid road racer with a fast Toyota, we could do much worse.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8198833b-9054-45e5-8195-e3cc3bd4c086/Screenshot__743_.png)
Bubba Wallace Top 10 +400 (1u)
Another Toyota I find very intriguing this Sunday is Bubba Wallace. He is starting 12th and has a handful of slower cars ahead of him. In a low incidence race, all he needs to do is not get in his own way, and he will have top 10 potential. While that is much easier said than done for Wallace, it is still worth a throw away unit.
Pitstop Poll
2023 Results: 3-3 (3.85 u)
A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:
Who will finish in the Top 10 |
Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!
Be sure to download the Go Bowling at the Glen and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!