LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Go Bowling at the Glen

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Go Bowling at the Glen Cheatsheet

Go Bowling at the Glen🏁

Last Sunday, Joey Logano punched his ticket to the second round of the playoffs and the big loser of the race had to be Kyle Larson (my fade). An early crash dropped Larson to 10th place in the standings, only two spots above the cut line. This Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Watkins Glen International in Watkins Glen, NY for the Go Bowling at the Glen…race? The track is a 7-turn, 2.454-mile road course known for its long straightaways that generate enormous speed. Oddly enough, not all road courses are made the same, and some drivers do better at Watkins than they do elsewhere and vice versa.

This is one of the shortest races of the season in terms of laps, miles, and time elapsed. That leaves very little opportunity for Mother Nature to mess with us. There is only a 3% chance of rain the entire day, and even if there is a sprinkle, we have rain tires.

_{On to Watkins Glen!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 90 laps will be run this week, and 22.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 83 laps should run under the green flag for 37.35 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Stage breaks are back at road courses, which significantly changes our approach. Passing is very hard at this track type, and as we saw last year, if a fast car gets up front, they can run away from the field. With the reintroduction of stage breaks, drivers can pit right before the stage ends and start the following stage at the front of the field. This strategy significantly lowers the ability of one driver to dominate a meaningful portion of the race. Therefore, instead of focusing on drivers who will lead a bunch of laps on Sunday, we should focus on drivers who can finish in the top 15. Over the last four races, all but two perfect lineup drivers finished in the top 15. Unlike other road courses, however, drivers can make big moves at Watkins Glen, so front-loading lineups are not always a successful strategy. In fact, ten of the previous eighteen perfect lineup drivers have started 19th or worse.

The bargain basement is a dicey proposition at Watkins Glen. Only three basement drivers have made the perfect lineup over the last four races and two of them account for the two drivers that finished outside the top 15 I would try to avoid the basement as much as possible this weekend in tournaments but one basement driver shouldn’t be too detrimental in cash.

Stage 1: 20 Laps

Stage 2: 20 Laps

Stage 3: 50 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD)

Larson is a fantastic road racer and a two time winner at the Glen, including the only time the new rules package was run here with stage breaks. Kyle was fast in practice, positing the third-best single lap speed and top six, with 5 and 10 laps averages, but he only managed to qualify for the 20th. Kyle dug a slight hole last week so I expect him to be firing on all cylinders this Sunday. This is a road course that fast cars and good drivers can move through the field so look for Larson to make his way into the top 10 before the afternoon is over.

Ryan Blaney ($7,400 DK, $7,200 FD)

Blaney may be the most mispriced driver of the slate. While the results may not always be there, Ryan always finds himself in the mix at road races, and this Sunday, he has the added benefit of starting 30th. Blaney’s average finish of 16th here and at similar tracks ranks him pretty much in the middle of the pack, but his suppressed price and place differential potential make him an ideal cash play. Even if we settle for an “average” finish for Blaney this Sunday, that would generate 43 points which is more than enough to pay off his salary.

Tournament Targets

Ross Chastain ($7,500 DK, $6,800 FD)

Chastain brought a rocket ship to New York this weekend and he used it to capture the pole for Sunday’s race. I don’t particularly look for Chastain at road courses, but the man loves nothing more than being an epic troll, and a win here would continue his legacy. Ross does have a win at COTA on his resume but the Glen has not been kind to him. What makes Chastain so intriguing this weekend is his ultimate goal, which is to take home the win. Stage points mean nothing to Ross’s season since he is not a playoff driver. I expect him to short-pit both stage breaks and ultimately run the optimal strategy to be at least in contention at the end.

Michael McDowell ($8,500 DK, $10,000 FD)

Almost nothing about McDowell jumps out of the page at me but my model likes him to finish 4th on Sunday. Michael starts 10th this weekend, leaving him in a weird no man’s land considering his price. While an electrical issue makes his average finish at the Glen look much worse than it is, his price demands a top 5 finish for him to hit value. I expect McDowell’s ownership to be in the single digits, and, like Chastain, he has nothing to race for but a win. This could provide a high-leverage spot we can take advantage of in big tournaments.

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie ($5,600 DK, $6,000 FD)

I dislike everything about this price range this weekend. There are very few options, and the drivers with decent ceilings are all starting far enough forward to take them out of cash contention. LaJoie starts 18th and will have to do everything in his power to maintain track position, let alone pick up a couple of spots. If he sneaks into the top 15, it would be a minor miracle and most likely enough for him to land in the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Watkins Glen that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Tyler Reddick ($9,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Chase Elliott ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($7,000 DK, $5,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ty Gibbs ($9,200 DK, $11,500 FD)

Gibbs is fairly priced, but he starts 15th, and I can’t see him cracking the top 10. Ty wasn’t special in practice and posted a negative place differential in both races at the Glen. Monster names are starting right around him, and they can’t all pick up spots; I think Gibbs will be the odd man out on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 21-29 (2.45 u)

BetMGM continues its takeover of the H2H market. They have a much smaller selection, but there are some juice options. I fully acknowledge this is a completely nuts bet, but it jives with my model. Briscoe hasn’t run well here, but he can at least hold his position. Truex is a favorite to win the race but is on a horrendous cold streak. Truex is one pit penalty away from losing this H2H, and I can’t pass up this opportunity. I wouldn't blame you if you want to lower this to a half or quarter-unit bet, but I’m rolling with a full unit.

Ok, I know rolling out two long shots is not our deal but we are barely plus money over the season, if we are going to make some real money on the year we will have to take some chances. LaJoie was good in practice and finished in the top 10 in 14% of my model simulations. DK is offering him a 10% chance of finishing in the top 10. While it may be the slimmest of margins, there is some value in LaJoie’s number this Sunday, and that’s why we are throwing a small stab at it.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-14 (+12.45 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Go Bowling at the Glen cheatsheet

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