Written by @joejets19

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Drydene 400 🏁

Martin Truex Jr. turned last Sunday's race into a Mother's Day Massacre of sort and he looks to continue his dominating ways when NASCAR travels to Dover International Speedway in Dover, DE for the Drydene 400. The track is a 1 mile, banked, concrete oval with the nickname "The Monster Mile." Weather does not seem to be an issue this weekend at this point, but that is always subject to change.

On to Dover!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run this and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 360 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 162 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Darlington provided almost 300 laps of high horsepower, low downforce fun and now Dover brings over 100 more laps to the table. As we know by now, dominators are the name of the game, especially when this many points are at stake. Dover have been pretty consistently a one to two dominator track, there were three drivers that led more than 100 laps in only one of the last 10 races here. There have been five drivers in the last ten races that have led more than 200 laps, and three of those drivers started in the front row. Dominators tend to start in the front of the field here, only three of the drivers that led more than 100 laps in the last 10 races here have started outside the top 10. I think we should focus most of our energy on constructing two dominator lineups with two drivers starting in the top 10. We can sprinkle in some one dominator lineups but I would limit my allocation of three dominator lineups.

We can cast a wide net of place differential drivers this weekend. Assuming our dominators finish in the top 10, we should aim for two more drivers that can finish in the top 10 with positive place differential and another two drivers that finish in the top 20 with positive place differential. Drivers do not need to make massive moves to land in the perfect lineup, they just need to be able to pick up a handful of spots and all drivers must finish within the top 20.

Stage 1: 120 laps, Stage 2: 120 laps, Stage 3: 160 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 35

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($11,900 DK, $14,000 FD)

In the new qualifying-by-formula era of racing, the pole position has been a complete trap but I think Truex Jr. is well-positioned to break the hex. Truex starts on the pole and is coming off of an utterly dominating performance at Darlington. One thing going in his favor this week is the aero package will be the same for this week and we already know his team has a very good setup. Truex has also been fantastic at Dover over his career. He has finished no worse than second in his last four races here, including a win. He will be starting next to his JGR teammate Denny Hamlin who has been impressive this year in his own right so this is not a runaway for Truex but I love his potential to be the main dominator of the race.

Kurt Busch ($8,700 DK, $8,500 FD)

Kurt Busch is starting 28th on Sunday and he provides us an amazing floor/ceiling combination to build our cash teams around. Usually when a highly skilled driver is starting towards the rear of the field the DK/FD price them up but they missed the boat on Kurt this weekend and we should look to capitalize. Kurt has an average finish of 14.17 in his last six races here (which includes a disastrous 40th place finish in the first leg of the doubleheader last year). A top 15 finish would put him on the cusp of the perfect lineup but realistically I think he has top 10 potential on Sunday.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,100 DK, $13,000 FD)

Denny Hamlin offers a great tournament pivot off of Martin Truex Jr. this weekend. Hamlin is having a fantastic season and is actually the points leader by a wide margin despite being winless. Hamlin has not been nearly as consistent at Dover as Truex but he has had considerable success. In his last three races here alone, Hamlin has a win and two races with more than 100 laps led. Hamlin has been similarly impressive at the other tracks featuring the 750 hp aero package (Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond, Darlington) with an average finish of 3.25 and a combined total of 516 laps led.

Cole Custer ($7,700 DK, $6,500 FD)

Custer is starting 30th on Sunday and is another driver who was not priced up despite his terrible starting position. Custer was impressive here last season with a 10th and 11th place finish here and he even had the 9th best green flag average in the second race of doubleheader. Cust has also been moderately success at similar tracks, with an average finish of 19th. A finish of 19th would make Custer cash game viable but I believe he can also provide significant tournament upside and may even sneak into the top 12.

Austin Dillon ($7,400 DK, $8,300 FD)

Austin Dillon is in an interesting position for the risky play of the week. He starts 14th on Sunday, which is a blind spot for me because he doesn't have massive place differential potential but also has a scary low floor. Dillon has a respectable track history with five consecutive top 19 finishes including two top 10s. He has also been decent at similar tracks with an average finish of 12.75. One interesting thing of note, my models like Dillon this weekend, he has an average projected finish of 8.9 with a high finish of 5th. While I wouldn't categorize Dillon as a cash-safe option, he does have tournament winning upside.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($5,900 DK, $2,000 FD)

This isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for Ryan Preece but if we are going to use "ability to finish in the top 20" as a parameter to build or lineups, there is serious slim pickings in the basement. I actually think Preece is the only sub-$6,000 driver with a top 20 here. For that reason alone, he is a GPP eligible option

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Dover that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($6,300 DK, $6,700 FD)

Alex Bowman ($9,200 DK, $10,000 FD)

Erik Jones ($7,200 DK, $6,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Busch ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

I love myself a good narrative and one of my favorites throughout the years is Kyle Busch stinks in the Spring Dover race. Busch's last six Spring finishes at Dover between 2014-2019 are as follows: 42, 36, 30, 16, 36, 10. While he is trending in the right direction, I am sticking to my guns and avoiding Kyle at all costs on Sunday.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Drydene 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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