LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Food City 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Food City 500 Cheatsheet

Food City 500🏁

The Darlington Jinx was alive and well last weekend when William Byron led 81.8% of the laps but finished second. We are coming off of two races that were completely dominated by a single driver. Still, I don’t expect that streak to continue as the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee, for the Food City 500. The track is a 0.533 mile, steeply banked, concrete oval, and the venue is the last remaining stadium track on the circuit. Laps are fast, and passing is tough, so I expect tempers to flare Sunday afternoon.

This weekend’s race will be noticeably cooler, with temperatures in the mid-60s. There is only a 10% chance of rain, so I don’t expect there to be any issues with completing the race.

_{On to Bristol!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 500 laps will be run this week, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 440 laps should run under the green flag for 198 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Everything starts with the dominators. In the four next gen races here, there has a been a one dominator, a two dominator, and two three dominator races. A driver starting in the top 3 led more than 100 laps in three of the previous four races. Unfortunately, the other dominators have come from as far back as the 20th century, so there is a large pool to choose from.

2) Don’t take a top 10 driver that can’t lead laps. Taking a driver for finishing position points is a losing strategy at Bristol. Front-loaded lineups are also a bad idea. The only drivers starting in the top 10 that we want to consider are potential dominators.

3) Fast cars will make it up front. Starting in the 30s won’t be an issue for fast cars. They will have no problem muscling their way into the top 15. Slow cars beginning in the 30s will get lapped quickly, so know the difference.

4) The Basement is open this weekend. Like always, if we can avoid this price range, we are probably better off, but dropping into the basement could be a successful strategy on Sunday. Our basement driver has to be able to finish in the top 20, so there should be some upside in our selection.

Stage 1: 125 Laps

Stage 2: 125 Laps

Stage 3: 250 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

William Byron ($9,900 DK, $11,500 FD): Byron starts 26th and was admittedly terrible in practice. His long-term history is very good, however, with two top 9 finishes in his last four races here.

Chase Elliott ($9,600 DK, $12,500 FD): Elliott is slightly pricey, but he has a ton of place differential potential. Starting 20th, Elliott has an average finish here of 4.75 over his last four races here and, theoretically, is within the reasonable dominator starting position

Chris Buescher ($8,300 DK, $10,000 FD): Buescher is starting 24th and is the cheapest in the bunch. He was equally as bad as Byron in practice, but his average finish of 6.5 over his last four races had a massive positive place differential.

Tournament Targets

Christopher Bell ($10,200 DK, $13,000 FD): My model thinks Bell is the most likely to lead the most laps, slightly edging out Larson and then Hamlin. Starting 7th, Christopher is certainly in consideration, and his track history is fantastic. Practice times will be misleading this weekend, so I trust my gut and the model.

Ross Chastain ($8,600 DK, $8,000 FD): Chastain starts way in the back, but I don’t think he will get the attention of the other drivers. Ross starts 35th on Sunday, which would be an automatic plug-and-play, but Logano is a bigger name starting two spots further forward. I prefer Chastain in all formats, but I really like him as a tournament pivot.

Brad Keselowski ($7,800 DK, $10,500 FD): Keselowski offers a significant price savings compared to his teammate Chris Buescher, and he is starting 8 places further forward. While I love Buescher in cash games, I think Keselowski has a similar ceiling and will have a fraction of the ownership, which makes him a solid tournament pivot.

Noah Gragson ($6,900 DK, $6,500 FD): Gragson is not a driver I write good things about often, but he starts 31st on Sunday, and my model thinks a top 20 finish is certainly within reason. We will need cheap upside on Sunday, and Noah may be our best option

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie ($5,400 DK, $2,500 FD)

LaJoie starts 37th on Sunday and is at real risk of being lapped within the first 30 laps. If he can hold on to the lead lap, he should be able to sneak into the top 25 with relative ease. Anything in the top 20 would be downright remarkable.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Bristol that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

Todd Gilliland ($6,200 DK, $5,000 FD)

Ryan Preece ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,500 DK, $4,800 FD)

I’d hate to do this to our boy, but there is no chance in the world this is going to end well for Stenhouse Jr. from his second-place starting position. I don’t expect Ricky to hang on to a top 10, which makes him absolutely useless to us.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 8-8 (6.7 u)

I am taking a big swing at this one, but DK doesn’t normally offer these juicy H2Hs. In the last four races here, they have split the H2H 2-2. Although there is a disparity in starting positions, I think this should be priced as a toss-up, so there is obvious value on Chastain.

Logano has not finished in the top 20 at Bristol in the Next Gen Era. He starts 38th on Sunday, and it doesn’t look promising that he will break that streak. Briscoe is still having growing pains at JGR, and while Bristol has been favorable to him in the past, he has only finished better than 11.5 once in four tries.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 1-2 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Food City 500 Cheatsheet

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