LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Geico 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Geico 500🏁

Contrary to popular belief, last week’s race did not take place at the superspeedway that starts with a T; that would be this Sunday. Tires were the story of Texas, and unfortunately, it seemed like every driver featured in the Pitstop had some sort of issue. We look to get back on track this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, AL for the Geico 500. The track is a 2.66 mile steeply banked tri-oval. Talladega, Daytona, and the recently renovated Atlanta Motor Speedway are a group of tracks referred to as superspeedways, and a unique approach must be utilized for those races (we will discuss further in the Lineup Construction section).

Rain is in the forecast for very early Sunday morning but there should be plenty of time for the track to dry out. There are no lights at Talladega so a prolonged period of rain or surprise afternoon shower could jeopardize NASCAR’s ability to run a full race but for the time being I don’t expect there to be a huge risk.

_{On to Talladega!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 188 laps will be run this week, and 47 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 163 laps should run under the green flag for 73.35possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Since the inception of the Pitstop, there have been close to 30 superspeedway races, including two already this season, so we should be fairly familiar with how to attack this slate. A quick reminder: every car has roughly the same max speed at superspeedways, so they are forced to race in a tight group known as a pack. The slightest miscalculation by a driver can trigger a massive chain reaction crash, known as a “Big One’, that collects a significant number of cars. It is not a matter of whether a Big One occurs at a superspeedway but when. To capitalize on this eventuality, we must back load our lineups to maximize our upside and limit the damage a crash can do.

Even though the driver that led the most laps in two of the last four Talladega races ended up in the perfect lineup, the number of Dominator points they accumulated was not significant, so I would caution against trying to play any Dominators this weekend. Instead, we should focus on drivers starting worse than 10th. In fact, only three of the twenty four perfect lineup drivers over the last four races have started in the top 10. By contrast, nine drivers started between 11-20th, seven started between 21-30th, and 5 started 31st or worse. It is surprising the most concentrated segment is 11-20th and that suggests a slightly riskier approach may be appropriate in tournaments. I expect over time, those numbers will skew deeper into the field, but for now, that is something we should keep an eye on. In tournaments, a lineup with three drivers starting between 5-20 and three drivers starting 21-38 looks optimal. In cash, there is no chance I am risking any driver starting in the top 15. The attrition rate here has been closer to 20%, much lower than Daytona, but still much more than I would be comfortable with. Three drivers starting between 15-25 and three drivers starting between 26-38 should be our goal in cash.

Another thing to note is that the perfect lineups at Talladega tend to look more like traditional tracks than the other Superspeedways. Leaving money on the table is still a viable approach here, but the perfect lineup generally has a salary between $45,000 and $50,000.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 60 Laps

Stage 3: 68 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD)

Larson has no love lost for Talladega, with only one top-10 finish in his last twelve races here. However, Kyle starts at the end of the field (38th) on Sunday because his crew made unapproved adjustments to his car before qualifying,, providing us with a hell of an opportunity. While Larson is a cash game lock but less desirable in tournaments. To make the perfect lineup, he will most likely need a top 12 finish, something he has only accomplished five times in 18 career races here. Also, Kyle is projected to be the highest-owned driver this weekend, and the best way to gain leverage on the field in tournaments is fading the popular drives and waiting for them to get caught up in a Big One.

Erik Jones ($7,000 DK, $6,800 FD)

Jones is not having the best season so far, but he wants to turn this around this weekend. He starts 28th on Sunday but has had a ton of success at Talladega recently, with four top 9 finishes in his last five races here. What’s even more exciting? Erik hasn’t had back to back bad finishes here since 2019 and he was completely pitiful in last Fall’s race, setting him up for big things.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($11,000 DK, $13,000 FD)

Blaney has been the king of Talladega over the last four races with a win, two second-place finishes, 109 laps led, and an average finish of 4th. He starts 21st on Sunday, which is right around our sweet spot, and I expect him to be in the top 10 within the first twenty laps. There is a school of thought that Blaney is due for a bad race, considering how volatile Talladega is, but I would rather take my shot on Blaney than load up on Larson because I expect Ryan to be the lower-owned driver with a higher ceiling.

Joey Logano ($9,800 DK, $11,500 FD)

Now, are we ready to get really funky with our risky pick of the week? Logano is known for qualifying very well at superspeedways and leading laps, but the finishing well part has generally been his problem. Logano is coming off of four straight Talladega races with issues. That can’t continue…right? Joey starts 7th on Sunday, bringing a massive amount of downside to any lineup he is in, but I am expecting his luck to change. The best part is that he is going to go virtually unowned.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,600 DK, $3,800 FD)

Will I ever get bored of writing up Haley at Superspeedways? Probably not. I will never forget the time he burned me at Daytona. Haley starts 27th on Sunday and is coming off of five straight top-20 finishes at Talladega. He is definitely cash-safe with a tournament-winning upside.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Talladega that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Bubba Wallace ($9,200 DK, $11,000 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD)

Ross Chastain ($8,700 DK, $9,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Michael McDowell ($6,700 DK, $6,000 FD)

McDowell is a moderately successful superspeedway driver with a win at Daytona in 2021, but starting on the pole makes him radioactive. There is no chance he will rack up enough dominator points to offset the fact that he has the lowest floor in the field. If he started in the 20s, this would be a much different write-up.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 7-9 (-0.5 u)

Cindric burst onto the scene with a win at Daytona during his rookie season, then struggled a touch at the following superspeedways. He still managed four top-10 finishes in ten career superspeedway starts, which is one of the highest top-10 percentages in the field.

Bowman continues to have some of the worst luck in all of NASCAR but he is a deceptively solid superspeedway racer. He finished second at Daytona earlier this year and is searching for his first win of the season. I am taking a small shot that his luck turns around at one of the most volatile tracks on the circuit.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 4-5 (+6.5 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Geico 500

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