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Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders 🏁

NASCAR kicked off the playoffs with one of the best races of the season. Hamlin was able to hold off a late surging Larson for his first win of the season and a guaranteed spot in the next round. Both drivers will be starting in the row this Saturday night at Richmond Raceway in Richmond, VA for the Federated Auto Parts 400. Richmond is a 0.75-mile D-shaped flat track. Weather does not seem to be an issue at all this weekend so it should be smooth sailing for all 400 laps on Saturday. Like I mentioned a few weeks ago, the NASCAR contests were going to shrink once NFL season started and DK cut its Engineer by over 40%. There is still money to be made but prize pools will continue to shrink as the season winds down.

Before we move on, I want to mention that this race will take place on the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Time flies, and I can still remember being a grammar school kid in New York on that day. So much has been said over the years that I can't really add too much, just take a minute while you are enjoying the race to appreciate your loved ones, maybe give them an extra hug, because you never know when everything can change.

On to Richmond!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run this and 10 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 350 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 157.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Darlington's marathon of a race lived up to its reputation last Sunday and we get even more laps this weekend (400) but the track is much shorter so it won't take as long to run. Dominators are the name of the game again on Saturday because there a ton of laps led/fast laps points available. Races at Richmond generally see two drivers that lead more than 89 lap three dominator races are a possibility. The odd thing about three dominator races is only two of the three dominators end up in the perfect lineup, usually due to a poor finish. Dominators generally start in the top 10, only two drivers in the last 9 races have started worse than 10th (11th and 15th) and led more than 89 laps. The starting position that has dominated the most is the polesitter, but that was before metric qualifying.

Once we locate our dominators, we want to avoid the top 15 like the plague. Only two of the last nine perfect lineups featured three drivers starting in the top 10 but five lineups had three drivers that started in the top 15. That might seem a bit murky so the way I am going to approach it is two drivers starting in the top 15 for my 2 dominator lineups and three drivers starting in the top 15 for my three dominator lineups. Drivers can make big moves here, so don't be afraid to load up with a handful of drivers starting in the 18-30 range, they may not dominate but they can still be in the perfect lineup.

The bargain-basement will also be open this weekend but only to the select few drivers that can pick up 10 spots or finish in the top 20.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 155 laps, Stage 3: 165 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 30

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,200 DK, $14,000 FD)

Truex is an absolute stud at Richmond with 107 or more laps led in 7 of the last nine races here (one of the races he failed to dominate he started outside the top 10). He also has five straight top 5 finishes here, so we can feel fairly confident that he will finish well even if he doesn't win. Truex is only the 5th most expensive driver on DK this weekend despite being the most likely dominator, which makes him a considerable value. Truex's combination of value and upside is the reason he lands in the top cash spot this weekend.

Ryan Newman ($6,000 DK, $5,500 FD)

Newman is another underpriced driver this weekend and is starting 24th. Richmond is a boom or bust track for Newman with four top 9 finishes in his last eight here. Luckily for us, Newman does not need to finish in the top 9 to pay off his salary, a top 18 will suffice.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,400 DK, $13,500 FD)

Hamlin is starting on the front row on Saturday night next to Larson but I actually prefer Hamlin as our main tournament dominator. He has not won here since 2016 but has been the fastest driver this season at short flat tracks and was able to lead 207 laps this spring from a second place starting spot. Joe Gibbs racing runs very well at Richmond and I expect Hamlin, Truex, Kyle Busch and Bell to be running upfront the entire night. I already mentioned Truex as a cash dominator but I think Hamlin offers the same upside for GPPs. I fear Kyle is starting too far back to be anything more than a big field/satellite option. Busch is more expensive than all of his other teammates making him an unrealistic place differential candidate because there is a good chance the major dominators will have a cheaper price tag. I know I got sidetracked there a bit so I'll cut to the point, I like JGR a ton this weekend and I would rank them: Truex Jr. for cash, Hamlin for tournaments, and Kyle Busch for large fields/satellites.

Matt DiBenedetto $8,100 DK, $7,800 FD)

DiBenedetto is starting 28th on Saturday night but has his work cut out for him due to his hefty price tag. If he were $600 cheaper he would be cash game viable but we will have to stick with him in tournaments for now. Matt has three straight top 17 finishes at Richmond, and posted the 13th best green flag average in the Spring race on his way to a 9th place finish. His lack of races with a positive place differential does worry me slightly but I think he was more of a victim of qualifying over his head rather than struggling at the track. Saturday will be DiBenedetto's chance to prove his string of good finishes is not a fluke and he can battle his way into the top 15.

Aric Almirola ($7,500 DK, $9,200 FD)

This pick is certifiably insane but that is why I started risky pick of the week. Hear me out on this, Almirola is starting 9th and is so cheap he literally only has to pick up one spot to hit value on Saturday. In a big tournament, I could see a lineup with a dominator from the top 10, Kyle Busch starting 15th as your second dominator, and then Almirola as a low owned value option. Almirola has had a terrible season except for a few races this year: 11th at Phoenix, 6th here this Spring, and 1st at Loudon, all of which are shorter flat tracks. I am not saying Almirola is a smash play by any means, I am just suggesting he can be a high-risk leverage spot to differentiate lineups in big tournaments.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

I completely hate this range this weekend and dislike just about everyone in this range. I already mentioned Newman as a cash play and I think the only other driver with GPP worthy potential is Lajoie. He is starting 25th and doesn't exactly have a stellar record here but he has been racing his tail off the last few weeks and I think that has the possibility to continue on Saturday. We only need him to sneak into the top 20 to be tournament option which is no small task but he will be in better equipment that 8 of the 12 cars behind him so he is not in a huge risk of getting caught from behind.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Richmond that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($6,900 DK, $6,300 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,700 DK, $7,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($9,300 DK, $11,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Elliott ($11,200 DK, $10,500 FD)

There are a ton of drivers that I dislike this weekend and Elliott is high on that list. He is starting 13th on Saturday night and only has four top 10s in eleven career cup races here. Elliott has never led more than 34 laps in any Richmond race and that simply will not cut it on DK due to his price. He is more reasonable on FD but I would still avoid him over there. Elliott has not been good at the shorter flat tracks this season and I do not expect that to change on Saturday.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!