🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Geico 500🏁

Last week, we may have witnessed the final nail in the coffin for the Bristol Dirt race (on Easter Sunday no less) but this Sunday NASCAR visits an old reliable track, Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega County, AL for the Geico 500. The track is a steeply banked, 2.66 mile tri-oval. It is one of two true superspeedway tracks on the NASCAR schedule and we will go over its significance of that in the lineup construction section. The weather looks to be picture perfect on Sunday so we should be able to get this race in without a problem.

On to Talladega!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 188 laps will be run and 47 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 155 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 69.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This has to me close to the 15th time we have gone over what makes superspeedway racing unique so we are going to go through this in bullet points.

Close to 40% of the field runs into some type of issue at Talladega, to gain leverage on the field we will want to backload our lineups.

Only four of the last six perfect lineups had one driver that started in the top 10. All six of those lineups had at least three drivers starting 20th or worse, four of them had four drivers starting 20th or worse but only one of them had more than four.

It is not unusual to leave several thousand dollars on the table when constructing a superspeedway lineup. In fact, the last 12 perfect lineups had a salary between $41,300- $47,900.

Dominators are not guaranteed but they will occur more often at Talladega than Daytona. Searching for dominators is a dangerous game, however, due to the high incidence rate. When choosing a driver that starts in the top 10, avoid the front row and only roster drivers you think can win or lead a significant number of laps.

Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 68 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Corey Lajoie ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD)

Lajoie is not a driver that is normally featured this high on the Pitstop but hey it's a Superspeedway race. Corey starts 33rd on Sunday and is arguably one of the best low priced SS racers in the field. He has posted a positive place differential in each of the last 15 SS races he participated in and has 4 top 10s and 9 top 20s in that time. Lajoie needs to finish 22nd or better to hit 5x value and I actually think that is his floor.

Chris Buescher ($6,900 DK, $7,000 FD)

Buescher is another low priced driver that is starting in the back quarter of the field and has top 10 potential. Chris starts 30th on Sunday and is coming off of two consecutive top 16 finishes at superspeedways, including a 6th place finish at Talladega last fall. Buescher's long term history is just as impressive with seven top 20 finishes in his last 11 SS races, including four top 10s.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,900 DK, $12,500 FD)

Keeping with the theme so far, Elliott will start the race on Sunday in the 28th position. The former Talladega winner is the most expensive driver starting 23rd or worse so I do not expect there to be an issue fitting him into a lineup. Chase is one of the rare drivers that has had success at superspeedways from the front of the field. He has five top 10 finishes in his last 7 SS races including three top 5s. Elliott is probably the safest high dollar option in the field an he has incredible upside too.

Denny Hamlin ($9,100 DK, $13,000 FD)

There is a good chance one driver from the top 10 is making the perfect lineup and my dart throw is Hamlin. Denny is a multiple-time superspeedway winner, including a win at both Daytona and Talladega in 2020. He starts 7th on Sunday and if history is any indication, he will need to dominate or win to make the perfect lineup. I do not recommend searching for dominators at superspeedways but I do believe Hamlin is the most likely winner out of all of the top 10 drivers.

Bargain Basement

Landon Cassill ($4,900 DK, $4,000 FD)

There are enough high priced options this week that I am keeping the basement drivers in the basement. Cassill failed tech three times so he is starting last and will have to serve a pass-through penalty. At a track this big he will not be penalized too harshly but that may still scare off some overcautious players. Cassill is dirt cheap but has legitimate upside with three top 15 finishes in his last five superspeedway races.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Talladega that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ty Dillon ($6,100 DK, $4,500 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($8,900 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Christopher Bell ($8,400 DK, $9,000 FD)

Bell is starting on the pole on Sunday and that is a recipe for disaster. The pole-sitter has not made the perfect lineup at Talladega in at least the last twelve races here. Bell struggles at superspeedways in his own right with only one top 10 in 9 tries.

Pitstop Picks

Would have had some good money if the rain kept up but that was a lot to ask.

5-15 (-8.65u)

I have dug myself quite the hole to start the season so now it is time to hit a winner. I mentioned earlier that any driver we roster that is starting in the top 10 will have to have race-winning upside and this is me putting my money where my mouth is. In the most simple terms, Hamlin has won 5/65 superspeedway races since his rookie season which should put his line at +1300ish to begin with. I was honestly surprised they priced him higher than +1000 so I see this as a solid value.

Dillon has 5 top 10 finishes in his last 11 superspeedway races and two top 10s in his last three races at Talladega. He is an incredible superspeedway racer a great play for this bet as well as on DK/FD.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Geico 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!