Written by @joejets19

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Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 🏁

Welcome to the 100th issue of the Pitstop. We are now in our 4th season and I want to thank everyone for checking it out weekly and I am really enjoying the increased participation in chat this season. While most of the country will be focusing on March Madness, we get to direct our attention a little further southeast. The Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 will take place Sunday afternoon at Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, GA. The track is a banked 1.54 mile quad-oval that is known for its excessive tire wear. The race will be the longest of the year so far in terms of laps (325) and miles (500.5) so there will be plenty of dominator points available but oddly enough each of the last three races only had 5 cautions so we will really need to focus on good cars and not pray for attrition. With that being said, good luck on Sunday and I hope everyone makes out better than my bracket (thanks Ohio State).

On to Atlanta!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 325laps will be run this and 81.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 300 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 135 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

If we thought we had a nice amount of dominator points available last week, we get a slight bump on Sunday. As is the case most weeks, I like to start our lineup construction with the dominator pool. Each of the last five races at Atlanta had one major dominator that led more than 100 laps. Every one of those major dominators started in the top 10 but none of them started on the front row, so we have an array of options. Three of those five races had at least one driver lead between 50-65 laps and function as a secondary dominator, but not every secondary dominator made the perfect lineup. The secondary dominators can also come from all over the field so they will be harder than normal to nail down.

Since we should only devote one or two roster spots to dominators, we will need four to five place differential drivers that we think can finish in the top 15. There have been a few bargain basement drivers over the years that make it into the perfect lineup without cracking the top 15 but they still needed to pick up a decent chunk of spots. The overall approach I believe should be: one driver starting in the top 10 that we think can be the major dominator, a second driver that we think can lead 50 laps and finish in the top 10, three drivers that can finish in the top 15 with positive place differential, a maximum of one driver that can pick up at least 7 spots that places as close to 15th as possible.

Stage 1: 105 laps, Stage 2: 105 laps, Stage 3: 115 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

I faded Harvick last week because I didn't believe in his so called dominance at Phoenix but I buy into how good he has been at Atlanta. Harvick has two wins, an average finish of 3.75 and 669 combined laps led in the last four races here. Admittedly, he and his team have gotten off to a slow start to the season but he did turn in the 8th best green flag average this year at Homestead (another high tire wear track). He is also rounding into form a bit with a solid showing last Sunday at Phoenix. Harvick is the highest priced driver on the slate and starts 7th. His starting position is not as worrisome at this track as it would be at others and his overall track strategy is unmatched here so I think this is finally the week Harvick turns his season around.

Austin Cindric ($8,600 DK, $6,200 FD)

I am a bit of a sucker for a good driver starting last, especially in cash. Cindric is an accomplished Xfinity driver that will be behind the wheel of the #33 on Sunday. Anyone who looks up who used to drive a #33 car (what I did at first), will find a bunch of junk. Cindric's car, however, will actually be a Team Penske product and even if it isn't exactly Keselowski's twin, it will be better than the 15 cars starting in front of him. On equipment alone, I believe Cindric has top 25 upside and with his skill a top 20 is achievable. He will probably need a top 15 finish to land in the perfect lineup so that should be taken into consideration for GPP lineups but I think he is easily in play for cash.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($9,600 DK, $13,500 FD)

Taking a second stab at a dominator is going to be tough with so many good drivers starting in the top 10. Starting on the front row has not proven to give a significant advantage here but I still like Truex Jr's chances of leading a decent amount of laps. He starts second and ran the fourth best green flag average this year at Homestead and the best green flag average last race at Atlanta. Although he did not win the race last year, Truex did win both stages and finished third, which followed as 2nd place finish in 2019. He will be starting beside his teammate Denny Hamlin but has arguably had the better car so far this year and I think Truex is the more likely of the two to dominate on Sunday.

Kurt Busch ($8,300 DK, $9,000 FD)

I am looking at Kurt to be a sneaky (hopefully) GPP pivot off of Cindric. Busch starts 11th on Sunday and has a fantastic history at Atlanta with five straight top 8 finishes with more than 50 laps led in two of those races. He had the fastest green flag average at Homestead this year and the 8th fastest green flag average at Atlanta last year. Kurt burned people the last two weeks with sub-par races which should further depress his ownership. A 5th place finish for Busch would outscore Cindric if he finished 19th or worse and if Kurt could rack up a few laps lead that would only widen the margin.

Erik Jones ($7,000 DK, $6,500 FD)

One of these days I am going to write up Jones and he's going to have a good race. Jones starts 22nd on Sunday and has a decent history at Atlanta with three top 14 finishes in four Cup races here. Jones is cheap this week and has proven he can run well in his new equipment (a 10th place finish this year at Las Vegas). He will have his work cut out for him trying to make it into the top 15 but if he does that put him right at 5x and on the verge of the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

Lajoie is on the verge of starting too far forward (30th) but has a very enticing price tag, his second lowest this season. He has had a terrible season so far but was very impressive at similar tracks last year so I am electing to focus his long term success and trying to find some upside in an otherwise ugly bargain basement.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Cole Custer ($7,600 DK, $7,000 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($8,400 DK, $7,500 FD)

Kyle Larson ($10,400 DK, $12,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Joey Logano ($9,400 DK, $11,300 FD)

Logano starts third on Sunday but has not shown a ton of speeds so far this season. He was able to lead a bunch of laps last week but never really had a dominant car and had the 8th and 11th best green flag averages at Homestead and Las Vegas respectively. Logano's long term history at Atlanta isn't terrible but over the last five races only has three top 10 finishes with no top 5 and a combined total of 33 laps led. There are a ton of potential dominators to choose from on Sunday, I just don't think Logano is one of them.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Folds of Honor QuikTrip Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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