🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Food City Dirt Race🏁

Happy Easter everyone! For the first time since 1989, NASCAR is running a race on Easter Sunday but at least it's an evening race so we can still enjoy some time with our families before the chaos ensues. The Food City Dirt Race will take place under the lights of Bristol Motor Speedway, in Bristol TN. This will not be a normal Bristol night race, however, as you may have guessed by the name of the race, it will take place on the dirt configuration of this track. The track is a 0.533 mile, steeply banked, dirt oval. Pit stops will not be live for this race, meaning you will not gain or lose any positions for pitting as long as it does not take longer than the allotted time, and gas/tire changes can only occur at the stage breaks. There could be some rain in the forecast but as long as there is not any lighting, the race should go off without a hitch.

On to Bristol!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 250 laps will be run and 67.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 190 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 85.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

The first thing I want to say about this race is to be cautious about your bankroll. This race has the potential of being a complete clusterf*** and sometimes it's just better to enjoy a holiday with the family rather than sweating unapproved adjustment news.

As you may have noticed, the cheatsheet does not have my model predictions for this race because there are no comparable tracks to speak of and the sample size for this track is literally 1. I did read that last year's race was moderately correlated to high tire wear tracks but if this plays out more like a traditional dirt track we are back to square one.

Attacking this slate will be a little tricky. 250 laps is not a huge amount comparatively but there were enough that all three dominators ended up in the perfect lineup last season. Passing didn't seem impossible during the heat races, especially when good cars were trying to get around inferior ones. Two of the three dominators started in the top 10, which is exactly where I will be looking for my dominators.

Pricing is soft enough that we shouldn't have to worry about dipping into the true bargain-basement this week. There are many place differential drivers at reasonable salaries that can provide us with a robust floor and attractive ceiling. I will be looking to focus on place differential drivers that pick up 10 spots or finish in the top 10, preferably both.

Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 75 laps, Stage 3: 100 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Christopher Bell ($10,800 DK, $13,000 FD)

Bell is my favorite early dominator option on Sunday. He starts 2nd, next to Cole Custer, who I don't anticipate will be the most difficult to get by. Bell was fairly impressive during second practice over the short runs but he fell off significantly after 10 laps. Bell has a solid dirt history, including a win at Eldora in the Truck series and he is well-positioned to lead most of stage one and possibly most of the race as a whole.

Ryan Blaney ($9,400 DK, $9,500 FD)

While writing my recommendation for place differential drivers in the Lineup Construction section, Blaney was the type of driver I was thinking of when I am looking for someone to pick up 10 spots and finish in the top 10. Blaney is starting 25th on Sunday but ran much better than that in practice. He had the 17th and 15th best single lap times, which is nice, but his long run speed is what is most impressive. Blaney is cheap enough to pay off his salary with place differential points alone and I think he will be starting a little too far back to be realistically considered as a dominator.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD)

Larson is the most successful dirt racer in the field and is looking to avenge last year's catastrophic result. Kyle starts 5th on Sunday and I expect him to be challenging for the lead early. I give Larson the advantage over Bell if this race sees a long green flag run because Kyle might have the best long run car in the field. The problem is, I expect cautions to snowball so Larson may need to try to pass Bell using a different pit strategy. Either way, I doubt disaster will strike Larson a second time here and expect it to be a matter of when, not if, Larson gets to the front of the field.

Chris Buescher ($6,600 DK, $5,500 FD)

Buescher is a risky proposition on Sunday, but I think he can go massively under owned and has the potential to really differentiate our lineups. Chris is starting 15th on Sunday, sandwiched right in between two drivers who are bound to get a ton of attention, Jones in 14th and Stenhouse Jr in 16th. Buescher was better than Jones on both the short and long runs in practice but was no match of Stenhouse. At the end of the day, I would rather get leverage on the field with a reliable driver over being overweight with drivers who like to crash on concrete, let alone dirt.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,400 DK, $3,500 FD)

Gilliland should be one of the highest owned drivers, if anyone is paying attention but I am willing to bite this particular bullet this time around. Todd is starting 23rd on Sunday and by all indications he has a top 10 car. Gilliland has significant experience on dirt and is one of the most blatantly mispriced drivers of the slate.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Bristol that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Austin Dillon ($7,400 DK, $6,300 FD)

Martin Truex Jr ($9,600 DK, $11,000 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($8,700 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Cole Custer ($5,900 DK, $4,000 FD)

This year has been crazy so far but I can't find myself rostering Custer on Sunday. He starts on the pole but had blatantly mediocre practice speeds on Friday. Cole also was blah during last year's race here, starting 21st and finishing 24th. If Custer proves us wrong and runs away with it good for him, I am still going to roll out a full fade.

Pitstop Picks

Finally picked up a win, still have some ground to make up.

5-13 (-6.65u)

Elliott ran a nice race last year but started too far back in the field. This year he is starting 9th and has a top 5 car. Looking at the drivers priced around Elliott for a top 5, I think he has the best chance of actually pulling it off.

I love playing Stenhouse Jr in DFS when I can but I also love betting against him because he's his own worst enemy. If this turns out to be a high attrition race, I would expect at least two of these drivers to be affected and in a perfect world, both Chastain and Stenhouse will get knocked out. If this turns into a 1v1 vs Suarez I like Wallace's chances.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Food City Dirt Race cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!