🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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FireKeepers Casino 400🏁

Chaos struck again at the Indy Road Course last weekend when the field got completely jumbled in the last few laps. This Sunday, we may be in store for a more subdued race when NASCAR travels to Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, MI for the FireKeepers Casino 400. The track is a 2 mile, moderately banked, D-shaped oval that is known to highlight the raw speed a driver can get out of his car. It will be interesting to see how teams can get the most out of these next gen machines because everyone should have the same top speed, theoretically, even without a restrictor plate. Keep an eye out for weather updates because thunderstorms are in the forecast for the afternoon.

On to Michigan!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run, and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 170 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 76.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Michigan was always known as a track that rewards raw speed. Due to the next-gen car design, 32 cars were within 1 second of the fastest lap in practice on Saturday. I don't expect there to be such a pronounced difference in speeds in this race but we have seen time and time again this season that clean air is king. A one dominator race is entirely possible on Sunday. In fact, 7 of the last 11 races here featured only one driver that led more than 90 laps but that driver started anywhere between 1-20th. While there is an advantage to starting further forward in the field, the true rocket ships always find their way up front.

A combination of finishing position and place differential should be used to fill out the rest of our lineup. Ideally we are aiming for 5 drivers that finish in the top 10 and one driver that can finish with positive place differential. It is not unusual for the perfect lineup to feature 2 or even 3 drivers that start in the top 10 and finish in the top 10 with some laps led and fastest laps to boost their scores. I wouldn't call it an entirely front loaded approach but feel free to take on a little extra risk to try and secure 5 top 10 drivers.

Stage 1: 45 laps, Stage 2: 75 laps, Stage 3: 80 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,300 DK, $11,000 FD)

Not the typical cash game pick but I love the starting position (24th) Blaney will need to defend his Michigan title on Sunday. He has been fairly consistent here over the years with five top 10 finishes over the last seven races and even when he finished poorly he ran pretty well considering his average running position on 11th over the last five races here. Blaney ran the 8th best single lap time and 16th best 5 lap average on Sunday which indicates he has some speed in the car but needs some help on the long run. Overall, Blaney is cheap enough to only need a top 10 finish to reach value which is a nice place to start any cash team.

Alex Bowman ($8,200 DK, $8,800 FD)

Bowman has been incredibly cold over the last six races with four incidents, but I refuse to overlook him on Sunday. Alex starts 30th on Sunday but posted the 9th best single lap time as well as 8th best 5 and 10 lap averages on Saturday. Bowman's Michigan history isn't the best, with a positive place differential in only one of his last 6 races here and two top 10s, he does not normally qualify this poorly, so I believe he has significant upside this weekend.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD)

Kyle Busch starts 3rd on Sunday but is probably the most reliable of the three Toyotas at the head on the field. I don't play the manufacturer card often, but the Toyotas showed up ready to go on Saturday when they posted the top 5 single lap speeds in practice with Busch leading the charge. They were also able to secure the top four 5 lap averages, proving they are strong on longer runs also. While Wallace and Bell are starting on the front row, I think Busch will be the man to beat on Sunday after posting seven consecutive top 7 finishes here. Kyle has never been a major dominator here, but I would be shocked if he didn't find himself leading the field for a good portion of this race.

Daniel Suarez ($8,600 DK, $9,000 FD)

This is more of a gut play than anything, but all eyes are going to be on Harvick starting 16th, so I think a great option is tournaments will be Suarez starting 15th. Daniel does not have the track history that Harvick does but he did run a similar single lap speed and a faster 5 and 10 lap average on Saturday. Suarez posted two top 5 finishes here while driving for SHR; when he is in good equipment, he can be very dangerous at Michigan, and this year he is one of the best cars of his career.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD)

I hate punting at Michigan, but sometimes it is a necessary evil, so why not go with a driver that can't lose any spots? While he has never run a Cup race at Michigan, Gilliland has an average finish of 23.75 at similar tracks this season, and if he can make it anywhere near there on Sunday, he would make the perfect lineup easily.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Michigan that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Chris Buescher ($7,100 DK, $6,200 FD)

Kevin Harvick ($8,400 DK, $8,500 FD)

Martin Truex Jr ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Cindric ($7,700 DK, $7,200 FD)

Cindric starts 5th on Sunday and is pretty much destined to lose spots. He lost spots in two of three Xfin races and posted the 16th best single lap time on Saturday. He has an average finish of 22.5 and an average place differential of -15.75 which indicates that he is no stranger to qualifying well and falling back. For the amount of risk you would be taking on to play Cindry you might as well go all in and roster Wallace.

Pitstop Picks

13-33 (-15.1 u)

I love the Toyota's this weekend, and I think they will be a force to be reckoned with. I really think two Joe Gibbs cars will end up 1-2, perhaps Kyle Busch and Hamlin but either way, this is a great way to get exposure to all of them.

Suarez is the book's favorite in a H2H vs Harvick but he has longer odds in this group which right away screams value. Both Wallace and Jones have been error prone in their own rights and if this turns out to be a Suarez/Harvick H2H I think we are on the smart money side .

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the FireKeepers 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!