Written by @joejets19

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Dixie Vodka 400 🏁

NASCAR rolls on this week, finally leaving Daytona but staying in Florida. The Dixie Vodka 400 will be held at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, FL. The track is a 1.5 mile progressively banked oval and is known for its high tire wear. There is a low chance of rain on Sunday but it is still Florida so who knows and we should get a finish under the lights with a late race start and an early sundown. Overall we should be in for an exciting 400 miles this weekend.

On to Homestead!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run this and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 240 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 108 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Homestead-Miami is the first in a long line of 1.5-mile tracks on the NASCAR circuit. While they might not be the most fun to watch, these tracks generally produce less variable results, which can be leveraged for DFS purposes. Since this is a high tire wear track, an extra layer of randomness is added because sometimes a tire just falls apart and ruins a driver’s day (not to mention a perfectly good lineup). Keep this in mind when constructing tournament lineups possibly pivoting off obvious chalk. Another odd thing about this track is until 2020 this was the site of the championship race. The top 4 drivers in that race sort of have the entire track to themselves, with no other drivers putting up too much of a fight, so take some of the histories with a grain of salt.

Looking back at previous races, we generally see one driver lead more than 100 laps and a secondary dominator that leads 70+ laps. One of the dominators generally start the front row with the secondary dominator starting pretty much anywhere. The low HP, low downforce aero-package provides a huge advantage to the car with the clean air so whoever gets out front will be difficult to pass. Besides two dominators, we should look for 3-4 drivers that can pick up at least five spots and preferably finish in the top 15. We may need to dip into the bargain basement this week but if we could avoid that it would be great.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Tyler Reddick ($8,500 DK, $9,200 FD)

Reddick has a chance to be the highest owned driver on the slate but he is a cash game lock as far as I’m concerned. Starting 35th with a reasonable salary, Reddick provides a safe floor and immense ceiling that will be useful in both cash and gpp lineups. He finished 4th last year in his only Cup race here and was able to rack up 48 fastest laps while running the high line around the track. Reddick was also phenomenal here during his time in Xfinity with two wins and a 4th place finish in three races. He dug himself into a sizable hole the first two races so now he looks to get himself back on track on Sunday.

Chase Briscoe ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD)

Briscoe is not a household name and is a rookie looking to break onto the scene at Homestead (similar to Reddick last year). Briscoe starts 30th on Sunday and has no Cup history at Homestead but he does have three top 7 finishes, including a win, in four starts here during his tenure in Xfinity. This year he is driving Clint Bowyer’s #14 that posted the 16th best green lap average in last year’s race so he will have a top 20 quality car. Briscoe is another driver that offers a solid floor at a discount and allows for some roster flexibility to fit in dominators.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($9,600 DK, $13,500 FD)

Hamlin starts on the pole Sunday, a position he is very familiar with at Homestead. Last year he dominated from the pole, leading 137 laps and adding 31 fastest laps on his way to victory. That has not always been the case however, Hamlin has a long history of disappointing from the pole position in Homestead races. Before last year, he had a combined 43 laps led in the previous four races where he started on the pole but he was not in contention for the Championship in three of those races so that may have played a factor. Hamlin had an incredibly fast car both here and at similar tracks last year so I think he is the man to beat on Sunday.

Austin Dillon ($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD)

Dillon starts 22nd on Sunday and I think is in a very interesting spot for tournaments. He is relatively expensive but he still offers a discount on the chalk starting in the 30s. I believe he will go slightly overlooked due to his starting position but his history is actually very impressive with an average finish of 9.25 and an average place differential of 8.5 in his last four races here. He was consistently good at similar tracks last year also, with an average finish of 17.7 and top 20 green flag average speeds. I am not expecting a top 10 finish from Dillon on Sunday but he checks all the boxes we need to build a tournament winning lineup.

Aric Almirola ($7,900 DK, $7,800 FD)

Frequent readers of the Pitstop will know that I reserve this spot for my risky driver of the week. Almirola is a weird pick for this race because he is kind of blah. He starts 16th and is reasonably priced. Nothing truly stands out about him but for some reason, my model projects his average finish to be 10th, with a ceiling of 5th. When I was looking to fill this spot I was looking for a driver who was projected to finish in the top 10 and pick up at least 5 spots and besides Almirola my options were: Elliott, Kyle Busch, Larson, Truex Jr, and Reddick, all of which will be on everyone’s radar. I generally don’t quote my own personal projections because they are a work in progress but Almirola is the type of play this week that is crazy enough it might actually work. To his credit, he does have two top 10 finishes in his last three races here and an average finish of 12th at similar tracks last year so he’s not completely out of left field. Almirola is a good enough driver that he will not ruin a lineup even if he has an average race but with all eyes focused on other drivers starting further back, he will definitely differentiate any lineup on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Quin Houff ($5,100 DK, $2,000 FD)

This range is completely pitiful this week and I think the play will actually be to avoid it at all costs. If you absolutely need a driver that costs less than $6,000 your best option is the guy who can’t lose any spots. There is almost no chance he cracks the top 30 but with the way the lineup was set he actually has a relatively high floor.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Homestead that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Joey Logano ($9,300 DK, $10,700 FD)

Kyle Busch ($11,800 DK, $12,200 FD)

Erik Jones ($6,900 DK, $6,5000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Preece ($5,900 DK, $3,500 FD)

Picking enough low hanging fruit this week with Preece. He starts 8th on Sunday and would need a miracle to hang on to a top 10, which would be his only chance of making the perfect lineup. His average Cup finish here is 24.5 and his average finish last year at similar tracks was 26 so he has a terrible history and I think he will just add to it this weekend.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Dixie Vodka 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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