🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Go Bowling at the Glen🏁

There are only two races remaining until the playoffs begin but there is still plenty of time for several driver's playoff dreams to come true. On Sunday, NASCAR will travel to Watkins Glen International, in Watkins Glen, NY for the Go Bowling at the Glen. The track is a 7 turn, 2.45 mile road course, the last true road course on the schedule. There are several things we can learn from the previous road races this season. Passing is incredibly difficult at this track type and a variety of pit strategies are employed throughout the race because a driver can pit under green right before the stage caution in the hopes of starting the next stage in a better position. This should play into our lineup building decisions, and I will touch on that in the Lineup Construction section. Overall, we are in store for an action packed Sunday as we continue our march to the playoffs.

On to Watkins Glen!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 90 laps will be run, and 22.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 80 laps should run under the green flag for 36 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Since the playoffs are right around the corner, all eyes will be on Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. on Sunday. Both drivers are in the top 4 in the season points standings but are currently winless and are at risk of missing the playoff if a first-time driver wins either of the next two races. You may ask why this is important, and the answer lies in the fact that this is a road race. Pit strategies have proven crucial at road courses this year, and passing has not been easy. Blaney, who is in the points lead against Truex and all other non-playoff drivers, is rumored to want to hunt for stage point, possibly putting himself on a sub-optimal race-winning strategy. Truex, and to a greater extent the other bubble drivers, will be gunning for a win no matter what because stage points are useless at this point.

To build a successful lineup this week, we will have to pair that information with the current trends of this track type. I recommend front-loaded lineups at road courses because finishing position is immensely important. Ideally, we will look to roster at least 5 drivers with top 10 potential. For that to happen, we may need to roster up to three drivers that start in the top 10 and finish in the top 10. One of the last four perfect lineups featured six drivers starting in the top 20, five of which finished in the top 10. This goes against the conventional wisdom for most races, but I expect that to be the optimal attack this week. Dominator points are limited, so I wouldn't waste too much time searching for a dominator. Instead, I think we should focus on bubble drivers with a good road history that can pick up a top 10. We should avoid the bargain basement almost entirely in tournaments, but one safe, low-priced driver is acceptable in cash.

Stage 1: 20 laps, Stage 2: 20 laps, Stage 3: 50 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,200 DK, $11,500 FD)

I spent a decent amount of time dissecting the Blaney vs Truex situation above, and that lead me to Blaney as a solid building block for our cash lineups. Blaney's track history isn't the best, only posting two top 10 finishes in five career races here, but he has been very consistent this season on road courses. Ryan comes into Sunday with three top 11 finishes in the four road races this season. Blaney's sole blemish, a 26th place finish at the Indy Road Course, should not scare us off of him because he actually ran very well until a late crash which is evident by his average running position of 5th. Blaney starts 26th this weekend and has a great chance to provide a top 10 finish with race winning upside at a very reasonable price.

Chris Buescher ($7,800 DK, $8,000 FD)

Buescher did a tire test at the Glen earlier this season that immediately paid dividends with a second-place finish at Sonoma. He continued his great road course run with a 6th place finish at Road America and a 10th at Indy. Chris is no longer an under-the-radar pick and will carry some extra risk from his 7th place starting position but I still think he will be a solid cash game option this Sunday.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,700 DK, $14,000 FD)

While everyone will be talking about bubble drivers, it would be foolish to overlook Elliott this weekend. Chase is looking to play spoiler from the pole position on Sunday and pick up his 5th win. He has been a road course powerhouse throughout his career and that includes The Glen, where he has two wins and a second place finish in the last three races here. Elliott only has one finish outside the top 8 at road courses this season (the dreaded Indy RC) and is looking to continue his dominance on Sunday.

Erik Jones ($6,700 DK, $5,200 FD)

Jones is starting 31st on Sunday and will have his work cut out. He is a good road racer with an average finish of 12th in his last three races at the Glen. He has made a habit of qualifying poorly and still producing a solid finish this season. Jones' average finish at road courses this year is 18th, but considering his average positive place differential of 13.25, he is no stranger to making his way through the field.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD)

Gilliland may have top 10 upside this weekend considering his 19th place starting position. Todd has an average finish this year of 17.25 at road courses. Pair that with his average place differential of 6.25, which is pretty much the best you could hope for in any driver in this range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at The Glen that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick ($8,400 DK, $8,200 FD)

Cole Custer ($6,300 DK, $6,200 FD)

Christopher Bell ($8,700 DK, $9,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

AJ Allmendinger ($9,600 DK, $10,500 FD)

I love fading Allmendinger at road courses because of his high price and "road ringer" reputation. He starts 6th on Sunday, behind some very fast cars, and does not have much room to move forward. AJ will need to win the race to provide value and his average finish of 15th here and 17th at road courses this season indicates he will not be up to the task.

Pitstop Picks

14-36 (-12.1 u)

Trusting my model worked well last weekend for the Cindric. I will see what it can do with a top 10 bet. I am not overly impressed by Gibbs like most, but he has an average projected finish of 9.6 in my models, so let's throw a unit on it and trust the process.

Both drivers are evenly matched, and I am surprised DK even offered a line like this. Head to head at road courses, these drivers are 2-2 this season (2-1 Gilliland if we omit Indy), so I would rather Gilliland at almost even money than have to pay up for Burton.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Go Bowling at the Glen cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!