Written by @joejets19

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Food City Dirt Race 🏁

Wait a minute, did that say dirt race? Oh yes, it did and we are in for a spectacle on Sunday. For the first time in 50 years Cup cars will be racing on a dirt track in the Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN. The track is a 0.533 mile banked oval made up of clay. To add to the anxiety of the weekend from a DFS point of view, there are weather concerns for Sunday and no one really knows how NASCAR is going to handle it. There is no way to really feel confident about how this race is going to play out so my biggest suggestion is to play a fraction of your normal bank roll and just enjoy the experience.

On to Bristol!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 250 laps will be run this and 62.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 200 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 90 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This is the first dirt race in 50 years, so there is 0 history to look back at here. and the heat races here rained out. The overall uncertainty makes me think this will play out kind of like a superspeedway track, dominator point spread throughout the field, and the lineups with the most drivers standing at the end of the race win all the money. The tricky part is since its a short track, slow cars are going to get lapped early and often so it will not be as easy to catapult into the top 20. Overall I think we should attack this slate with one, possibly two dominators and then four drivers starting 20+ that can stay close to the lead lap for the majority of the race and then make a decent move late to finish in the top 12.

I cannot stress this enough, this will be a fun race to watch but could turn into a complete crapshoot. Enjoy the event but if there was ever a week to dial it back and play one third or one half the volume you usually do, this would be it.

Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 75 laps, Stage 3: 100 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($8,700 DK, $13,000 FD)

Chase is the cheapest I can ever remember him being (there are a ton of drivers this week I can say that about) and had a lightning-fast car in practice, posting the 6th and 7th best single laps times in the respective practices. His car did well over the long run too with top 5 ten and fifteen lap averages in second practice. He has a limited dirt history but starts 26th so he has a decent chance to pay off his salary based on place differential alone.

Ty Dillon ($6,600 DK, $2,500 FD)

Dillon is starting dead last and is a steal at his current price (especially on FD where he is the near minimum). He has some experience on dirt and has an average finish of 10.8 in his last five races at Eldora. Ty's practice times weren't the best and he even took some damage in practice. If he has to fall to the rear of the field it won't matter because he is being scored from there anyway.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($9,100 DK, $11,500 FD)

I don't expect this to be a 1 dominator affair but I think we will need to gobble up some dominator point to take down a tournament. There is a scenario that plays out where one driver leads the early portion of the race until the big guns make their way through the field later on and that is where Hamlin becomes very useful. He arguably has the best car in the top 5, running the best single laps times in both practices of that bunch and even posting top 4, fifteen, and twenty lap averages in second practice. Hamlin is a reasonably priced driver with significant upside if he can lead early and hang on to a top 5.

Kurt Busch ($7,800 DK, $7,000 FD)

I wrote up Kurt in this spot last week and Hamlin shoved him into a wall, we are trying to avoid that this week and roll with Busch again. He is starting 28th and is sporting a hefty discount. He may go overlooked due to his limited dirt history but he showed some great speed, especially during long runs in second practice. Kurt has a fantastic car this weekend (no thanks to his single lap speeds) and I think a top 10 could really differentiate your lineup this slate.

Kyle Larson ($12,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Larson is the hands-down favorite for the race and will be scored from first even though he is starting at the rear of the field due to an engine change. He landed himself in the risky spot of the week because he will need to lead a bunch of laps to pay off his crazy high salary and will not have a ton of time to get up front. Having the heats rained out really hurt his chances of qualifying poorly and being able to garner some place differential points but either way he is a solid tournament option. He would've been chalky mcchalkerton if he was being scored from anywhere else so this is your chance to get an ownership discount. On the plus side, there will be no green flag pitstops for this race so his chances of speeding go way down.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,000 DK, $2,000 FD)

Lajoie is starting 30th again this weekend but was able to post some impressive practice times. Corey has very limited dirt experience but has the safest floor in the price range and when you dip down here all you are looking for is a driver to not blow up your lineups.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Bristol that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($7,700 DK, $8,200 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($10,500 DK, $7,800 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($7,500 DK, $9,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Dillon ($9,700 DK, $10,000 FD)

Austin is one of the few drivers with an extensive dirt history in the field this weekend. He is starting 9th and posted absolutely horrendous practice speeds. He said he really liked his car and just wanted to nurse it around the track but I'm not buying it. He needs a top 5 to pay off his salary without any laps led and I don't see that happening

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the  Food City Dirt Race Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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