🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 🏁

The west coast swing is over and NASCAR is returning to the new-look Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, GA for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The freshly reconfigured track is a 1.54 mile quad-oval featuring the steepest banking on any intermediate track and narrowed turns. The goal was to make this track race more like Talladega and Daytona and judging by practice, they may have accomplished that. I would not pay too close attention to historical Atlanta finishes since this track is a completely different animal and think focusing on similar tracks and lineup construction is the way to go.

On to Atlanta!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 325 laps will be run and 81.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 270 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 121.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

In a season full of unknowns, NASCAR has thrown us another curveball. If this race really plays out as everyone wants, a "Big One" is imminent. The main difference between traditional superspeedways and Atlanta is that there will be 325 laps run on Sunday, not 160-200 . This not only increases the number of dominator points available but there are 100+ more opportunities for this race to devolve into complete chaos. I mentioned earlier that track history is mostly useless and I spent some time looking into performances at similar tracks but even that can be taken with a grain of salt because of the new car. I think the easiest path to success is solid lineup construction. I am hesitant to roll out the Daytona "only start drivers starting 26th or worse" approach and instead will look to back load our lineups with a stab or two at dominators. We have been moderately successful with our current template of spending up for place differential drivers and playing a large dominator pool and I am looking to amp that up this week. I imagine there will be a lot of pack racing to start and then the first big wreck will turn this into a single file event for a while. In this scenario, whoever is leading the line will rack up a ton of laps led, but probably not fastest laps. I wouldn't be surprised if there are two to three minor dominators in this race but only one makes the perfect lineup because the other two run into trouble. I suggest limiting my exposure top 1 driver starting in the top 10 and as many as 2 drivers starting between 10-20. If a "Big One" does occur bargain basement drivers will be valuable, but a shorter tracks means they may be trapped a couple laps down before the fun begins. Overall I think our best option will be 1 driver starting in the top 10, 1 driver starting in the top 20 and 4 drivers starting 20+ in cash. For tournaments you can take a second stab at a dominator but that could potentially open us up to massive downside.

Stage 1: 105 laps, Stage 2: 105 laps, Stage 3: 115 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,200 DK, $10,000 FD)

Truex had a run between 2018-2020 where he was the king of the intermediate tracks. He did not have a win in 2021 on a 1.5-mile track but lucky for us, we don't need him to win on Sunday. Truex starts 26th in Atlanta and is the top cash option for the slate. He has shown the ability to finish well at similar tracks and superspeedways giving him a unique advantage for whatever this track my throw at him. Truex showed nice speed during practice with the 9th fastest single lap time and 10th best 10 lap average and I think he will be well equipped to either race his way through the field or hang back and let the madness happen in front of him.

Michael McDowell ($6,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

Former Daytona 500 winner, Michael McDowell, starts 29th on Sunday and provides a nice floor and ceiling combination for any cash lineup. McDowell has been fairly successful at similar tracks recently with an average finish of 22.3 at similar tracks last season. He was also impressive during the practice session, turning in the 6th best single lap time but he slacked a bit over the long run. McDowell provides top 20 upside with a solid floor which is exactly what we should be looking for in this price range.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($9,800 DK, $11,500 FD)

Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr's teammate, is starting 4th on Sunday and had a better car than the three drivers starting in front of him during practice. I believe Busch is the most likely dominator early and I am really confident in the Joe Gibbs cars as a whole this race. While he tends to run into bad luck superspeedways he can be completely dominant on intermediate tracks. Busch is the top tournament option in the field and I think he can break the slate if he finds a way to stay up front.

William Byron ($9,400 DK, $10,500 FD)

Byron is one of the best leverage spots in the field. For those competitors who are strongly weighing track history in their research, they will blow straight past William. Starting 12th, Byron will need a top 5 finish to pay off his salary which would look like a pipe dream judging by his Atlanta history but is actually fairly attainable if this race plays out like the other steep intermediates. Of course, there is always a chance this turns into a superspeedway type race but don't worry, Byron has three top 4 finishes in his last six superspeedway races as well.

Bargain Basement

Josh Bilicki ($5,000 DK, $2,500 FD)

Bilicki is starting 36th on Sunday and can't go negative, so that's a plus. He will be a liability if this turns into a standard intermediate track but he does have some considerable upside if the race turns into a wreck fest. Overall I would approach Josh as a super low-risk driver that won't hurt you in cash but can make all the difference you need in a tournament.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($10,100 DK, $12,000 FD)

Christopher Bell ($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD)

Chase Elliott ($10,300 DK, $12,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Briscoe ($8,200 DK, $8,300 FD)

Briscoe surprised everyone last week during his win at Phoenix. It has been incredibly difficult for drivers to roll out dominant cars in consecutive weeks and the added possibility that this becomes a race of attrition, I generally want to avoid the pole sitter.

Pitstop Picks

Another 0-2 pushes us into the red for the first time this season

4-6 (-0.65u)

Sometimes I think DK reads my mind. I love the speed the JGR cars showed in practice and think this type of hybrid track will fit well with their drivers. Hendricks has a solid stable and has been very successful early in the season so I was hoping for slightly better odds. Overall I wouldn't be surprised if this was 3-2 either way so I am taking the plus money.

I wanted to go with Truex Jr. in this group but Reddick won me over. Tyler had the best practice times over the long run in the group and he also has a solid superspeedway resume. While Reddick will be considered a risky DFS play, you can get some exposure to him on the sportsbook.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!