🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Dixie Vodka 400🏁

Only three races are left in the 2022 season, and one driver has already punched his ticket to championship 4. This Sunday, the second race of the Round of 8 will take place in Homestead, FL, when NASCAR travels to Homestead-Miami Speedways for the Dixie Vodka 400. The track is a 1.5 mile, progressively banked oval. The track is known as a high tire wear track, like Auto Club, so tires could be the afternoon's story because Goodyear has turned the smoothest tracks into a calamity. It is interesting to note that for 18 years, Homestead hosted the Championship race, and some of the longer-term results are skewed toward championship drivers. There is only a 10% chance of rain on Sunday, but we are in Florida this weekend, so anything can happen.

On to the Homestead!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run, and 67.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 237 laps should run under the green flag for 106.65 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Our strategy paid off for the most part last week, with no driver leading more than 68 laps. The week we are at another 1.5 mile track where tires may be an issue, so I think will need to roll out the same strategy on Sunday. Each of the last three races at Homestead had at least one driver that lead more than 100 laps, but I don't believe that will be the case on Sunday. There is a real chance that this turns into a caution fest and the lineup will be scrambled a few times. Passing has been doable at 1.5 mile tracks this season therefore, fast cars will be able to make their way up front, so this can turn into a pit/tire strategy race, which does not bode well for dominators. I strongly believe that this is a race where we should focus on building around solid place differential drivers and then sprinkle in dominators. I would limit our lineups to 1-2 drivers starting in the top 10 in tournaments and wouldn't mind fading the top 10 entirely in cash. That doesn't mean we should load up on backmarkers as we do at Superspeedways, but I value potential place differential over possible dominator points on Sunday.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 85 laps, Stage 3: 102 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($9,600 DK, $12,500 FD)

Chastain led the race last Sunday but gave in to Logano's fresher tires late and came in second. He is looking for redemption this Sunday from his 20th place starting position, which makes him a fantastic place differential play. Ross has been very good at similar tracks this season, with an average finish and place differential of 9.625 and four top 3 finishes. It looks like Chastain brought the same speed he had at Las Vegas to Homestead. He posted the 6th best single lap speed and a top five 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 lap average. When looking at his track history, it is always important to note that Chastain has never been in equipment this good, and this season has proven how good of a driver he can be with the right ride.

Austin Dillon ($7,200 DK, $5,300 FD)

Austin Dillon looked lost in practice on Saturday, and it didn't get any better during qualifying when he secured the 32nd starting position. While that isn't a ringing endorsement, he is very good at Homestead. Dillon has six straight top 12 finishes here, with positive place differential in every one of those races. He has also been good at similar tracks this season, with an average finish of 13.375. Overall, I am trusting that Dillon's team will learn from his teammate Tyler Reddick's car, and once that gets sorted out, Dillon will be able to race toward his full potential.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($9,200 DK, $12,000 FD)

I don't love the idea of playing the front row this weekend, but there is a legitimate chance that Byron runs away with this race so he does deserve some tournament consideration. Byron starts on the pole this Sunday and is looking to repeat his success from last year when he led 102 laps and won. William didn't have the best single lap speed in practice on Saturday but did run top six 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 lap averages. If he can hold off any challenges on the restarts, Byron should be able to lead the most laps in the field. I think Reddick is the most likely dominator of the race but his price is very prohibitive considering my hypothesis that there may not a driver that leads more than 100 laps, therefore Byron is the prefered play.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,500 DK, $5,000 FD)

Very few things make me happier than writing up Ricky Stenhouse Jr as the risky play of the week. This week, he isn't nearly as much of a "blow my lineup up" risky play since he is starting 27th, but there is always a chance he clips the wall and posts a blah score. Enough negativity, Homestead is one of the tracks where Stenhouse actually finishes well, with an average finish of 17.33 in his last three races. Pair that with his average finish of 19.375 at similar tracks this season and 10th best single lap speed in practice and Ricky has a chance to hit the perfect lineup if he finishes in the top 15.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,100 DK, $3,500 FD)

Slim pickings in this range this weekend, but I think Gilliland is the cream of the crop. He starts 29th and has an average finish of 23.75 at similar tracks this season. He didn't practice well but I like his chances to pick up spots, especially if this turns into a wreck fest.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Homestead that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($10,600 DK, $13,500 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($8,300 DK, $8,000 FD)

Kevin Harvick ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

John H. Nemechek ($6,100 DK, $5,800 FD)

Nemechek is riding in the 45 this weekend and has shown incredible speed in practice, but I refuse to play him. Starting 4th, there is waaaaaaaaay too much risk even at his low salary considering all he has to do is fall out of the top 10 to score fewer than 30 points.

Pitstop Picks

17-51 (-21.3 u)

I enjoyed this bet last week and it almost got there. Dropping 0.25 units on each of the four drivers my models predict to win the race is a fun way to see how well the models predicted the race. We stand to win anywhere between 0.75 and 1.5 units depending on which driver wins. The model also threw out Austin Dillion as a potential winner. I don't think that is accurate but at +10000 throw a little something on him for fun if you want.

I really love Chastain this race, but damn this is a killer group. I could see Larson or Bell winning which makes this quite the uphill climb for Chastain, but I don't think he deserves to be a +330 underdog here so I am simply trying to steal some value.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Dixie Vodka 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!