🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix 🏁

A poet once wrote "Variety is the very spice of life, that gives it all its flavor" and who would have thought 200+ years later NASCAR officials would finally take that to heart. So far we have seen superspeedway of, 2 miles, 1.5 miles, 1-mile oval, and an intermediate track turned superspeedway to start the season and we are now going to embark on a stretch of road courses, 2 short tracks, a dirt track, and a superspeedway. There has never been a better time to be a NASCAR fan, but these teams and drivers have to be going nuts because they have to balance all of these track types with the new car, which brings an entirely different dynamic into play. That is enough of a preamble, let's dig into the race. The EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix will take place Sunday afternoon at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, TX. The track is a 3.41 mile, 20 turn road course that features steep inclines, blind corners, and hairpin turns. The weather looks perfect for this year's race, unlike the track's debut race last season.

On to Cota!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 68 laps will be run and 17 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 55 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 24.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

At first glance, there should be some blatantly obvious differences between road courses and a standard race. The biggest thing we should notice is that there are significantly fewer laps and therefore significantly fewer dominator points. Every time NASCAR visits a road course, I like to point out the difference between place differential drivers and finishing position drivers. We are used to looking for drivers that start in the back of the field that we think can pick up a decent number of places. These drivers may pick up 10-15 and finish 15-20th and everyone is happy. In that scenario, a 30th place driver finishing 15th, the driver will score 43 DK pt plus any fastest laps. We can take a separate scenario, if the 10th place driver finishes 5th he will score 44 DK pts plus any fastest laps. At tracks where it is very difficult to pass, we should favor the 10th place driver because he doesn't have to pass as many people to obtain a higher score. With that being said, these drivers starting further up bring extra risk if something were to go awry, and with the added unknown of the new car, front loaded lineups will be extra nerve-racking on Sunday. Rain blew up the ending of last season's race but I think a general theme can be applied. We will want drivers that can finish in the top 10 with positive place differential. These driver may not need to make huge moves to get into the top 10, they may even start there and just pick up some spots but either way we should focus our player pool on drivers we think can score a top 10 with positive place differential. I wouldn't go crazy trying to figure out who will dominate the race, if we focus on who can finish well and possibly win the race, the dominator points will find a way into our lineups.

Stage 1: 15 laps, Stage 2: 15 laps, Stage 3: 38 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

I think a major decision we will have on Sunday is who should we own more of, Elliott or Larson. Elliott is the slightly more expensive of the two and will start one spot ahead of Larson (12 vs 13) but did have a much slower practice speed. Elliott is also getting a ton of hype for winning last year's race at COTA but Larson will be no pushover, Kyle won three road races last year and has a fantastic history at this track type. The real reason I give the edge to Elliott is his handling of the new car. Larson has been uncharacteristically boom or bust this year with a win and a 2nd place finish as well as three finishes 30th or worse. Elliott, on the other hand. has been much more consistent this year with only 1 finish outside the top 11. In cash games I prefer the steady hand and will be rolling with Elliott on Sunday.

AJ Allmendinger ($8,800 DK, $10,800 FD)

AJ has a long history of being a fantastic road racer, even though he doesn't spend too much time in the Cup series these days. Allmendinger starts 20th on Sunday but showed some real speed in practice, posting the 8th best single lap speed. He ran well in road races last year with three top 7 finishes including a win. Speaking of winning, Allmendinger won the Xfin race here on Saturday, which we should hope as an omen for good things to come.

Tournament Targets

Kurt Busch ($7,800 DK, $7,800 FD)

Kurt Busch is the exact type of driver I would generally look past at a regular track that could be very useful on Sunday. Busch starts 11th on Sunday and is incredibly cheap considering the upside he provides. Kurt finished in the top 6 in three of the traditional road races last season and has a fantastic long-term history at this track type. While a win is improbable, a top 5 is squarely in his range of outcomes and at that price, he would be able to make the perfect lineup with a good finish.

Erik Jones ($7,400 DK, $6,800 FD)

Jones is in an interesting spot on Sunday because he is priced fairly, but his starting position of 30th makes him a very juicy option for both cash and gpps. Erik has run incredibly well for 90% of most races this season but keeps running into trouble late. I am hoping he can change that trend on Sunday and come close to replicating his 2021 race at COTA where he started 29th and finished 16th.

Bargain Basement

Harrison Burton ($5,800 DK, $4,800 FD)

This is much more risk than I am usually willing to take on a bargain basement driver but it may be crazy enough to work. Burton is starting 19th on Sunday and only needs to pick up 3 spots to hit 5x value. Anything more than 30 points from a basement would cause me to grin ear to ear and Burton has a chance to do that this weekend. He had top 10 finishes at Indy, Watkins Glen, COTA, and Road America last year during his Xfinity series run so he definitely knows what it takes to run well at a road course.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at COTA that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD)

William Byron ($9,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,900 DK, $7,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Cole Custer ($6,000 DK, $5,000 FD)

Going with the low-hanging fruit this week. Custer is a respectable road racer for the price but he is simply unplayable starting 3rd. The sicko in my head wants me to look on the bright side, that he can reach 5x value if he finishes in the top 9 but that will be a huge ask for Custer this Sunday. Cole is slightly better at Rovals, which COTA, unfortunately, is not.

Pitstop Picks

Two tough luck losses last week, one good week will turn us around

4-8 (-2.65u)

Doubling down on the Kurt love this weekend. He starts 11th as mentioned above and should be able to pick up at least a spot or two over the course of 68 laps.

I ran out of spots up above so I couldn't write up Kyle in long form but he is one of the most underrated road racers in the field. He quietly ripped off three straight top 5 finishes at non-Roval road courses last season. Busch had the best single lap speed during practice on Saturday and should be in the mix for the entire race.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the EchoPark Automotive Texas Grand Prix cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!