LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Enjoy Illinois 300

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Enjoy Illinois 300🏁

I hope everyone enjoyed their Memorial Day weekend, predictably the race was rained out on Sunday but it still made for an interesting Monday afternoon/evening. This weekend should go much smoother as the NASCAR Cup Series travels to World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway in Madison, IL for the Enjoy Illinois 300. The track is a 1.25 mile, flat, egg shaped oval visually similar to Darlington. This will be the second Cup series run here so there is not a ton of track history so we will be looking at practice times as well as similar tracks run so far this year.

We could not ask for better weather this weekend with temperatures in the 90s and zero chance of rain.

_{On to Gateway!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 240 laps will be run this week, and 60 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 200 laps should run under the green flag for 90 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Last year’s race was a bit of a mess so trying to looking for trends for this race is going to be a FUN. This is a short-ish track but the race is only 240 laps long which is a weird combination. Throw in the fact that there were 12 lead changes and the “major” dominator only led 26% of laps last June, this race has the potential to be all over the place. Finishing position should be our priority on Sunday and we should focus on drivers that we think can finish in the top 10. If we nail five drivers that finish in the top 10, including the winner, we should be able to collect enough laps led to catapult us up the leaderboard. This is a high risk strategy because if a dominator emerges from the front row/top 5 there is a chance we will miss out on a significant portion of points but the stage lengths/fuel window indicate that this should be more of a strategy race so we may not see any singular driver really run away from the field.

While, ideally, we want to target five drivers that can finish in the top 10 and pick up some laps led, that leaves one open spot in the lineup. While the bargain basement is open on Sunday, it comes with a caveat. Our “cheap” driver will need to sneak into the top 15 which is an exceedingly tall order these days. Any driver with that type of upside will come with significant downside so I would look into cheaper options for cash but if you want a chance to take down a huge tournament, this is the type of driver we will need to target.

Stage 1: 45 Laps

Stage 2: 95 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Alex Bowman ($8,600 DK, $8,500 FD)

Top 10 potential with positive place differential? Alex Bowman is your man! Bowman starts 18th on Sunday but his long run speed was very encouraging in practice. He ran top five 10, 15 and 20 lap averages on Saturday. He only finished 13th here last year but was able to pick up 12 spots in the process, so he know what it takes to pass at Gateway. While Alex did not race at Darlington this season, he has a 9th place finish at Phoenix and an 8th at Richmond which is a very good sign for his upside this weekend.

Brad Keselowski ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

Starting one spot behind Bowman (19th) is Brad Keselowski. Kes excels at strategy races because he is always willing to put himself on a unique pit schedule to capitalize on any potential cautions. Besides the smoke and mirrors, it also seems like Brad has finally found some speed in his car. He finished 10th in Richmond and 4th in Darlington with positive place differential in both races this year. Keselowski also ran the 10th best single lap time and 7th best five lap average in practice on Saturday.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($11,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

Byron was in contention all race on Monday but wasn’t able to hold on to the lead seemingly ever. This Sunday he has a less advantageous starting position, 7th, but I can’t get over his recent form. Byron won at Phoenix and Darlington this year, two of the three tracks most similar to Gateway. He showed nice speed during practice but nothing to write home about, this is purely a recent form tournament play. William is one of the most expensive drivers on the slate so we will need a win or at least 50 laps led to make him a viable play so I would pay up for Larson in cash but I love Byron as a tournament pivot, especially on FD.

Aric Almirola ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD)

Let’s go through our Almirola checklist: Is the track flat? Yes ✔ Is the track short? Kinda? (Sorry I couldn’t find a good emoji for that one) The moral of the story is we have 1.5 out of 2 green flags for Almirola on Sunday so he finds himself as our risky pick of the week. Aric starts 24th which leaves him with a ton of ground to make up considering we need him to finish in the top 10. Almirola has been uncharacteristically sloppy at short flats this year with a finish of 33rd at Phoenix and a 13th at Richmond. His top 6 ten, fifteen and twenty lap averages during practice on Saturday give me some indication that he is ready to turn his season around at Gateway and I think he makes a perfection tournament option.

Bargain Basement

Michael McDowell ($5,700 DK, $5,800 FD)

There might be three drivers priced $6500 and under that have a realistic chance at a top 15 with positive place differential and McDowell is one of them. He starts 21st on Sunday and is coming off of a 13th and a 6th place finish at Phoenix and Richmond this year. He was unbelievably fast in practice on Saturday which is unsustainable but still encouraging considering his starting position of 21st. I love McDowell’s price this weekend and wouldn’t be surprised if he snuck into the top 15.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Gateway that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($11,300 DK, $14,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,500 DK, $7,500 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Cindric ($6,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

We will be on the lookout for low priced drivers with top 15 potential but Cindric is not it. He starts 10th on Sunday and I can’t foresee a scenario where he doesn’t lose a ton of spots. Cindric’s practice times were terrible and his best finish at a similar track this year was 19th. There are much better values to be found.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 7-17 (-6.45 u)

You should know by now that plus money H2Hs are kinda my thing. Chastain is approaching overrated territory and Harvick has been remarkably consistent this season. It will take a top 10 to win this bet and I think Harvick has the best chance of pulling that off.

Almirola has a giant hole to climb out of in this group but I think he is up to the task. Wallace should fall out of the top 20 and Preece isn’t a serious option from a betting perspective. The Toyota’s are fast so Gibbs will be a formidable hurdle but I still think there is value for Almirola at +300.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 2-3 (0.65 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Enjoy Illinois 300 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!Noco