LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Enjoy Illinois 300

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Enjoy Illinois 300🏁

Mother Nature loves to ruin a good party, and boy, did she destroy last weekend. Not only did she disrupt Larson’s attempt at the double, the Coca-Cola 600 was barely rendered the Coca-Cola 350. Everything about Charlotte was frustrating, but we have to have a short memory. This Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to the World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway in Madison, IL, for the Enjoy Illinois 300. The track is a flat, 1.25-mile asphalt oval with a similar shape to Darlington. Turns 1 and 2 are similar to the turns in New Hampshire, and turns 3 and 4 are similar to Phoenix, so naturally, Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Darlington are among the similar tracks we should be referencing in our research.

Weather will not be a factor at all this weekend. Temperatures are mild for June, and there is less than a 10% chance of precipitation. While it won’t make up for last week’s debacle, it will be nice to not have to worry about the elements for a weekend.

_{On to Gateway!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 240 laps will be run this week, and 60 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 185 laps should run under the green flag for 83.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

There are many things that make Gateway unique, and one of them is the structure of this race. Generally speaking, the shorter the track, the more laps are run. For some reason, NASCAR decided that 240 laps are sufficient this weekend despite the track's diminutive 1.25-mile length. As a result, fewer fantasy points are available than a standard race. We usually expect short track races to feature more than one dominator, but in reality there was only one driver that led more than 100 laps in the two next-gen races here. Cautions were a bigger story than dominators; fewer than 200 green flag laps were run in the previous two races here. The one major dominator here did start on the pole but I don’t expect that to be the case this weekend. Starting position is very important at short tracks but the equally short first stage dramatically limits the viability of an early surprise dominator.

While we cannot discount the effect so many cautions had on our place differential drivers, we generally have a good idea that we need 6 drivers with top-15 potential. Drivers have had success moving through the field at Gateway, and we need to identify drivers who can finish in the top 10. Big moves are possible here, so a front-loaded lineup may not be the solution to our top-10 requirement.

I know what you are thinking. In one sentence, I said we need to prioritize the top 15 drivers, and then in the very following sentence, I mentioned the top 10. Well, our bargain basement driver has a little leeway. While I would love them to also have top-10 potential, it is usually the lower-priced drivers that push the range to the top 15.

Stage 1: 45 Laps

Stage 2: 95 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Joey Logano ($9,300 DK, $9,000 FD)

The All-Star race was the unofficial coming-out party for Fords in the Next Gen Era. The entire fleet made a short track statement, with none other than Joey Logano leading every single lap. The task is slightly more challenging this Sunday from his starting position of 12th. While Logano has never dominated here, he does have a win and a 3rd place finish. In practice on Saturday, Logano ran the fastest single-lap speed as well as the best five and ten-lap averages. I don’t expect a dominating performance out of Joey this weekend, but a top 5 finish is certainly not out of the question.

Daniel Suarez ($6,900 DK, $6,200 FD)

Suarez is having a forgettable season, but a starting position of 31st is hard to pass up for the former Xfinity Champion. Suarez has an average finish of 15 at Gateway over the last two races and an average finish of 21.55 at similar races since 2023. Daniel’s limited ceiling prevents him from being an effective tournament option, but it is very hard to pass up his price/floor combination in cash.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,800 DK, $10,500 FD)

Continuing the Ford trend for this race, Blaney is starting third on Sunday, and I believe he has the best chance to be the major dominator. While McDowell and Cindric qualified on the front row, starting position alone does not guarantee a significant number of laps led. Blaney ran the second fastest single-lap speed in practice on Saturday, along with top-three five, ten, and fifteen-lap averages. Ryan has burned me more than once this season and is due to make something good happen for us.

Ross Chastain ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

Chastain is not risky in the traditional sense, but from the outside looking in, his upside is questionable. Ross starts 16th on Sunday, which, ironically, is his average finish at similar tracks. His average Gateway finish is not much better (15). His practice speeds were impressive, but my model gives him about a 25% chance of finishing in the top 10. While that isn’t a ringing endorsement, his decreased salary and floor/ceiling projection on 18/2 make him a very intriguing tournament option on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,700 DK, $3,500 FD)

The basement is very stressful this weekend because everyone qualified close to the rear, and we need a driver with top-15 potential. With those parameters, the pickings are slim, but I think Haley is interesting from his 21st-place starting position. Justin has an average finish of 15 here and multiple top-10 finishes at similar tracks over the past two seasons. Haley may be the riskiest basement driver this weekend, but he is also the one with the highest upside.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Gateway that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($8,500 DK, $8,200 FD)

Josh Berry ($7,200 DK, $7,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Michael McDowell ($6,500 DK, $6,500 FD)

McDowell is starting on the pole on Sunday. Like the rest of America, I love a good underdog story, but I don’t expect that to be the case on Sunday. Passing is not easy at short tracks, but stage breakdowns are not McDowell’s friends. Michael may be able to lead the entire first stage, but I expect him to lose the lead at the first stage break and never look back.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 10-16 (-3.25 u)

Hamlin has dominated short tracks this season and had a second-place finish at Gateway last season, but his record isn’t perfect. Bell has a better average finish at similar tracks over the last two seasons. Bell has also arguably brought the faster car to the track this weekend. I think Hamlin has a better chance of winning the race, but if the Fords are able to stay up front, Bell is the better play for Top Toyota.

Getting Larson in a plus money H2H feels almost like a gift. I may be buying into the narrative a little bit but Kyle seems fired up now that his double attempt was thwarted. Truex’s car was better during practice but Larson turned in a better qualifying performance. Track position is going to be king on Sunday and Larson starts with a 6 place advantage.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 6-8 (+6.9 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Enjoy Illinois 300 Cheatsheet

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