🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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DuraMAX Drydene 400🏁

Talladega did not disappoint last weekend but I would be lying to you if I said I am excited about this upcoming race. This Sunday, NASCAR will travel to Dover, DE for the Duramax Drydene 400. The "Monster Mile" is a steeply banked 1-mile, concrete oval that proved to be a little difficult to handle during practice on Saturday. The weather could be an issue on Sunday so we will have to keep an eye out for any possible delays.

On to Dover!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 365 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 164.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Like all short and intermediate tracks, dominators are key at Dover. 400 laps will be run on Sunday so there are a ton of dominator points up for grabs. Nine of the last eleven races here have had at least 2 drivers that led more than 85 laps, with one race that had three dominators. Every driver that has led more than 85 laps in the last 11 races has ended up in the perfect lineup, despite finishing as far back as 15th. At least one driver starting on the front row has led more than 100 laps in nine of the last eleven races, but dominators have started as far back as 23rd. Clean air is definitely very important at Dover, but an exceptional car can make its way through the field.

Once we nail our dominators, finishing position is going to be the next thing we focus on. Our goal should be to roster at least 5 drivers that have top 10 potential. These drivers will not necessarily have to make huge moves, a top 10 finish with positive place differential or laps led is generally enough to get a driver into perfect lineup contention. One race recently, four drivers that started in the top 10 and finished in the top 10 made the perfect lineup. While I expect this to be more an exception than a rule, front loaded lineups can work at Dover.

Bargain drivers can serve a purpose at Dover, as long as they finish close to 20th. Instead of a super cheap driver, another option would be to roster 2 drivers in the $6,000-$7,000 range that can finish in the top 15.

Stage 1: 120 laps, Stage 2: 130 laps, Stage 3: 150 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

William Byron ($11,000 DK, $13,000 FD)

I hate writing the entire lineup construction section and then going off script with the first pick but sometimes these things land on your lap. Byron crashed in practice and will need to roll out the backup car for Sunday. Since he wasn't allowed to qualify, Byron will start 35th this weekend and has, hands down, the most place differential potential on the slate. I don't expect the backup car to be a hinderance in the slightest for William, who has been incredibly fast during the first part of the season. Byron has also had some success last year at Dover with back to back 4th places finishes. While a top 5 finish would be nice, he will only need at to crack the top 10 to hit 5x value. Instead of worrying about nailing 2 dominators in cash, a 1 dominator +Byron lineup could be a solid alternative.

Tyler Reddick ($8,800 DK, $8,800 FD)

Reddick is another fairly obvious place differential play for cash. Starting 26th on Sunday, Reddick is coming off of three straight top 18 finishes at Dover. While a top 18 is not exactly what we are looking for, Tyler has been able to pull off some incredible finishes this year at similar tracks. His 7th place finish at Las Vegas and 3rd place finish at Phoenix are a good indication that Reddick is poised to improve on his 8th place finish from last year's race at Dover.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

This is a tough one, to say the least, but I am going to trust track history and clean air. Hamlin, Larson and Elliott are the three most likely dominators for this race, and I will have exposure to all three of them to some degree. Larson seemed to have the best car over the long run in practice, with Elliott a close second. What neither of them have, however, is a front row starting position. If Hamlin is able to get by Buescher quickly, he could use the clean air to neutralize the speed of the other two. Hamlin didn't run a ton of laps in practice but his 10 lap average was a bit concerning so this is a moderately risky play. Hamlin already has a win at a short track this season when he did not have the best car, I think he has an even better chance of pulling off an upset this weekend.

Brad Keselowski ($7,700 DK, $7,800 FD)

This feels a little trappy but I am willing to take the risk for the price. Keselowski has struggled, by his standards, this year and is looking to bounce back at Dover. Brad is starting 20th on Sunday and comes at almost an obnoxious discount. He ran the 7th best single lap speed in practice on Saturday and turned in the best 5 laps average. Keselowski's teammate, Chris Buescher, captured the pole for the race which is a good omen to the speed in the RFK Racing cars this weekend. During his Penske days, Kes was always hanging around the top 10 at Dover and I expect him to continue that tradition this weekend.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD)

It's late and I'm borderline delusional so I almost wrote up Justin Haley in this spot but I don't have the guts for that. Gilliland is a safe option starting 34th. He also will be going to a backup car on Sunday but that shouldn't affect his modest ceiling too much. We do not need Todd to crack the top 15 or anything like that for him to be useful, if he gets near the 20th he should have a shot at the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Dover that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Austin Cindric ($7,300 DK, $6,800 FD)

Martin Truex Jr ($9,800 DK, $11,5000 FD)

Kurt Busch ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chris Buescher ($6,400 DK, $6,000 FD)

If there was ever a week I wanted my fade to blow up in my face it would be this Sunday. I enjoy being able to roster Buescher on weeks it makes sense but I can't see any way he is going to pay off his salary from the pole. I am happy he secured the first pole of his career but he is a complete no go for DFS purposes.

Pitstop Picks

Never even stood a chance last week.

5-17 (-10.65u)

You can't get any colder than me right now but let's keep plugging away. The outright market is brutal this week so we are going back to one of my favorites, groups. Kyle Busch has a mental block at Dover in the Spring and his yearly implosions are one of my favorite things to watch each year. Chastain is having an incredible year but I worry about post win fatigue. Briscoe has a win at Phoenix but besides that, he has one other non-superspeedway top 10. Overall I think Reddick is the safest option of the three and I think it will only take a top 10 finish to win the group.

Blaney has a habit of running well all race but finishing poorly at Dover and Truex always finds a way to finish in the top 5. Blaney was way better in practice, which is probably what drove this line, but overall I love Truex at plus money.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the DuraMAX Drydene 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!