LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Food City Dirt Race

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Food City Dirt Race🏁

Happy Easter! Even if you do not celebrate, I hope everyone enjoys the day with their family or friends and gets to relax in the evening for one of the few Sunday night races of the season. The time lot of the race is not the only abnormal thing about this weekend’s race, the NASCAR Cup Series will be running the Bristol Motor Speedway Dirt Track on Sunday. The track is a 0.533 mile, banked, dirt oval, the only one on the schedule. Instead of traditional qualifying, heat races were run on Saturday evening, and a driver’s performance in that race determined their starting position. Everything about this weekend is unique, including the pit procedure. Cars can only receive fuel or tires during the first two-stage breaks and these will not be “live” pit stops. Each team is given 6 minutes to make any adjustments to their cars and a driver will only lose pit position during a pitstop if their team works on the car for longer than the allotted time period.

While the weather was a major concern on Friday and Saturday, the forecast for Sunday is clear.

On to the Bristol Dirt Track!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 250 laps will be run this week, and 62.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 200 laps should run under the green flag for 90 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

There have only been two Cup Series races at the Bristol Dirt Track so far, and the jury is really undecided about whether these cars should be run on dirt in the first place. Either way, that is a next year problem, this season this track is on the schedule so we will need to prepare for it. So far, each race has had three drivers that led 58 or more laps, and five of those six drivers made it into the perfect lineup. While starting closer to the front of the field is helpful, dominators have started as far back as 21st. While I don’t expect the three dominator trend to be sustainable long term we should focus on rostering at least three drivers we think can win the race and hope that they find their way up front.

I know that wasn’t the most specific dominator strategy, but it was an elaborate way to say that the finishing position should be what we focus on most this weekend. We don’t have any practice info to go off of this weekend, and it is a unique track type so nailing dominators is going to be rough. We can, however, identify drivers that will finish well in the hopes of a few of them finding their way up front at some point. Ideally, we will want to roster six drivers that can finish in the top 12. That’s right, we want all six drivers to finish in the top 12. Pricing is soft enough that it shouldn’t be impossible to make a nice-looking lineup, but we need to keep our goal of top 12 finishes in mind.

Stage 1: 75 Laps

Stage 2: 75 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,900 DK, $14,000 FD)

Larson had everyone salivating when he qualified on the pole for the inaugural Bristol Dirt Race, but that did not go as planned; he ran into trouble early in the race and blew up a ton of lineups. Last year went a little better; he won the first stage and finished 4th with 27 laps led. This Sunday he starts on the pole again and is looking to avenge his disappointing 2021 showing. By all accounts, Larson is the best dirt racer in the field and starts in an ideal position to dominate, but he did not seem too happy with his performance in the heats which could push people off of him. I am not going to overthink Larson in cash, though. He is a fantastic driver with a solid experience edge, and he will not make the same mistake twice.

Brad Keselowski ($7,600 DK, $8,000 FD)

This is a stretch for our top 12 rule in tournaments, but that should be relaxed a bit for cash. Keselowski is starting 33rd on Sunday and has a ton of place differential potential. He is coming off of two straight 11th place finishes with positive place differential, so he knows how to pass on this track. Between attrition and his overall skill level, I expect a top-20 finish for Brad this weekend which should be enough to make him cash viable with some tournament upside.

Tournament Targets

Tyler Reddick ($10,700 DK, $13,000 FD)

Reddick is my second most likely dominator of the race. He starts 6th on Sunday and was the major dominator last year from his third place starting position. Like Larson, Reddick loves to run the high line, which could contribute to their shared success. Reddick is not cheap, and it would be very difficult to fit both him and Larson on the same lineup, but I will have exposure to both, and I actually prefer Reddick in tournaments.

Erik Jones ($5,900 DK, $4,200 FD)

Jones is obnoxiously cheap this weekend which is a nice quality to have in the risky pick-of-the-week slot. Starting 18th, Jones does not need to pick up too many spots to hit our top 12 requirement, and due to his price, that would push him way passed five times value. Jones finished 9th in the first dirt race and is looking to repeat those results this weekend.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,200 DK, $4,500 FD)

I always seem to find a reason to roster Dillon, and he always seems to find a way to burn me. At this point, I may have to keep playing him until it actually works out. In any event, Ty starts 32nd on Sunday and has shown some upside here in the past. Dillon picked up 13 spots in the first race here and finished 10th last year, albeit with negative place differential. If Ty could find himself inside the top 25 he would be very close to value, and I believe that is a reasonable expectation.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Bristol that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($8,100 DK, $9,000 FD)

Kevin Harvick ($8,300 DK, $7,200 FD)

Michael McDowell ($6,400 DK, $5,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Dillon ($7,400 DK, $6,800 FD)

Dillon will be starting 2nd on Sunday, and he is way over his head. There are some very fast cars behind him, and even if he runs a clean race, I expect him to fall out of the top 10. Austin has yet to finish inside the top 20 at the Bristol Dirt track, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 1-9 (-7.5 u)

This is another limited betting week so we are back to the H2Hs. I love plus money H2Hs because I believe there is generally inherent value. Kes has been very good here, whereas Buescher has two top 15s but no races with positive place differential. Keselowski should be the favorite despite his starting position.

Another plus money H2H, this time on the defending champion. Briscoe dominated last race but can’t seem to finish in the top 20. Busch has yet to be dominant but finishes well. I like this bet better than I like Busch for DFS purposes so I might get most of my exposure to him here.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 2-2 (1.65 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Food City Dirt Race and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!