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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Enjoy Illinois 300

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Enjoy Illinois 300🏁

Last weekend, Chase Briscoe was able to defend his Southern 500 title and punch his ticket to the second round of the playoffs. While some drivers had disastrous nights at Darlington, no one is yet in a must-win situation as the NASCAR Cup Series travels to World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway in Madison, IL, for the Enjoy Illinois 300. The track is a 1.25 mile, flat asphalt oval that reminds me of a mini Darlington of sorts. Turns 1 and 2 are at the narrower end of the oval and are modeled after Loudon, while turns 3 and 4 are wider and modeled after Phoenix. To no one’s surprise, the correlated tracks I am using for this race are Darlington, Phoenix, Loudon, and Richmond.

For the first time in recent memory, there is literally a 0% chance of rain in the forecast for the entirety of Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler than we have seen over the past month, but there will not be a cloud in the sky, allegedly.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 240 laps will be run this week, and 60 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 190 laps should run under the green flag for 85.5 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) We have to find the lap leaders. One driver in the last three races here has led more than 100 laps, but the driver who led the most laps in each one of those races made the perfect lineup. It's hard to call a driver who led 66/240 laps a dominator, but that might be what it takes on Sunday. Either way, drivers starting in the top 4 are where we need to focus our attention because at least one dominator will come from that range.

2) Stars and scrubs(lite) has been a successful strategy. Passing can be hard here, like in Darlington, and a front-loaded lineup could work. If that is how this race plays out, we may need two high-priced drivers starting up front, a moderately priced driver, and three lower-priced drivers. For this strategy to work, all six drivers have to start fairly well and finish well, which is always a high-risk/high-reward proposition.

3) The basement is definitely open. A double dip cannot be ruled out. This is a weird race where I could see a 0, 1, and 2 basement driver build being optimal. Considering how important dominator points are and the fact that everyone starting in the top 10 is expensive, I am leaning toward a 1-2 basement build.

Stage 1: 45 Laps

Stage 2: 95 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($9,500 DK, $12,500 FD): Larson is starting 2nd on Sunday, next to Denny Hamlin, who completely squandered his pole position at Darlington. Larson was faster in practice over the short run, and if he can sneak by Hamlin early, I think the clean air will make up for any long run speed he is lacking.

Joey Logano ($9,000 DK, $12,000 FD): Logano has been a quiet assassin at Gateway with an average finish of 3rd over the last three races, including a win. He starts 13th, which gives him plenty of place differential potential. Due to his relatively low salary, a top 5 finish would be enough for Logano to make the perfect lineup.

Justin Haley ($6,300 DK, $4,800 FD): Haley starts 31st on Sunday and has limited upside, so I may keep him out of my tournament builds. What Justin does bring to the table is an average positive place differential of 11 and an average finish of 13th. Haley was not impressive in practice, but if he can sneak into the top 20, he would more than exceed value.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD): Blaney has been on quite a ride the past few weeks, and I am planning on riding the hot hand. Ryan is not the most consistent driver here, but he managed to lead 83 laps here two years ago, and he starts 5th on Sunday, which places him directly in our dominator pool. Blaney needs to dominate and possibly win to make the perfect lineup this weekend, but I think he is the most likely dominator out of the drivers starting behind the front row.

Kyle Busch ($8,000 DK, $8,000 FD): Kyle Busch has not been himself the last few years, but something about Gateway helps him channel his vintage self. Busch starts 22nd and was terrible in practice, but he has 240 laps to find speed. He has a win, a 2nd, and a 35th place finish in his three races here and picked up as many as 10 spots in those races. Busch is looking to turn back the clock on Sunday and possibly play spoiler to some drivers’ playoff dreams.

Austin Cindric ($8,500 DK, $10,000 FD): Cindric has had some success at shorter flat tracks and even won here last season. Austin starts 9th on Sunday, so he has only a small amount of place differential potential. Instead, we should view Cindric as a start well/end well proposition, looking to capitalize on his track position.

Carson Hocevar ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD): Hocevar may be one of my favorite drivers to fade, especially on Underdog, so this is a strange position for him. For some reason, my model loves Carson on Sunday, and why have a model if you aren’t going to trust it? Hocevar starts 27th this weekend, and he is relatively cheap, so a top 15 finish should be enough to make the perfect lineup. Carson does have a top finish of 8th with a 12-spot positive place differential, so he does have realistic upside.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,500 DK, $3,500 FD)

Gilliland was hilariously fast in practice, posting the 5th best single lap speed and the 9th best 10 lap average. He starts 30th on Sunday, so he does have a ton of place differential potential. Combine that with his two consecutive top 16 finishes here, and we have a ton of basement potential.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Gateway that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ty Gibbs ($6,700 DK, $6,800 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($7,700 DK, $8,200 FD)

Michael McDowell ($5,900 DK, $5,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Briscoe ($10,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

Briscoe got a significant price bump due to his multiple poles over the past few weeks, coupled with his win at Darlington. He starts 3rd on Sunday, and while he is firmly in the dominator conversation, I cannot live in a world where Briscoe runs away with two consecutive races.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 23-29 (9.55 u)

This team Penske H2H is an intriguing one. Cindric starts 9th and has been fairly consistent here; my model projects him to maintain his track position. Logano starts a few spots back in 13th and has been incredible here, but my model actually thinks he is going to fall back a bit. While I believe Logano is the better DFS play, the model thinks he will actually lose this H2H.

Underdog let me down this week, but DK is starting Pick6 contests, which I am currently locked out of. However, they do offer interesting opportunities to those who live in states where participation is allowed. Fastest laps are notoriously difficult to project, but the easiest way to rack them up is to lead laps, and my model doesn’t expect Hamlin to get the lead early. Instead of betting the under on his laps led prop, we are going to target the fastest laps prop instead. Byron starts 6th but has not finished better than 8th in his last three races here. He is projected to finish 21st and only score 11.63 DK pts on Sunday.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 6-12 (-3.09 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Enjoy Illinois 300 Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!