🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Federated Auto Parts 400🏁

Short tracks are some of the most fun races on the NASCAR schedule, and with the playoffs around the corner, I can not wait for this Sunday. The NASCAR Cup Series travels to Richmond Raceway in Richmond, VA, for the Federated Auto Parts 400. The track is a 0.75-mile D-shaped, relatively flat oval. Ironically, Richmond is one of the most predictable tracks on the schedule, and there is a relatively low attrition rate, so we may want to lean on our models a little more than usual. This will be the first race of the season I am publishing my machine learning model prediction, so I am excited to see if that will give us a little extra edge.

On to Richmond!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 370 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 166.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Short tracks races run many laps, and we have 400 to play with on Sunday. We have been doing this for a while, so you should know that dominators will be the key to success for this slate. Ten of the last eleven races here have had at least two drivers that led more than 80 laps (two had three), and only one race had one major dominator. Except for two unlucky souls that led more than 80 laps at Richmond, every driver ended up in the perfect lineup. Dominators generally start in the top 10, and nine of the last eleven races have had a driver that started in the top 3 lead more than 80 laps. Oddly enough, there have been more than one instance where two drivers starting in the top 3 ended up in the perfect lineup, but that is an incredibly risky way to build a lineup. Overall I would start all of my lineups with one driver starting in the top 3 and another driver starting in the top 10 that I think can lead laps. This strategy can work for one to three dominator races because the race with one dominator still had three top 10 drivers in the perfect lineup. The three dominator races can usually only fit two of the three dominators in the perfect lineup.

Once we find our dominators, place differential drivers are who we will need to hone in on. Our criteria for these drivers can finish in the top 15 or pick up at least 10 spots. Since more dominator points are available, we don't need to worry as much about the top 10 finishers as we have to worry about finding salary to fit the dominators in. A number of cheap drivers only picked up a handful of spots and ended up on the perfect lineup when they finished in the top 15 with positive place differential.

Stage 1: 70 laps, Stage 2: 160 laps, Stage 3: 170 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,600 DK, $14,000 FD)

This is Truex's best remaining chance to make the playoffs with a win, so that he will be going all-in on Sunday. Martin is starting 6th on Sunday and has the best track history in the field with a positive place differential and 80 or more laps led in five of the last six races, not to mention three wins. Truex looked dialed in on Saturday, running the 5th best single lap time in practice and top six 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 lap averages. Martin was actually the best car in the top 9 over the long run in practice and I think he will be able to capitalize on that speed in this type of race.

Aric Almirola ($6,800 DK, $7,200 FD)

It's a common trope that if the track is short and flat, then Almirola is a contender, and while that is not exactly true from his 32nd place starting position, he is a cash game lock. Aric ran the 4th best single-lap speed in practice on Saturday and had the best 15, 20, 25, and 30-lap average. He is incredibly cheap and was able to build a rocket ship for this weekend, all he needs is to sneak into the top 20 to pay off his salary, but I think he has top 15 upside.

Tournament Targets

Ross Chastain ($10,100 DK, $12,000 FD)

I previously mentioned that one of the top 3 would most likely be in the perfect lineup, and that player pool consists of Larson, Chastain and Jones. While Chastain does not have the best track history of the bunch, he had the best single lap, 5 lap and 10 lap average in practice on Saturday. He also has the best average finish at similar tracks this season. Chastain's fall off after 10 laps is incredibly alarming, but I am hoping clean air will clean that up for him. While I don't expect any of these drivers to be the major dominator I think one of them will hit the 80 laps led threshold. For those of you play MME, my allocation will most likely be Chastain 55%, Larson 35% and Jones 10%.

Austin Cindric ($7,500 DK, $6,500 FD)

Richmond is known as a relatively predictable race, so my risky pick of the week will be entirely model driven. Cindric is starting 33rd on Sunday, and while I think he will struggle to pay off his salary, both my main model and the machine learning model are calling me an idiot. Austin ran a respectable race in the Spring but nothing special, but he does have an average finish at similar tracks of 16th. Cindric also ran the top 7 lap averages on Saturday, so he should have some speed in his car. I put these models together for a reason and it will be very interesting to see how this picks plays out on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Harrison Burton ($5,800 DK, $5,500 FD)

The bargain basement is not desirable in Richmond, but it is a necessary evil every now and then. We will need a top 15 out of Burton, which is a tall task considering his 30th place starting position, but it is within the range of outcomes, so we might as well take a stab at him on Sunday.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Richmond that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($11,400 DK, $13,000 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($8,800 DK, $8,800 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,400 DK, $5,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Cole Custer ($5,700 DK, $5,000 FD)

Sort of punting the fade this week, but this one is painfully obvious. Custer is starting 7th on Sunday and has never finished better than 22nd at Richmond. He wasn't particularly good in practice, failing to crack the top 12 in single lap or any lap average. We may need a good performance out of a bargain basement driver this weekend but this isn't him.

Pitstop Picks

13-35 (-17.1 u)

I barely missed out on my Toyota bet last week, and I feel like running it back a different way on Sunday. JGR is fantastic at Richmond and has been able to land all four drivers in the top 10 in each of the last three races. DK runs these types of specials every week, and this is the best odds I have seen.

Bowman has a great track history but was terrible in practice. He has the track position advantage to start the race, and he is plus money. Logano is very good here in his own right, but there is a chance he gets stuck in traffic for most of the race and cannot make it upfront.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Federated Auto Parts 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!