Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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FireKeepers Casino 400 🏁

The playoff race is really heating up with only 2 races left in the regular season. The possibility of another surprise winner is looming over some bubble driver's heads so they will be looking to capitalize on a more "predictable" race this weekend as NASCAR heads to Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, MI for the FireKeepers Casino 400. The track is a 2 mile, moderately banked D-shaped oval with wide corners and a long straightaway. Weather is not expected to be an issue on Sunday and neither are tires (famous last words) so we should get ideal racing conditions for this race.

On to Michigan!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run this and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 170 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 76.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

We are back to the standard schedule this week, with no practice or qualifying so hopefully not too much late news. Michigan is just a stretched out oval so it is an easier to predict track type with fewer laps than a typical 1.5 mile track but still enough to be interested in dominators. We typically see one driver that leads more than 90 laps and a second driver that leads between 40-60 laps. There have been races where one driver dusts the field and there is no secondary dominator and there have also been races where there are a few drivers that lead around 50 laps. In tournaments I would play around with lineup constructions but gravitate to one dominator lineups. Cash games are definitely going to be one dominator builds. At Michigan, we will want to focus on the front of the field to find our dominator(s).

Traditionally Michigan rewards drivers with better equipment, which means the fast cars find there way up front and the slower cars fall back pretty quickly. That also means that drivers can make big moves and we will want to find drivers that can finish in the top 15. Lower priced drivers have made it into the perfect lineup in the past, but usually ones in average to above average equipment,

Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 80 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 20

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK, $14,500 FD)

Larson is hands down the most likely dominator in the field and he has already shown this season he can just check out on the field. He is starting on the pole on Sunday and has posted the best total speed at the other low tire wear ovals this season (Kansas, Las Vegas, Charlotte). Did I mention he won at Kansas and Charlotte? There isn't that much more to say, in cash Larson is a lock, I still love him in tournaments regardless of his ownership but in satellites, you can make the argument that a fade is the right call because any slip up would kill a lineup.

Ryan Preece ($7,500 DK, $4,500 FD)

Preece is another cash game lock on FD but is also a great play on DK. He is a bit pricier than I generally feel comfortable with on DK but he has a tremendous ceiling considering his starting position of 32nd. Preece has an average finish of 18.25 here with a positive place differential of at least 9 spots in three of four Cup races here. He has also been very good this season at similar tracks with an average finish of 19.2. Preece needs a top 20 to score 35 DK pts which would be enough to make him cash viable and anything better than that would make him a great tournament option as well.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,400 DK, $11,500 FD)

I am a sucker for a good narrative and Denny has the best one going into Sunday. Winless this season, Hamlin is relying on his once massive point cushion to help him qualify for the playoffs. With his first win in sight last Sunday he got spun with a lap to go and is still in search for a guaranteed playoff spot. Knowing the chaos of Daytona, this is Denny's best chance to capture a win and he will pull out all of the stops from his 10th place starting position. I do not expect him to be the major dominator but Hamlin has more than one path to the perfect lineup. A victory or a top 5 with 10-20 laps led should be enough to pay off his salary and are both legitimate possibilities on Sunday.

Christopher Bell ($8,100 DK, $9,200 FD)

Bell is starting 28th on Sunday and is exactly the type of driver I mentioned in the lineup construction section. He is a good driver in a fast car, the exact combination Michigan likes to reward. He finished 17th and 13th here last season but actually had an average running position of 13.5 between the two races, so he ran slightly better than he finished. He has had some promising finishes this season, including a 7th place finish in Las Vegas, and has posted the 12th best total speed at low tire wear ovals. Bell will need a top 15 to hit value so he is not the safest driver but he does have significant tournament upside.

Tyler Reddick ($7,400 DK, $8,500 FD)

Reddick starts 14th on Sunday and finds himself as my risky play of the week. He was not great here last season with a negative place differential in both races and an average finish of 21st but his finishes this year of 7th at Kansas and 9th at Charlotte give me hope that he can translate those successes to Michigan on Sunday. Reddick is also an interesting pivot off of my cash pick, Preece. They are similarly priced and are a great example of place differential vs finishing position. Preece will need to pick up 12 spots to score 35 DK pts whereas Reddick only needs to pick up 3. Preece is definitely the safer option but if Reddick can find his way into the top 10 he will put up an amazing score at much lower ownership than similarly priced options.

Bargain Basement

Anthony Alfredo ($5,800 DK, $3,500 FD)

I am not the biggest fan of this entire price range but Alfredo does have some upside. He is starting 35th and has an average finish at similar tracks of 27.1. My model projects a 30th place finish for him on Sunday but it also has a ceiling of 25th which is pretty much what he will need to land in the perfect lineup. Overall I wouldn't roster anyone under $6,000 if I could help it but Alfredo is probably the best option in the range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Michigan that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD)

Cole Custer ($7,000 DK, $5,300 FD)

Joey Logano ($9,600 DK, $10,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

William Byron ($10,200 DK, $11,000 FD)

Byron is starting 18th on Sunday and will be on a lot of people's radar the same way that Logano (who is starting 20th) is on mine. Judging by speed stats alone, Byron has been lightning quick this season, and he has a slew of top 10 finishes on his resume. The issue is he runs well when he starts well and is pretty mediocre when he starts outside of the top 10. In fact, he only has one top 10 finish this season when he started outside the top 10. Byron is awfully expensive this weekend and I think there are much better options for a significant discount.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the FireKeepers 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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