LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - FireKeepers Casino 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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FireKeepers Casino 400🏁

We saw one of the few surprise winners of the year last weekend at Richmond, with Buescher throwing down a dominant performance. With only four races in the regular season, everything will be cranked up a notch as teams make a last-minute playoff push. This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, MI, for the FireKeepers Casino 400. The track is a high-speed, moderately banked, 2-mile, D-shaped oval. While the racing will not be like a superspeedway, by all accounts this is a massive track that drivers can run wide open the entire way around with very little tire fall off. Fords have had a stranglehold at this track over the last decade, and they are set up well for that to continue this weekend.

It wouldn’t be a summer NASCAR race if the weather weren’t at least somewhat an issue. There is around a 50% chance of rain on Sunday, so there is no telling at this point if the race will be run on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday because the precipitation seems to hang out for the next couple of days.

_{On to Michigan!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 200 laps will be run this week, and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 170 laps should run under the green flag for 76.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Horsepower has been and always will be king in Michigan. While the track is so big it will be very hard to lap slow cars here, only top-tier teams have a chance of hanging out in the top 10. While this is a D-shaped oval, it is significantly bigger so there will be few laps run this weekend. Dominators are still important, but over the last six races, there has only been one driver that led more than 100 laps. In contrast, there have been two races where no driver led more than 70 laps. Starting in the front row has not proven to provide a significant advantage here, even with the new aero package, but starting in the top 5 does increase a driver’s chances of landing in the perfect lineup. I think the lead will bounce around a bit this weekend, so we will want to roster one or two drivers that start in the top 10 but we will want to focus on another parameter while building lineups.

Drivers can make big moves at Michigan and lead laps from anywhere in the field. Therefore, let's focus on rostering drivers with top 10 potential and hope we gather up some laps led in the process. Four of the last six perfect lineups had five drivers finish in the top 10. Also, only 3 of the 36 drivers in those six perfect lineups finished outside the top 20. Finishing well in paramount at Michigan and place differential drivers will be the key to success this weekend.

When you hear the words horsepower and top 10 finish, the bargain basement is not the first thing that comes to mind, and right rightfully so. These drivers have had so much success in recent races, but as a general rule, I would try to avoid the basement in tournaments. Sneaking a scrub into a cash lineup is never a bad idea if it can free up enough salary to roster an extra star.

Stage 1: 45 Laps

Stage 2: 75 Laps

Stage 3: 80 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($10,300 DK, $12,500 FD)

Harvick is on an unreal tear at Michigan with four wins in the last five races here, even in the years that he has been underperforming by his standards. While everyone thinks Phoenix is Harvick’s best track, it is hard to argue against this two-mile oval. Kevin has his work cut out for him this weekend from his 25th-place starting position. While starting that far back would limit his dominator potential at most tracks, there will be plenty of opportunity for Harvick to get to the front of the field here. His place differential potential makes Harvick a cash-game lock and his dominator potential will also make him tournament viable this weekend.

Ryan Blaney ($9,700 DK, $10,500 FD)

The only driver to win a race not named Harvick in the last 5 races here is Ryan Blaney. He starts 9th this weekend and posted top 10 single lap, 5 lap, and 10 lap averages in practice on Saturday. Did I mention Ryan also drives a Ford? Blaney is slightly cheaper than some of the other big names, but he has just as much upside as anyone in the field, and I think he is a great stack with Harvick for cash games this weekend.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $11,500 FD)

While Byron does not drive a Ford and is not known for his success at Michigan, he has completely dominated correlated tracks this season and was very fast in practice on Saturday. William had the best 10 lap average in practice, with the third best single lap speed and second best 5 lap average. Byron starts 7th on Sunday and only has one finish worse than 18th in his Cup career here. He is not the most consistent driver at this track, but he does have race winning potential, and that is exactly what we are looking for in tournaments.

AJ Allmendinger ($6,800 DK, $4,800 FD)

Allmendinger is one of those drivers that doesn’t jump off the page at you but my models have him performing well this weekend. AJ starts 24th this weekend, but he practice much better than that on Saturday, turning in the 12th best single lap speed, 9th best 5 lap average and 11th best 10 lap average. He has not raced here since 2018, but his long term history suggests he has top 15 potential with top 10 upside, which is exactly what we would need for him to land in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie ($5,500 DK, $3,200 FD)

The bargain basement is ROUGH this weekend, especially considering we are targeting a top 20 finish. LaJoie starts in the rear this weekend but will be scored from 31st so he will have a huge hole to climb out of. This is familiar position for LaJoie to be in. However, he has several low-20 finishes while starting in the 30s at Michigan. He was quick during practice on Saturday, and I expect that to translate to the race.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Michigan that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($10,800 DK, $14,000 FD)

Erik Jones ($7,300 DK, $6,500 FD)

Ryan Preece ($6,600 DK, $5,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Christopher Bell ($9,800 DK, $11,000 FD)

Fading the pole is a brutal stance to take, but track position is not super important at Michigan. Bell has never finished in the top 10 here and would have to lead many laps to make the perfect lineup. Stage lengths are not Christopher’s friend this weekend, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost the lead fairly early then faded into oblivion.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 10-28 (-10.25 u)

I hate betting outrights but the books went to bed early this weekend. At the time of this writing, DK doesn’t have any lines posted and MGM only has outrights listed. I have mentioned Fords at Michigan a number of times throughout the Pitstop, and I am going to keep the trend going by placing a 1u wager on either Logano or Harvick to win. +1200 seems a bit steep for a driver starting 25th, but the pickings are slim. Logano is a more consistent driver than his teammate Blaney, who is being offered at +900 odds. Overall I like think the Ford trend will continue, and I think Logano and Harvick are the most logical optons.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-3 (3.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

No poll this week, the sportsbooks are slacking

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the FireKeepers Casino 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!