LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Cheatsheet

DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix🏁

Tyler Reddick is the hottest man in racing so far this year, pulling off a second consecutive drafting track victory. Last weekend’s race at Atlanta was exactly what NASCAR was hoping for, high speed passes, a Big One, and intense racing for 260 straight laps. Ultimately, Reddick was victorious, and this weekend he has already proven he is more than a one-trick pony, earning the pole for the upcoming DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyn,e which is being held at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. COTA is a 20-turn, 2.3-mile road course with various layouts, including a 3.41-mile course that is an F1 staple. While this variation of the track has a shorter straightaway and overall slower speeds, the additional laps provided more chances of passing last year. It is important to note that road tracks are almost the polar opposite of superspeedways, so make sure to check out the Lineup Construction section to see how we are going to attack this slate.

Texas is going to be hot on Sunday with temperatures expected to be in the mid 80s. There is a very small chance of rain in the mid-morning, but I don’t expect that to be much of an issue by the time the green flag drops.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 95 laps will be run this week, and 23.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 85 laps should run under the green flag for 38.25 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Dominators don’t rack up a ton of points. Four of the five COTA races featured only one dominator, but they did not significantly outscore the field. We should focus on drivers that can finish well rather than dominators.

2) Front loaded lineups are not always successful. Since the implementation of the new aero package, passing at road courses has been very difficult. The general rule of thumb was to front-load your lineups at this track type, but that has not been the case here. There has never been a perfect lineup that featured more than 2 drivers that started in the top 10, but last year was the first race that didn’t feature a driver starting worse than 24th

3) Race strategy will add an extra layer of confusion. While passing may not be easy, the field can get jumbled around stage breaks because it is possible to short-pit the stage. In essence, every driver needs to pit about once a stage, and cautions are very few and far between, so drivers have a choice to make close to stage breaks. Drivers can pit before the end of the stage and then stay out at the break and “pass” all the drivers who did not pit. There is no real way to predict who will do what; that is why correlated track history is an important stat to look at, because drivers who understand the dynamics of road racing strategy have a significant advantage.

4) Basement drivers are in play. Don’t be afraid to dip into the bargain basement, but they will still need to finish in the top 15. If you can build a balanced lineup, don’t feel pressured to force a basement driver in there, though. 2/5 perfect lineups didn’t have a driver that cost less than than $7000.

Stage 1: 20 Laps

Stage 2: 25 Laps

Stage 3: 50 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Shane Van Gisbergen ($13,000 DK, $15,000 FD): SVG was my favorite fade and road courses last season, and it cost me a ridiculous amount of money. Shane won every road race except COTA last year, and this year he looks to avenge his loss. Fortunately for us, he was not great on Saturday, so we got the most expensive driver in the field with some place differential upside from his 13th-place starting position. While he struggled in the short run during practice, he ran the third-best 5-lap average, and his years of right-turn experience make me think he will be up front before long.

Daniel Suarez ($6,900 DK, $6,800 FD): Suarez is another driver who is solid at road racing overall but has not been able to piece it together at COTA. He starts 23rd on Sunday, which is seven spots better than his average finish here, but if practice is any indication, he has a top 10 car. Daniel is cheap enough that any finish in the top 15 would make him a viable cash option.

Alex Bowman ($7,800 DK, $9,200 FD): My model has loved Bowman in each of the last three races, and he is usually one of my favorite picks at road races because he is perpetually under-owned. His mid-tier pricing and 16th place starting position would put him in no man’s land at a typical oval, but at a road course, that is almost an ideal place. Alex has an average finish of 5.2 here with an average positive place differential of 7. He knows how to race his way towards the front at COTA, and that is what I am expecting him to do on Sunday.

Tournament Targets

Ross Chastain ($8,100 DK, $9,500 FD): Chastain starts on the front row next to Reddick, but my model gives the nod to Ross this weekend. A driver starting on the front row has ended up in the perfect lineup in two of the last four races, but for this strategy to work, Chastain needs to dominate. He is very good here with an average finish of 5.6, including a win in 2022. If he can keep it close with Reddick in the first few lap,s I expect Chastain to make an aggressive move early to capture the lead.

Kyle Busch ($8,000 DK, $7,800 FD): Kyle Busch’s ability to finish well here makes no sense, but it is very difficult to ignore. Busch has finished in the top 9 in each of the last three COTA races, including two top 5s. While he generally qualifies well and finishes well, this Sunday, Kyle will have to race his way from his 30th starting position. While that may seem like added place differential potential, I think it actually makes him significantly more risky, and that is why he is not a cash play.

Austin Cindric ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD): Cindric came into the Cup Series with a reputation as a road ringer, but he has not been able to figure it out consistently on the main stage. He has two top 8 finishes here, but those were due to his fantastic starting position. On Sunday, he starts 28th, but he showed top 15 speed during practice. If he can channel some of his Xfinity road racing prowes,s Austin could break the slate open with a top 10 finish.

Connor Zilisch ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD): The reigning Xfinity Series regular season champion is currently the second-highest priced driver of the slate and starts 25th on Sunday. Like Cindric, Zilisch was a renowned road racer in the lower circuits that has not been able to make it translate at the Cup Series. Connor’s price is astronomical, but for the salary, most people will gravitate to SVG, which puts the young phenom in a unique pivot position this weekend.

Bargain Basement

Erik Jones ($5,700 DK, $3,000 FD)

I don’t feel great about this Jones play, but the basement is rough this weekend. Erik starts 36th on Sunday, a spot that he is oddly familiar with at COTA. In his last four races here, Jones has started 30th or worse in three of them, but he does have a top finish of 8th. Anything in the top 20 would be serviceable, and he did run the 25th-best single lap average, so I guess there’s a chance?

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at COTA that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ryan Blaney ($7,500 DK, $7,500 FD)

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($8,300 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Tyler Reddick ($9,500 DK, $11,500 FD)

Reddick is looking for a three-peat from the pole at a road course. All of this is screaming negative regression, and even if he manages to win, unless he leads a significant number of laps, he still may not make the perfect lineup. Depending on the line, maybe I would put some money on a top 5 finish, but as for DFS, Reddick is a hard pass.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u) 2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u) 2025 results: 29-41 (6.2 u)

2026 results: 2-2 (0.15 u)

This is a razor-thin H2H on paper. My model predictions are Briscoe to finish 8th and Gibbs to finish 9th, but a deeper dive shows that Gibbs actually has a better average finish in my race simulations. As for COTA history, Briscoe hasn’t finished better than 13th in his last four races here, and Gibbs only has one finish worse than 9th in three tries. I can’t remember a matchup this close; it should be even money at best.

The sportsbooks don’t seem to know what to do with COTA currently, offering a very limited selection of bets. This is not a typical parlay I write up, but let’s see what happens. If SVG were to win the race on the last lap, he would not score enough points to win this prop; he needs a win and some dominator points. He is very clearly in a class of his own, but COTA is the one road course he has yet to conquer, and I try to avoid bets where you need a driver’s ceiling outcome to win. As for Kyle Larson, he would need a finish of 9th or better to win this prop without dominator points. In his last four races here, he has a top finish of 14th. He is an accomplished road racer, but I will be avoiding him on Sunday.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u) 2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 7-15 (-4.09 u)

2026 Results 1-1 (0.45 u)

I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Cheatsheet

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