LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Geico 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Geico 500🏁

There may not be a more drastic change of pace this season than the transition from last week’s race to the event that is set to unfold on Sunday. NASCAR is going from an unremarkable short track race to a giant, chaotic superspeedway when the Cup Series travels to Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, AL for the Geico 500. The track is a massive 2.66-mile, steeply banked tri-oval that promotes high speeds and tons of action. Like Daytona, Talladega is known as a superspeedway (formerly a restrictor plate track) and the strategy for attacking this slate will be slightly different than most other weeks but we will discuss that more in the Lineup Construction section.

Temperatures look cool and cloudy during the race, with very little chance of rain. Talladega does not have lights, but I do not expect that to be a significant issue.

_{On to Dega!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 188 laps will be run this week, and 47 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 160 laps should run under the green flag for 72 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

This is now the third superspeedway race of the season (Daytona and Atlanta were the other two), so we should know how to attack this slate. Feel free to skip the rest of the paragraph if you do not want a quick refresher. Due to the size and banking of the track, NASCAR must artificially limit how fast the cars can go, essentially giving every car the same top speed. In turn, this promotes pack racing, a cluster of 15 to 20 cars running within inches of each other in the hopes of reducing drag and maximizing the overall speed of the group. This type of racing is inherently chaotic because one false move not only affects one car but can set off a chain reaction crash that can wipe out a significant portion of the field in an instant, known as a “Big One.’ These crashes are more of an eventuality than a theoretical probability, so we will need to consider this when constructing our lineups.

Over the last few seasons, while the general principles of superspeedway strategy have been universally successful, each of the three tracks has its nuances. Daytona is strictly a stack-the-back situation, Atlanta will have a dominator or two, and Talladega is a bit of a mix. While no driver has led more than 63 laps in the last eight races here, a driver starting in the top 10 can make the perfect lineup if they lead enough laps. Also, drivers starting 30+ are not a shoo-in for the perfect lineup, perfect lineups haven’t featured more than 3 drivers starting 30th or worse since 2016. Our money will be made in the 10-29 range this weekend, selectively picking out which drivers we think will be able to survive the race and pick up enough spots to differentiate themselves from the field.

In tournaments, I wouldn’t be opposed to lineups with 1 driver starting in the top 10, one to two drivers starting 30th, or worse than the remaining spots being filled with drivers starting in between. Don’t be afraid to leave $2,500-$8,000 on the table, but winning lineups are not as unorthodox at Talladega as they are at Daytona so don’t go as crazy.

In cash, there is no need to assume the risk of a top 10 driver so three 30+ drivers and three 10-29 drivers are ok. I worry that loading up on drivers starting 30+ will limit the ceiling of our cash team a bit so that may not be an idea strategy this weekend.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 60 Laps

Stage 3: 68 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,100 DK, $13,000 FD)

Elliott is a fantastic superspeedway racer, a two-time winner at Talladega, and starting 29th on Sunday…an almost unbeatable combination. Chase does not usually start this far back in the field, in fact, he has only started in the 24th or worse three times in 29 career races at Daytona/Talladega, and in those races he has an average finish of 8.67 with two top 7 finishes. Elliott just came back from injury last weekend and hopefully used that race to shake some of the rust off leaving him primed and ready for a good run on Sunday.

Noah Gragson ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

Gragson is not generally a driver that gets a ton of love in the Pitstop, but he starts 30th on Sunday and should provide a nice combination of safety and ceiling for our cash lineups. He has been fairly reliable at superspeedways in his young Cup career, with three races with positive place differential and three top 20 finishes, including both Talladega races last season. I feel like his 5th place finishes at Daytona last Summer was a bit of an outlier but I still think Gragson will be more than useable this weekend.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($8,900 DK, $9,500 FD)

We will need to be very careful with our tournament player pool on Sunday, but I think Busch has much more upside than downside. Kyle starts 17th this weekend so there is considerable risk in rostering him, but I believe he will be much lower owned than some of the other drivers in that range, specifically Bubba Wallace. Busch is not known much for his superspeedway success, but he has posted a positive place differential in each of the last 5 Talladega/Daytona races and always seems to throw in a couple of laps led for good measure. I am looking for Busch to go considerably under-owned this weekend, which makes him a perfect fit for our tournament lineups.

Ryan Blaney ($10,300 DK, $13,500 FD)

We are most likely going to need a driver starting in the top 10 if we want to win a big tournament, so it is fitting that Blaney, starting 5th, is my risky driver of the week. Ryan is no stranger to starting well at superspeedways and still turning in a solid finish with some laps led. He has a win and a 2nd place finish in his last six races at Talladega and a win at Daytona within the same time period. Blaney is by no means a cash safe option, but he has a significant amount of upside.

Bargain Basement

Riley Herbst ($5,000 DK, $4,500 FD)

I always write up Ty Dillon in this spot, and he always disappoints me. Herbst has close to zero name recognition but performed phenomenally at the Daytona 500 this season. No, I do not expect a repeat performance but a driver starting 36th with top 20 upside is exactly what we are looking for in a punt so we might as well take a low owned shot.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Talladega that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Michael McDowell ($6,800 DK, $5,500 FD)

Erik Jones ($6,700 DK, $6,800 FD)

Ross Chastain ($9,400 DK, $11,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Denny Hamlin ($9,900 DK, $12,000 FD)

I got completely burned by Preece last weekend but this is another week I refuse to play the polesitter. There is an outside chance that Hamlin dominates the race but that has not happened at Talladega since 2016. Hamlin is dangerous and always a threat to win but there is no chance he ends up in any of my lineups, there is way to much risk and only one path for him to make it onto the perfect lineup.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 4-10 (-5.05 u)

There is nothing better than plus money H2Hs at superspeedways. Hamlin is on the pole, Elliott is starting 29th and at any other track type Hamlin would probably run away with this. At Talladega, however, the odds should be just about even and the fact that I can get Elliott at +110 is down right delightful.

Long shots at superspeedways are a thing, especially long shot that I think have legitimate top 5 potential. Busch is sneaky good at superspeedways and shouldn’t be this big of an underdog here.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 2-2 (1.65 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Geico 500 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!Noco