🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Enjoy Illinois 300🏁

Welp, last week we got five hours of chaos which actually turning out to be fairly entertaining. This week we will get a whole bunch of uncertainty as NASCAR travels to World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway in Madison, IL for the enjoy Illinois 300. This is the premiere Cup Series race for this track, which is a Trucks staple but also has hosted Xfinity races in the past. The track is a 1.25 mile, flat, asphalt oval. The track visually looks like Darlington and turns 1 and 2 are similar to Loudon while turns 3 and 4 are similar to Phoenix. Tires have been a big story recently and this specific tire combination was used at Phoenix and Richmond this season, two relatively calm races.

On to Gateway!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 240 laps will be run and 60 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 350 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 90 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

We have literally nothing to go on here from track history, which is not the best feeling. This is a short-er track, measuring only 1.25 miles but we are also getting fewer laps. Judging by how these types of races generally play out, I would imagine a 2 dominator build will be optimal. There should be at least one driver that leads more than 100 laps and a second driver that leads 70+ laps. I don't have a good feel for where the dominators will start though. The top 5 drivers have their pros and cons and I think at least one dominator starts from that range. The second dominator could come from anywhere though, there are fast drivers all over this field so one good move could get them up front for a while.

One trend we have been seeing is bargain drivers making the perfect lineup solely based on attrition at historically low attrition tracks. The tire situation has been a well documented one this season and it has turned several races on its head. As mentioned previously, this is the third time we have seen this tired combination this season and the two previous races have been uneventful. I think we should focus our efforts on finding place differential drivers that can finish in the top 15 with positive place differential. Top 10 upside is nice but if we can get all 6 drivers finishing in the top 15 with 2 dominators we should be in good shape.

Stage 1: 45 laps, Stage 2: 95 laps, Stage 3: 100 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($8,500 DK, $8,000 FD)

Hi, I'm Joe and I have an apparent Kevin Harvick problem. There were no issues during inspection/practice/qualifying this week so this will be the first race without a free square in a while. Harvick, therefore, fills the role of safest place differential driver for this race. Kevin in starting 20th on Sunday and showed some speed in practice, running the 15th fastest single lap speed and 12th best 5 lap average. What really draws me to Harvick for this race is his performances at Phoenix, Richmond and to a certain extent Darlington this year. He has finished in the top 6 in each of those three races this year and picked up at least 5 places in all of those races as well. I love Harvick's price this week and I think a top 10 is a reasonable floor, which is perfect for cash this week.

AJ Allmendinger ($6,200 DK, $3,500 FD)

Allmendinger did not practice or qualify for this race so he is going in with a bit of a handicap (in addition to starting in the rear) but I really can't pass up a driver of his caliber starting 35th. I stated that there was no free square for this race when writing up Harvick because there are no high-priced drivers starting in the rear. I wouldn't qualify Allmendinger as a free square because I don't think he has top 10 potential and really think he may struggle to crack the top 15. The good this is Allmendinger is cheap enough that any finish in the top 22 will make him useable in cash.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,600 DK, $10,500 FD)

Blaney is starting 5th on Sunday and he brought a rocket ship to the race track this weekend. During practice, he ran the second-best single lap time, the best 5-lap average, and the second-best 10 and 15 lap averages. Blaney has the best combined performances at both Richmond and Phoenix this season out of any driver in the top 5 and I think he is the most likely early dominator. It will be interesting to see the Logano/Blaney battle this weekend. Logano had the only car better than Blaney at practice and he starts 7th. Logano won at Darlington this year but did not turn in excellent races at Richmond or Phoenix. The convention wisdom would indicate that Blaney is the better play but if this track races more like Darlington, Logano could go under-owned (just food or thought).

Aric Almirola ($7,000 DK, $7,000 FD)

Is this track short? Yes! Is this track flat? Yes! Congratulations, Almirola should make your player pool on Sunday. The reason Aric is in the risky spot of the week is his starting position, 8th. Almirola has performed better this year than the last two years but has actually underwhelmed at his bread and butter track types, the short flats. I am expecting a bit of positive regression this weekend and would actually be satisfied if Almirola finished where he started. If he picks up any places he will already pay off his salary. Be warned, however, that there is a massive downside with this play so I would use him in big tournaments and qualifiers only.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

Dillon starts 26th on Sunday and has significant upside for the price. He had top 15 finishes at both Phoenix and Darlington this year and at least 6 places pos place differential in each of the three similar tracks this season. To his credit Dillon also practiced very well here, posting the 18th best single lap time and 17th best 5 lap average.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Gateway that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($8,000 DK, $7,800 FD)

Joey Logano ($8,900 DK, $10,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($7,100 DK, $5,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Erik Jones ($7,300 DK, $6,800 FD)

This is a bit of a strange fade for me but Jones feels super trappy. Jones is starting 21st on Sunday and has a very nice price. He showed short-run speed in practice but fell off a cliff for his 10 lap average. I think Jones will garner a ton of attention as a high upside place differential play but I don't see it that way. Jones finished 25th at Phoenix and Darlington and 23th at Richmond with negative place differential in all 3 races. I am going to be avoiding Jones on Sunday and if he burns me, so be it.

Pitstop Picks

9-21 (-9.7u)

I finally hit a bet and it was a top 10 so let's keep it rolling. Suarez is one of my "Other Drivers to Consider" because I think he has a top 10 ceiling from his 23rd place starting position. He finished 9th at Phoenix and 10th at Darlington with massive positive place differential. I was hoping to get him at +150 like we did with Harvick last week so I was pleasantly surprised to see this line.

I am not the biggest fan of Briscoe and I think Reddick is very close to a win. Reddick has been consistent at similar tracks and I like the idea of him getting his first win at new track. Briscoe won at Phoenix but I prefer Reddick at plus money.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Enjoy Illinois 300 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!