LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - FireKeepers Casino 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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FireKeepers Casino 400🏁

NASCAR returned with a wild race last weekend in Richmond. Austin Dillon (apparent Pitstop reader) did his best Michael Jordan impression and took my full fade personally then intentionally wrecked Logano and Hamlin on the last lap en route to victory lane. While that move set the NASCAR world on fire, Dillon’s playoff eligibility was eventually stripped and he enters with weekend in a must-win situation as the CUP Series travels to Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn Michigan for the FireKeepers Casino 400. The track is a 2 mile, moderately banked, D-shaped oval that embodies the all gas no brake racing mentality. While the track is nowhere near a superspeedway, it is longer and wider than most venues and the racing surface is still very smooth which enables the fastest cars to truly separate themselves from the pack.

Mother Nature is going to be a problem this Sunday. She shortened practice and canceled qualifying on Saturday and is looking to move the race to Monday. As of right now it looks like they are going to be able to start the race on Sunday but may have to finish the race on Monday which is the absolute worse case scenario but let’s see how this plays out.

_{On to Michigan!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 200 laps will be run this week, and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 160 laps should run under the green flag for 72 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Michigan has always been known as the track that showcased raw speed and that has continued to hold since the inception of the Next Gen car. While there haven’t been any runaway performances over the last two races here, the fastest cars found their way to the front of the field and that is kinda the point of this whole thing. I expect there to be two to three drivers that lead between 35-50 laps and their finishing position will determine their perfect lineup potential. This is an atypical race because cars were able to practice but not able to qualify so we can’t depend on qualifying results to help figure out which cars will perform well on Sunday. While that hurts us in our never-ending search for a dominator, it opens up much more place differential potential than we are accustomed to at Michigan. The best approach I can suggest is rostering five drivers that we think can finish in the top 10 and hopefully, some of them can lead laps. Starting in the top 5 has not guaranteed a dominator slot and I don’t expect that to be any different on Sunday, fast cars will find their way up front no matter where they start.

Now, if I remember correctly, the first place I rolled out a bargain basement fade was Michigan due to the speed requirement. Thankfully, the Next Gen car has fixed that to an extent and a one-basement build should be a feasible approach. Ideally, our basement driver should have top 20 potential but a balanced lineup with a stud or two and a basement driver should be a solid build.

Stage 1: 45 Laps

Stage 2: 75 Laps

Stage 3: 80 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD)

Truex Jr blew up his engine and my lineups in Richmond but I don’t expect a repeat performance in Michigan. Truex starts 24th on Sunday despite his second-best single-lap speed and top five and ten-lap averages in practice. Not only was Martin good in practice, but he has an average finish of 4th over the last two races here and an average finish of 9.9 at correlated tracks over the last two seasons. There is a ton of place differential potential with Truex and he is bound to be a very popular pick but that is not stopping me from using him as a building block for my cash teams.

Erik Jones ($6,700 DK, $5,200 FD)

Jones is good at the weirdest tracks and Michigan seems to be one of those. He has an average finish of 9th over the last two races here and an average positive place differential of 8.5. He starts 28th on Sunday but posted the 12th best single lap speed in practice and the 14th-best five-lap average. A top 10 finish may be a bit of a stretch for Jones this weekend so I may avoid him in tournaments but there is serious upside for cash lineups.

Tournament Targets

Ross Chastain ($8,100 DK, $7,800 FD)

Chastain is the current odd man out of the playoffs and he needs to make big moves over the next three weeks to keep his season alive. Lucky for Chastain, he ran the fastest single lap speed in practice on Saturday and starts 7th on Sunday. Judging by practice times, Chastain arguably has the best car of the top 7 and could make a play to lead the early laps. My model LOVES the Toyotas this weekend and he will need to pass a number of them to make it to the front but Ross has proven over the years that he is willing to do whatever it takes to win when he has the chance and I think he will be that desperate this weekend.

Chris Buescher ($8,600 DK, $10,000 FD)

Buescher is another bubble driver looking to lock up a playoff spot on Sunday. RFK Racing has already announced that they are throwing everything they have behind Chris this weekend and if his 9th best single-lap practice speed is any indication of what that means, he could be a contender. Buescher starts 18th on Sunday but showed top-10 speed in practice. Michigan has been kind to Chris over the last two years with two top 16 finishes including a win in 2023. Buescher has an uphill climb this weekend but he is in a great spot to help his playoff chances.

Bargain Basement

AJ Allmendinger ($5,600 DK, $4,200 FD)

Allmendinger is dirt cheap and starting 35th on Sunday. He was able to turn in the 10th best single lap speed in practice on Saturday but didn’t post a 5 or 10 lap average. He isn’t racing for a playoff spot but still has plenty of incentive to turn in a good performance. There are a handful of viable pivots this weekend in the basement for tournament plays if you are worried about Dinger’s ownership but he makes a fantastic cash play.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Michigan that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Joey Logano ($8,800 DK, $10,500 FD)

Ty Gibbs ($8,400 DK, $8,500 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Tyler Reddick ($9,600 DK, $12,500 FD)

Despite their terrible history here, my model loves almost every Toyota here…except Reddick. That’s not entirely true, but it ranks him 6th which is a tough look from the driver starting 2nd. For whatever reason Tyler is snakebitten here (along with Christopher Bell) and I am not looking to mess with all of the potential downside. A fast track that rewards zipping around the top would seem to be everything Reddick would live for but I can’t trust him.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 18-24 (3.9 u)

Slim pickings in the H2H market so far. I like the revenge angle for Logano and Hamlin this weekend, Joey needs to make up the $50,000 he was fined. Michigan is not Logano’s best track but he does have a better average finish here (9 vs 23.5). Elliott had better practice times and average finish at correlated tracks but I prefer Logano’s consistency, especially at plus money.

My model projects Toyota to sweep the top 5 and my simulations only produced four unique winners, all of which were Toyotas. Michigan has always been a Ford safe haven but the Toyotas were always a close second, I think this may be the year they flip the script.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 10-13 (+11.9 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

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