Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 🏁

Last week's race was one of the more fun ones of the season. We got to see an epic battle of the brothers over several hundred laps, a couple of major chalk busts, and an off race from Kyle Larson (who knew he as human). NASCAR is looking to follow up that memorable event with the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 from New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH. The track is a 1.058-mile flat oval. The weather may be an issue on Sunday with a 40% chance of rain for most of the day. We lucked out last week with a gloomy forecast, lets see if we can do it again.

On to Loudon!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 301 laps will be run this and 75.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 260 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 117 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Most races at Loudon feature two dominators. 301 laps provide more than enough dominator points to go around and some good opportunities for lead changes. There is typically a major dominator that leads more than 100 laps and a secondary dominator that leads 90+ laps. Starting position provides a major advantage at Loudon, at least one of the dominators started in the front row in each of the last six races. The other dominator usually starts in the top 10 but there was one outlier in the last six when Denny Hamlin started 23rd and led 113 laps in 2019. We should aim to roster at least one driver starting on the front row and at least a second driver starting in the top 10 that we think can lead laps. We can expand our dominator pool in large tournaments and satellites but I think the top 10 is a solid place to start.

Once we get our dominators, we will want to find three more drivers that can finish in the top 16 with positive place differential. While passing may be tough here, good drivers can make big moves so we can utilize the entire field and try to pinpoint drivers who can move around and finish well.

Lastly, bargain basement drivers can be very useful at Loudon. These drivers do not need to be to successful, they just need to pick up enough spots to pay off their salary.

Stage1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 110 laps, Stage 3: 116 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 30

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,100 DK, $13,500 FD)

Truex Jr. is shaping up to be the sexy pick of the week because people are starting to see him round back into championship form. Truex had to start at the rear of the field on Sunday and also overcome a pit road penalty but he was able to run through the field twice on his way to a third place finish. He arguably had the best car in the field but wasn't able to score well enough for people to really notice. For this race, Truex has a coveted front row starting position next to his teammate Kyle Busch and has a much better average finish here and average finish at similar tracks this season. Busch does have three races of 95+ laps led in his last 5 and may pull in lower ownership but I think Truex is poised for a breakout race and will do so at a very nice discount.

Ryan Newman ($7,200 DK, $5,500 FD)

Newman is in a spot that I love this Sunday. He blew up a ton of lineups last week with a totally underwhelming performance at Atlanta. This week he is starting 28th, one spot further up than last week, but gets a $1,100 price increase. Recency bias may scare some people away but I think Newman provides some serious value. He has an average finish of 11.33 in his last three races here and an average pos place diff of 10.5 in that same time. While other players will look to find value elsewhere, I think Ryan can be a cornerstone of the perfect lineup.

Tournament Targets

Kevin Harvick ($10,300 DK, $11,300 FD)

We can get a little creative with our secondary dominator and I am looking all the way back to 12th for mine. Harvick has not been having his typical year but Loudon brings out the best in him with two wins in his last three races here and an average finish of 2.33. It has been a while since Harvick has led a significant number of laps here but he can make up for some of that with place differential during this race. Harvick has not been the fastest at the other two 750 HP flat tracks but he has been consistently good and actually better than some of the big names starting in front of him. I expect Harvick will be in contention by the end of the race and could end up in the perfect lineup with a win or some laps led.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,100 DK, $6,000 FD)

Stenhouse is as boom or bust as ever in Loudon but starting 29th, I'll take my chances. He is $100 less and starts one spot further back than Newman so I believe he will actually be the natural pivot but I give Stenhouse the nod in tournaments. Stenhouse has three top 15 finishes in the last five races here but an average finish of 21.8, indicating that he has just about as many bad finishes as good. He has shown great speed at the other 750 HP flats and top 20 speed overall the season so I think he provides a great ceiling with a much higher floor than we are used to.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500 DK, $8,000 FD)

DiBenedetto is starting 14th this weekend which makes him a great candidate for the risky play of the week. It was announced that Matty-D lost his ride for next year so I am expecting him to come out with a chip on his shoulder this Sunday. His short term history at Loudon is fantastic with straight top 6 finishes with a positive place differential. DiBenedetto is racing for a contract now and I think another solid finish in New Hampshire will go a long way to helping him secure next year's ride.

Bargain Basement

Quin Houff ($4,500 DK, $2,500 FD)

As much as it pains me to say it, Houff may not be the worst play of the slate on Sunday. He is min salary on both sites and he is starting 36th so he can't go negative. Houff will need a top 30 to be any sort of useful to use in tournaments but that might actually be doable this week because there will be some attrition. This does not feel good to recommend but hey sometimes you have to hold your nose get it over with.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Loudon that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Cole Custer ($6,300 DK, $6,200 FD)

Ross Chastain ($7,000 DK, $7,000 FD)

Joey Logano ($9,500 DK, $10,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kurt Busch ($8,500 DK, $9,500 FD)

Kurt Busch is coming off of a dominating performance at Atlanta but I am not interested in him at all for Loudon. Busch is starting 4th on Sunday but only has one top 10 finish in his last four races here. He also has an average finish of 13.33 at similar tracks this year and only has the 15th best average speed at 750 HP flat tracks this year. I wouldn't touch Kurt with a 10-foot pole.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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