LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

🔗Download the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Cheat Sheet

EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix🏁

Right turns are back for the first time this season as NASCAR travels to the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, TX, for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix. The track is a 20-turn, 3.426-mile road course that hosts NASCAR, F1, and Grand Prix motorcycle races yearly. The Cup series made a major change this season to how they handle road races. There will no longer be stage breaks which take a ton of the unpredictability out of these events. Hopefully, we can use this to our advantage on Sunday.

Weather should not be an issue on Sunday due to the warm Texas forecast and the rain tires…but mostly the forecast.

On to COTA!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 68 laps will be run, and 17 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 58 laps should run under the green flag for 26.1 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

The first thing you should notice from the scoring breakdown is that there are next to no dominator points available this weekend. Sunday’s race will run the fewest laps of any race this season, and that has huge DFS implications. The strategy needed to be successful in NASCAR DFS, more than any other sport in my opinion, is highly dependent on the track type, and road courses need to be treated like the unique beings they are. While constructing lineups this weekend we will need to prioritize a driver’s potential finishing position over anything else. The best way to illustrate this is to look at Noah Gragson starting 10th vs. Chris Buescher starting 32nd. If Gragson runs a solid race and picks up 3 spots, his 7th place finish will score 40 DK pts. On the other hand, Buescher could race his tail off and pick up 14 spots but only score 39 DK pts due to his 18th place finishing position. While this is a consideration in every race, passing is incredibly difficult at road races, so fewer drivers are making massive place differential moves, and we will need to look at drivers that are starting further forward to make marginal improvements throughout the race.

Removing stage breaks will eliminate the “pit before the break” strategy that completely jumbled the running order at pretty much every road race for the past few years. While that would seem like it could make a dominator emerge, any negative place differential would totally wipe out all of the dominator points accumulated. Trying to nail the “dominator” is how we attack almost every slate, but we may want to avoid that strategy entirely this weekend. As uncomfortable as that makes me to even write unless a driver leads wire to wire and wins, there is a real possibility that the driver that leads the most laps could not make the perfect lineup.

Our goal this weekend is to roster six drivers that have top-10 potential, therefore the bargain basement will offer us limited options. In cash there is an argument to save salary by picking one dirt cheap driver but in tournaments a balanced lineup may be optimal.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($10,100 DK, $13,000 FD)

Over the past two years Chastain has solidified himself as one of the premier road racers in NASCAR. He starts 12th on Sunday is should find himself inside the top 5 in no times. Ross ran the third best single lap time in practice on Friday and posted the second best 5 lap average. A starting position outside the top 10 has not proven to bother Chastain at COTA, he has a win and a 4th place finish in his two career races here. While he will be very popular, I think Chastain is one of the drivers that have a very good chance of a top 10 finish with some lap leading potential making him an ideal driver to build around.

Austin Dillon ($6,400 DK, $5,000 FD)

Dillon is on the cusp of starting too far back to be in consideration for tournaments but he is more than viable in cash games. Starting 28th this Sunday, Austin is looking to provide us some place differential potential for cheap. His average finish in two races here is 11th and he has an average positive place differential of 7.5 places. Dillon did not have an impressive single lap time in practice on Friday but his 11th best 5 lap average is an encouraging sign considering the possibility of several long green flag runs.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,100 DK, $9,500 FD)

Blaney is a tournament play, as opposed to a lineup foundation target this weekend due to the road racing dynamic. He is a very good road racer with an average finish of 11.5 here and a non-Roval average finish of 13.67 at road races last season. Blaney’s starting position of 38th offers an immense amount of place differential potential, but making massive moves at COTA is not easy, or likely, so I actually worry about his ability to hit his ceiling. If Blaney reaches his average finishing position on Sunday he is a lock for the perfect lineup, but that is far from a guarantee, so I caution against getting overexposed to him this weekend.

Michael McDowell ($9,100 DK, $7,800 FD)

While everyone is looking at Austin Dillon, Chris Buescher or Jimmie Johnson for place differential on Sunday, I will be loading up on Michael McDowell. McDowell starts 20th and is coming off of two straight top 13 finishes. To prove his COTA finishes aren’t flukes, Michael had an average finish of 5.67 at non-Roval road races last season. He ran the 6th best single lap time and 7th best five-lap average in practice on Friday, indicating there is considerable speed in his car this weekend. Overall I think McDowell has the potential to be overlooked on Sunday, and he could provide tournament winning upside to our lineups.

Bargain Basement

Noah Gragson ($5,600 DK, $4,500 FD)

I know I mentioned Gragson earlier in the Pitstop, and I really think he has top 10 potential, which is awesome for a driver in his price range. Starting 10th, Gragson is already in top 10 position, but I think he has the ability to hold on to his track position and even possible improve it over time. Noah ran well here in one of his two XFIN races, and his practice times make it seem like he has a top 15 car so I think it is well with the range of possibilities that he can pick up a spot or two.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at COTA that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($8,600 DK, $8,000 FD)

Ryan Preece ($6,000 DK, $6,000 FD)

Christopher Bell ($9,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daniel Suarez ($9,000 DK, $10,500 FD)

Suarez is starting 5th on Sunday and hasn’t finished better than 24th in either of his Cup races here. While Daniel was considerably better at similar tracks last season, his COTA track record is horrific, and I expect that to continue on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 0-6 (-6 u)

At the time of this writing, there is almost nothing posted on DK or MGM to bet on. Even though I did not write up Jones in the Pitstop I think he is an interesting option on Sunday. Erik generally qualifies poorly but finished decently at road tracks. This weekend he is starting 8th, an unfamiliar circumstance. Considering the odds I think there is closer to 1 in 6 chance that Jones will pick up 3 spots in this race, so I am going for a value play.

In a matchup between two non-NASCAR drivers almost anything can happen. Raikkonen ran a nice race last year at Watkins Glenn, but he ran into trouble late. You almost never see H2Hs this lopsided, so I will take the dog and hope Kimi blows a tire at some point.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 1-1 (1.6u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!