LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Food City 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Food City 500🏁

One of my family’s favorite sayings is “everybody is Irish on St. Patrick’s Day” and as LineStar’s token Irishman I hope everyone enjoys the best holiday of the year. This Sunday I will be looking to turn some luck o’ the Irish into serious winnings when the NASCAR Cup series travels to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN for the Food City 500. The track is a 0.533 mile, steeply banked, concrete oval. This is the first time since 2019 the Spring race at Bristol will be run on the traditional oval. The dirt race was a novelty for a short period but it was more a fun idea than an actually good race.

NASCAR is back on the east coast which means milder temperatures but still picture perfect weather. While I expect the race to be noticeably colder than the last few races, there is still zero chance of precipitation.

_{On to Bristol!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 500 laps will be run this week, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 425 laps should run under the green flag for 191.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

We won’t see more than 500 laps in a race, ever, so if we were going to focus on dominators this would be the race. Three of the last five races featured three drivers that led more than 100 laps, including both races with the new rules package. While passing is hard at short tracks, a combination of fuel and tire strategies can help a driver reach the front of the field if they can capitalize on the relatively high number of cautions. While I think at least one driver starting in the top 10 will be a dominator, the other two can come from pretty much anywhere within the top 20. Leading 100 laps does not guarantee a driver will land in the perfect lineup because they still have to finish well but if we can find the drivers that lead laps we will be on the right path to success.

While our main focus will be on dominators on Sunday, finishing position will be the focus of the rest of our lineups. Notice I said finishing position and not place differential because non-dominators may not move around that much at Bristol. Last Fall, the perfect lineup was a stars and scrubs build but 5 out of 6 drivers finished inside the top 16. As I mentioned previously, passing is difficult at short tracks under this rules package and we will have to take some chances on low priced drivers that are starting further forward than we are comfortable with because they could potentially finish better than they would at bigger tracks.

Stage 1: 125 Laps

Stage 2: 125 Laps

Stage 3: 250 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

While starting on the pole does not guarantee a driver leads more than 100 laps, it sure looks like Blaney brought a rocket ship to Bristol this weekend and I’m not interested in betting against him. Blaney turned in the best single lap, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 laps averages in practice on Saturday. I would expect Ryan to lead at least the entire first stage and I wouldn’t be surprised if he led into the second stage as well. Blaney has never led more than 40 laps here but he is no stranger to the top 5 and I believe Sunday is the day he conquers this short track.

Daniel Suarez ($7.000 DK, $6,000 FD)

Suarez is a cash safe play on the border of tournament viability for me this weekend. While his starting position of 28th is very tempting, I do not trust his ability to make it into the top 10. Suarez has a decent history of picking up spots at Bristol so I don’t worry about his top 20 potential but in tournaments he may lack the ceiling we are looking for.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($10,700 DK, $12,500 FD)

Byron runs in the top 10 very consistently at Bristol but I think he turned a corner last season and is poised to be a major player going forward. William starts 8th on Sunday and my model projects him to be the winner of the race which would just about guarantee his spot in the perfect lineup. Byron posted top five 5, 10 and 15 lap averages on Saturday and will be looking to take home his first victory here on Sunday.

Ross Chastain ($8,500 DK, $8,500 FD)

Calling Chastain cheap at $8,500 would have gotten laughed at two season ago but considering he is starting dead last, there is almost zero chance another driver provides as much value. Ross ran the 4th best single lap speed and top five 5, 10, 20, 25 and 30 lap averages in practice on Saturday. His track history isn’t the best considering his two career top 15 finishes at Bristol but Chastain only needs a finish of 18th to hit value and I think this weekend is his time to shine.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

Gilliland is far from a safe play on DK but I think he brings massive upside to the table as long as he makes it into the top 15. While Gililland has an average finish of 17th in his two races here, those came in races he started 30th. This Sunday, Todd starts 24th which gives him a head start on his quest for a top 15 but also bring a big negative number into play if he runs into a problem.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Bristol that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Bubba Wallace ($7,700 DK, $7,800 FD)

Chris Buescher ($9,800 DK, $11,000 FD)

Austin Dillon ($6,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Josh Berry ($6,500 DK, $5,800 FD)

Josh Berry somehow managed to qualify second and that is way too far forward. He ran middle of the pack single lap times during practice on Saturday and I don’t expect him to do anything but lose spots during the race on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 5-3 (5.4 u)

Plus money H2Hs are one of my favorite NASCAR bets and we got a juicy one this Sunday. Byron and Larson have the best average finish at Bristol over the last three races but I think this is the race where Byron finally takes the lead. Larson’s long run speed was concerning in practice while Byron showed speed over the long and short runs which will make the biggest difference this weekend.

Blaney has the car to beat this Sunday but the sportsbooks know it so he provides almost zero value. There is a chance Blaney dominates on Sunday but doesn’t collect the win and that is what I am banking on with this bet. Logano is a crafty veteran that always seems to be hanging around the top 10, if Blaney loses the clean air there’s a chance Logano pull off a better finish even if he doesn’t dominate.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 2-2 (+3.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Food City 500 Cheatsheet

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