Written by @joejets19

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Echopark Texas Grand Prix 🏁

NASCAR is pulling out all of the stops this weekend, we have practice, qualifying and an entirely new track introduced to the circuit this weekend. What more could you ask for....probably a little more time between qualifying and the start of the race but whatever, they aren't perfect. The Circuit of the Americas is making its much anticipated NASCAR debut this Sunday when it hosts the Echopark Texas Grand Prix. The track is a 20 turn, 3.41-mile road course with 133 feet of elevation change. Since its 2012 opening, COTA has hosted Formula 1, IndyCar, and MotoGP races among others, and will now add NASCAR Truck, Xfinity, and Cup series races to its resume. The schedule this week is crazy with practice Saturday morning and qualifying Sunday morning at 11 am, only a few hours before green flag time. As of the writing of the Pitstop, we will not have the starting lineup so we will have to attack this weekend a little differently. As always, active in chat and follow along on Twitter for up to the minute updates and analysis. Weather looks to be an issue until Tuesday but the cars will have rain tires so that won't be an issue, thunderstorms will be what NASCAR has to watch out for.

On to COTA!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 68 laps will be run this and 17 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 60 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 27 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Sunday will be the first race since the Daytona 500 where we have qualifying and it is happening 3 hours before lineup lock so not only do we have very limited data to go on, we will have very little time to make decisions. The finishing position projections I am posting in the cheatsheet do not factor in starting position, so they will not change on Sunday. I think the best way to attack this slate will be to do our research and create a play pool Saturday night/Sunday morning and have an ideal starting position in mind for those drivers. If a driver you have your eye on qualifies where you want them to, you can keep them in your driver pool and then further narrow down who you like once the field is set.

Road courses are always interesting because of the lack of dominator points available. There will only be 68 laps run on Sunday, which will only provide 44 total dominator points so it will be a low scoring affair. These races are generally where I have to point out the difference between a place differential driver and a finishing position driver. Traditionally (when the starting lineups weren't set by the formula) we would want to focus our attention on finishing position drivers. That means if driver A and driver B are around the same salary but Driver A is starting 15th and we expect him to finish 9th and Driver B is starting 31st and we expect him to finish 18th, Driver A is actually the better play because he will finish with 41 DK points vs 38 DK points. We always think of non-domiantors as place differential drivers but in this case, Driver A only has a pos place diff of 6 and Driver B has a pos place diff of 13, but Driver A still handily outscored Driver B. It is a riskier way to approach lineup building because drivers starting further forward have a much lower floor if they run into trouble but that is the type of mentality we have to approach these types of races with.

Salaries are fairly modest across the board so we can pretty much fit anyone we want into our lineups. I think one dominator lineups will be popular but we should still be able to fit two studs into our lineups just because they aren't that expensive. I believe we should try to build our lineups around 6 drivers that can finish in the top 10 with positive place diff. If good drivers struggle in qualifying we can focus on them as big movers but don't think you have to roster a couple of guys starting 28th or worse because they can pick up a ton of spots. I would avoid the bargain basement this weekend in GPPs but would roster one cheap driver in cash if it meant being able to fit another upper mid-level driver.

Stage 1: 15 laps, Stage 2: 17 laps, Stage 3: 36 laps

Studs

Chase Elliott ($10,500 DK, $14,500 FD)

Going into this weekend I thought Elliott would be the odds on favorite to win and be the highest priced driver on both sites, I am pleasantly surprised that I am wrong. Elliott has had a slow start to this season but he is lights out on road courses with five wins in the last eight races on them. He always finds his way up front, at rovals and traditional road courses alike, and has led at least 27 laps in six of their last eight races. Elliott provides some value this weekend. While he is the highest priced driver on FD, he is the second highest priced driver on DK and, most astonishingly, the DK Sportsbook has him at +800 to win which is behind Truex, Larson and Hamlin and tied with Kyle Busch.

Ideal starting position: 1-10

Kyle Busch ($9,900 DK, $12,500 FD)

The second stud I am interested in on Sunday is Kyle Busch. That is not to say that Truex isn't a fantastic play, but I think Busch provides similar upside at lower ownership. Kyle has been downright terrible at rovals and I think that will draw a ton of attention because they are the only road courses we have seen in almost two years. His history at Watkins Glen and Sonoma has been very good and even though he hasn't been dominant, he is able to finish well and lead a few laps. I don't expect Busch to be a dominator but a top 5 is well within reason.

Ideal starting position: 5-15

Mid-Range Targets

Kurt Busch ($8,100 DK, $9,000 FD)

The other Busch brother is also no slouch at road courses. While Kyle Busch starts well, finishes well, and may lead a few laps, Kurt struggles at qualifying and doesn't lead laps but that opens him up for some serious place differential points. In his last six races at Watkins Glen and Sonoma, Kurt has an average finish of 8.5 and an average positive place diff of 11. Kurt is a cash safe option with GPP winning upside and top 10 potential.

Ideal starting position: 15-25

Austin Cindric ($8,700 DK, $8,200 FD)

Cindric would have been an absolute lock if we had formula qualifying but he should still be in our player pool for the time being. As I have discussed in previous Pitstops, he is a top-notch driver in Penske equipment and definitely worth his price tag. Cindric has limited Cup experience at road courses but has been incredible during his tenure in the Xfinity series with wins at Daytona, Mid-Ohio, and Road America. I'm interested in seeing his ownership on Sunday, but either way, he is firmly in play.

Ideal starting position:15-25

Michael McDowell ($7,400 DK, $8,500 FD)

McDowell is an underrated road course racer who may go overlooked due to his price increase. McDowell has finished in the top 20 in six of the last eight road races and had an 8th place finish earlier but it did come with a negative place differential. McDowell showed promising speed in practice despite the rain and could help differentiate any lineup from the field.

Ideal starting position: 20-30

Bargain Basement

James Davison ($5,000 DK, $3,000 FD)

I do not encourage playing any of the lower-tier drivers in GPPs but they could be useful in cash. Davison has shown some success at road courses with three straight top 30 finishes with positive place differential. He has a good chance to pull off a top 25 which isn't fantastic but it could make him cash game viable.

Ideal starting position: 30-40

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at COTA that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Chase Briscoe ($6,400 DK, $7,000 FD)

Christopher Bell ($8,300 DK, $9,500 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($9,100 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

AJ Allmendinger ($8,500 DK, $8,000 FD)

This fade will not be for the faint of heart. Dinger was thought of as a road course specialist during his time as a full time Cup driver and still comes back for those races during his semi-retirement. AJ will be popular on Sunday and does have a good chance of finishing well but if you dig a little deeper into his road history he is not great at Sonoma, which is think is the most comparable track on the current schedule. His last five finishes at Sonoma are as follows: 38, 35, 14, 37 and 37 which makes him a nice GPP/Satelite fade, especially at his high projected ownership.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Echopark Texas Grand Prix Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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