LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - FireKeepers Casino 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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FireKeeper Casino 400🏁

Welcome back, everyone. I am going to be completely honest, I kinda checked out last weekend and only paid attention to Nashville’s race tangentially. From what I can gather, it was a long green flag run, 100 laps of complete slop, then another long green flag run to finish the race. Luckily for us, this Sunday the Cup Series is traveling to a much calmer track, Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, MI, for the FireKeepers Casino. The track is a massive 2 mile, banked, D-shaped oval where drivers can run the entire track wide open, rarely needing to brake. While this is not a drafting track like Daytona or Talladega, it does not race like a traditional cookie-cutter 1.5-mile track either. Dominators are hard to come by at Michigan, and fast cars find their way to the front.

There is a constant 15-25% chance of rain throughout the afternoon on Sunday. It seems like this track always experiences some weather issues, regardless of the forecast, so I would anticipate some shenanigans. There are no lights, however, which is why I suspect we have an early green flag time.

_{On to Michigan!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 200 laps will be run this week, and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 160 laps should run under the green flag for 72 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Finishing position is king. Fast cars qualify well, fast cars finish well, and only about 6 drivers run into trouble per race. We need to find at least 5 drivers that can finish in the top 10, if they all start in the top 20, that could be ok. Michigan rewards fast cars.

2) Dominators are a lost cause. As much as it pains me, only one driver has led more than 25% of laps in a race in the Next Gen Era. While drivers starting in the top 5 generally get a chance to lead some laps, whether they make the perfect lineup depends on where they finish. Anyone starting in the top 20 could realistically be a dominator, and their laps led are spread out, so we really need to just find drivers that can finish well.

3) Fords like Michigan. Big, wide-open tracks are where Fords excel, and Detroit is the city that Ford built. Toyota upset the trend last year, but don’t be surprised when a blue oval is in victory lane.

3) The Bargain Basement is open. This was a track that would never allow a basement driver in the perfect lineup, but in the Next Gen Era, that has changed. Punt at your own risk; however, they need to have top 15 potential.

Stage 1: 45 Laps

Stage 2: 75 Laps

Stage 3: 80 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brad Keselowski ($7,500 DK, $8,000 FD): Keselowski cannot figure out qualifying trim and starts 27th on Sunday. This is a common theme for him; however, with an average finish of 8th at Michigan, with an average positive place differential of 12 spots, he has shown the ability to maneuver through the field. Kes did not run the best practice and didn’t turn in a 20-lap average, but his teammate Buescher is lightning quick, so I know there is speed in the vehicle. Brad just needs to find it.

Ryan Blaney ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD): Last week’s winner is part of my Ford play. Blaney starts 13th, which gives him some place differential potential and is coming off of top 9 finishes in 2/3 races here. Ryan has finished well at the correlated tracks as well over the last season and a half, so I expect him to be in contention for all 200 laps.

Daniel Suarez ($6,600 DK, $6,200 FD): Suarez is starting 35th, which makes him a cash game lock. Daniel is coming off consecutive top 8 finishes here, so I expect him to be on everyone’s radar. For that reason, I would prefer Suarez as a cash play because I question his tournament upside.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,000 DK, $13,500 FD): Hamlin has been the most consistent driver of the Next Gen Era at Michigan. He is coming off two 3rd-place finishes and a 9th-place finish here in his last three races, and he starts 3rd on Sunday. I fully expect Hamlin to grab the lead at some point and finish in the top 5.

Christopher Bell ($10,200 DK, $11,500 FD): Bell is the perfect tournament buy-low candidate. His track history here is abysmal, with an average finish of 24.67 and average negative place differential of -22.67. Trouble loves to find Bell at Michigan, which is why he is not a cash game player, despite his 25th-place starting position. Christopher’s car was fantastic in practice, so as long as he stays out of trouble, he should be a lock for a top 10.

Ryan Preece ($7,000 DK, $6,000 FD): Preece is driving the third RFK Ford, and I already mentioned how much I like his teammates. Ryan starts 23rd but has a top 15 car. While Michigan has not been his best track, I think Preece has sneaky top 10 upside on Sunday.

Ty Gibbs ($6,900 DK, $7,000 FD): Gibbs is super cheap because he is having a disaster of a season, but Michigan is one of his best tracks. There is a ton of risk with Ty starting 8th, but he has one of the best long-run cars, so if he can grab some laps led and hang on to a top 10, there is considerable upside here.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,900 DK, $3,500 FD)

Haley is cheap and starting 31st. To Justin’s credit, he has two top 20 finishes in his last three races here, but he was utterly unimpressive in practice. Despite all that, my model projects him to finish 14th, so I guess I’ll “trust the process.”

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Michigan that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Tyler Reddick ($9,800 DK, $13,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,000 DK, $4,200 FD)

Austin Cindric ($7,200 DK, $6,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Busch ($8,300 DK, $8,500 FD)

I will continue to fade Busch until he proves he can get out of his own way. Kyle starts 2nd and has had problems in 2/3 Michigan races. Any finish outside the top 5 would be catastrophic, and I cannot take that chance.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 14-12 (11.6 u)

This is as spicy of an H2H matchup as you could find. There’s a chance that Reddick starts in the rear for a car switch or unapproved adjustments, which would throw this off a bit, but here we are for now. These two drivers are polar opposites at Michigan; when one does well, the other implodes. Larson leads the series 2-1, but my model loves Reddick this weekend, and I can’t pass up a +125 H2H.

We are back on Underdog this weekend with a juicy pick. Briscoe is becoming the qualifying king, but the race-day court jester. There are so many fast cars behind him that I don’t expect Chase to hold on to a top 10. Berry has a top finish of 22 at Michigan and an average correlated finish of 17. My model projects a 28th place finish, which is harsh, but I don’t think he cracks the top 15.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 2-2 (0.38 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

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