Written by @joejets19

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GEICO 500 🏁

Last week featured some late-race drama which will serve as an appetizer to the chaos we are in store for on Sunday. One of the more predictable tracks on the circuit (Richmond) is being followed by a superspeedway known for crashes and action. The GEICO 500 will be held on Sunday afternoon at Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, AL. The track is a 2.66 mile steeply banked tri-oval. While restrictor plates have been replaced by tapered spacers and aero-ducts, Talladega and Daytona are still sometimes referred to as restrictor-plate races because every car in the field has just about the same top speed. This will cause the field to either ride single file for long stretches but then bunch up in a massive pack at the end of stages, sometimes going three wide and five deep. When an incident occurs in the front of the pack a chain reaction crash will follow, a "Big One", that can take out a significant number of drivers and flip the race on its head. We will discuss how to capitalize on the variance later. As of right now it's looking like the weather should not be an issue on Sunday but that is always subject to change.

On to Talladega!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run this and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 165 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 74.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

The inevitability of a "Big One" makes superspeedway DFS infuriating and exhilarating all the at the same time. Massive wins (and losses) can formulate at any time and you will never know exactly where you stand until the checkered flag waves. Ideally we will take this knowledge and develop lineups that both limit our catastrophic downside and maximize our ceiling. Dominators are almost a non-factor here and we should not be looking to roster any on Sunday. Instead we should fill our entire roster with place differential driver, especially those starting in the rear of the field. While the magic number is 26 at Daytona, the perfect lineup at Talladega will feature one to two drivers starting in the top 20 and sometimes even the top 10. That is an incredibly risky approach and should only be used in large scale tournaments and satellites. In cash games especially, solidify your floor by picking six drivers starting 20th or worse and don't feel obligated to spend your entire salary cap, it is not uncommon for up to $10,000 to be left on the table.

One thing that I have noticed is the spring races at Dega have been slightly calmer so we may want to move our target range up a little but overall back loading lineups is the way to go. You may notice in the cheatsheet that I went a little off script and produced a model for this race. I tend to avoid doing them for superspeedways because they are notoriously unreliable but I published the one that seemed to have a realistic winner and a solid balance of back marker drivers finishing well. As always the model predictions are entirely developed by me and not related to Linestar's projections.

Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 68 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 20-25 (not announced yet)

Lineup Foundation Targets

Justin Haley ($5,900 DK, $3,500 FD)

Right when I thought we lost our Superspeedway ringer, Haley has taken that mantle. Albeit fairly flukey, he is a former winner at Daytona who has shown the ability to put up impressive finishes in both the Cup and Xfinity series. Haley is starting 34th on Sunday and has an average place differential of +15 and an average finish of 21.5 in two races here. Haley checks just about every box we are looking for on Sunday, he is cash safe with GPP winning upside.

Quinn Houff ($4,600 DK, $2,500 FD)

Another driver you don't normally see highlighted in the Pistop, Houff has a solid two race history at Talladega. In both races, he had a positive place differential with a 13th and 27th place finish. He is starting 32nd on Sunday which is a little further forward than I would like but overall he is a relatively safe option for a crazy race.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Preece ($6,400 DK, $8,000 FD)

We are making our way towards the front of the field and Preece, starting 29th, is a great tournament option on Sunday. He actually has the best place differential in the field (+17.25) and an astounding average finish here of 11.5. Preece has two top 10 finishes here and has never finished worse than 18th in four races. Preece will be fairly popular this weekend and maybe "due" for a poor finish considering how hard it is to run five consecutive clean races here but I think we should roll the dice on him one more time and delay the fade until the fall.

Erik Jones ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

As we keep moving up towards the front of the field we land on Erik Jones, starting 22nd. Jones is interesting this weekend because he is coming off of two straight Talladega top 10s and is starting further back than he is used to. He surprisingly has a negative average place differential in his last five, mostly due to one bad race, despite picking up at least seven spots in four of his last five races here.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($8,500 DK, $11,000 FD)

Stenhouse joins his rightful place in the Pitstop. Even at a high variance track like Talladega, he provides a different type of definition of boom or bust. In his last seven races here, he has six top 9 finishes and three bottom 15 finishes. Starting 17th, Stenhouse is by no means a safe option but he will be a low-owned driver with proven top 10 potential.

Pay-up Option

Chase Elliott ($10,300 DK, $11,700 FD)

Since this entire newsletter is full of cheap drivers, I like to highlight an expensive driver in this spot during superspeedway races. Elliott is starting 8th on Sunday and always seems to find his way up front at Dega at some point. The key is whether he can turn frontrunning into a solid finish. Elliott has four top 8 finishes in his last 6 races here but also has two complete bombs, finishing 31st and 38th. There is no reason to use him in cash but if you want to take a stab at a driver starting in the top 10, you could do much worse than Elliott.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Talladega that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Michael McDowell ($7,200 DK, $5,500 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($10,100 DK, $13,500 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($6,400 DK, $9,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr

I plan on fading the top 6 but I will call these drivers out by name because it has worked for me in the past. Hamlin is starting on the pole and there is only one place to go from there, down. He was able to win from the pole last Fall but I will chalk that up as an anomaly. Truex is starting 3rd and has an even worse history with only one top 20 finish in the last nine.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the GEICO 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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