LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Cheatsheet

EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix🏁

Two straight exciting finishes have started the 2025 NASCAR season on the right foot. The Cup Series looks to continue their hot start this Sunday when they travel to the newly reconfigured Circuit of the Americas in Austin, TX, for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix. The drivers will now run the 20-turn, 2.3-mile “National” Course, a significantly shorter venue. To compensate, the number of laps run will now increase from 68 to 95, adding close to 50% more dominator points.

Our string of good weather continues this weekend. Even if there was rain in the forecast, road courses utilize rain tires, so we would only need to watch out for lightning.

_{On to the Circuit of the Americas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 95 laps will be run this week, and 23.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 87 laps should run under the green flag for 39.15 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Dominators don’t rack up a ton of points. Three of the four COTA races featured only one dominator, but they did not significantly outscore the field. We should focus on drivers that can finish well rather than dominators.

2) Front loaded lineups are not always successful. Since the implementation of the new aero package, passing at road courses has been very difficult. The general rule of thumb was to front-load your lineups at this track type, but that has not been the case here. There has never been a perfect lineup that featured more than 2 drivers that started in the top 10, but every perfect lineup had at least one driver starting 30th or worse.

3) Race strategy will add an extra layer of confusion. While passing may not be easy, the field can get jumbled around stage breaks because it is possible to short-pit the stage. In essence, every driver needs to pit about once a stage, and cautions are very few and far between, so drivers have a choice to make close to stage breaks. Drivers can pit before the end of the stage and then stay out at the break and “pass” all the drivers who did not pit. There is no real way to predict who will do what, that is why correlated track history is an important stat to look at because drivers who understand the dynamics of road racing strategy have a significant advantage.

4) Basement drivers are in play. Don’t be afraid to dip into the bargain basement, but they will still need to finish in the top 15. If you can build a balanced lineup, don’t feel pressured to force a basement driver in there, though. 2/4 perfect lineups didn’t have a driver that cost less than than $7000.

Stage 1: 20 Laps

Stage 2: 25 Laps

Stage 3: 50 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Austin Cindric ($8,000 DK, $7,500 FD) Cindric is starting second to last and is a much better road racer than that. I expect Austin to crack the top 20 with relative ease, I worry about his ceiling in tournaments though.

Alex Bowman ($8,300 DK, $9,000 FD): Bowman is perpetually undervalued at road courses. Starting 21st, he has nothing but upside, and I love him for a top-10 finish.

Chris Buescher ($8,100 DK, $8,500 FD): Buescher is no stranger to qualifying poorly at road courses, and his average place differential at COTA of 13 indicates that he is on to a successful strategy here. He will need a top 10 to be in perfect lineup consideration but he should be safe enough cash play.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,000 DK, $10,500 FD): Elliott is starting third, but he is my model’s favorite driver in the field. He is a fantastic road racer with a previous win here. He knows what it takes to win, and I love his chances on Sunday.

Ross Chastain ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD): Chastain flies under the radar at road courses and I am ok with that. He starts 9th on Sunday and should be in contention for a victory all race. He has never finished worse than 7th at COTA and even took the checkered flag in 2022.

Kyle Busch ($7,700 DK, $8,200 FD): Busch did horrendous things in practice, and I am banking on that, scaring people off. He starts 8th on Sunday, making him more of a pivot off of Chastain rather than a companion. Kyle has finished in the top 10 in ¾ races here, and I am looking for him to continue his streak on Sunday.

Justin Haley ($6,300 DK, $5,200 FD) Haley is not a driver we generally target at road courses, but he has three top 20 finishes in four races here. His one pitiful 40th-place finish skews most of his stats, but in reality, he has been fairly successful. If he can sneak into the top 20 from his 29th-place starting position, he would be a major asset to any lineup.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($5,700 DK, $3,500 FD)

Preece starts 28th on Sunday and, admittedly, does not jump off the page, but the basement is brutal this weekend. Preece finished 15th in the inaugural COTA race, and if he can get anywhere near there again, he will make the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at COTA that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

AJ Allmendinger ($8,900 DK, $11,000 FD)

Ty Gibbs ($8,400 DK, $10,000 FD)

Joey Logano ($7,200 DK, $7,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Carson Hocevar ($7,000 DK, $6,200 FD)

Hocevar was a complete wrecking ball last weekend, and while I know this is a completely different track type, I can’t trust him not to do something silly and destroy his 4th place starting position.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2024 results: 2-2 (1 u)

Road courses are legitimately SVG’s bread and butter, but outside of Chicago, he hasn’t had as much success at them as you would have expected. Chastain is consistently good here, and it will take a top 5 finish to win this battle on Sunday.

I love fading outsiders, so betting a not top 10 was a no-brainer for Zilisch. As for Gibb, he has two career top-10 finishes at COTA and starts 13th. It is realistic for Ty to pick up one spot on Sunday.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 0-1 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Cheatsheet

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