LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Daytona 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

🔗Download the Daytona 500 Cheat Sheet

Daytona 500🏁

Guess who’s back back back, back again ‘gain ‘gain, NASCAR’s back back back, tell a friend ‘frien ‘frien, guess who’s back, guess who’s back, guess who’s back, guess who’s back. Every year it astonishes me that the biggest race of the year is the season opener but the atmosphere around the Daytona is always special. 40 men from all across the motorsports industry will compete this Sunday at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL, to be crowned the Daytona 500 champion. The track is a 2.5 mile, banked, asphalt tri-oval. Due to their large size and considerable banking, Daytona, Talladega, and to a lesser extent, Atlanta are now considered superspeedways. This track type is unique because the drivers will rely heavily on drafting throughout the race, oftentimes in large high-energy packs. We will discuss the unique strategy we will use to attack this track type in the Lineup Construction section.

It is impossible to predict the weather in Florida, but it looks like the race has a good chance of being rain-free, something the summer race is never able to avoid.

DraftKings and FanDuel have some giant contests being offered this weekend and there will be plenty of novices throwing their money around now that the NFL season is over and it’s the NBA All-Star break. This may lead to some overlay and a generally softer player pool, a great combination to build bankroll early in the season.

On to Daytona!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run, and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 160 laps should run under the green flag for 72 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Veterans of NASCAR DFS already know that superspeedways are unique animals and deserve to be treated as such but a little refresher for some of our newer readers is probably a good idea. I mentioned earlier that the drivers would spend a significant portion of the race drafting in large packs. Often 15 to 20 drivers will bunch up, inches apart, in an effort to minimize air resistance and maximize speed. While this is the optimal way to produce fast lap times, there is a massive risk in this type of racing. If one driver were to make the slightest mistake, it could trigger a multi-car chain reaction crash, known as a “Big One.” These crashes are all but guaranteed at a superspeedway and have the ability to eliminate 20-30% of the field.

We can use that knowledge to help formulate a DFS strategy that limits the downside and maximizes the upside. While we typically look for drivers that can lead and accumulate the fastest laps, that is not our priority at superspeedways. We want to backload our lineups this weekend in an attempt to limit the number of points we lose if a driver crashes and maximize the points he gains by surviving the race. A driver starting in the top half of the field has a lower ceiling if he finishes the race than a driver starting in the bottom 5 but can also lose significantly more points if he runs into trouble.

Another major consideration for superspeedways lineups is price. At a normal track, the perfect lineup tends to use almost the entire salary cap. The perfect lineup for last Summer’s race at Daytona only used $31,200, the fourth time in the last 11 races that the perfect lineup was sub-$40,000. There was also a magic starting spot for a while at Daytona, but I propose moving it up a little bit to 20th for the time being. 29 of the 36 drivers that made up the last six perfect lineups have started 20th or worse. Therefore, in cash games I would suggest picking only drivers starting worse than 25th to give yourself a little extra safety, In tournaments, if you want to take a shot at the big money, a riskier strategy will be warranted. While I would still fade the top 4 entirely, it is not unheard of for two drivers starting 5-12 to make the perfect lineup. Starting positions 13-19 has recently been a dead zone more or less, which may be another edge for us, either take big risks or play it super safe, don’t really settle in the middle.

Stage 1: 65 laps, Stage 2: 65 laps, Stage 3: 70 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Jimmie Johnson ($7,700 DK, $5,500 FD)

Sunday will be Johnson’s first race since November 2020, but the first practice showed that he has not missed a step. While I don’t put any stock in practice results at superspeedways, it is nice to see if some of these special entry cars have enough juice to keep up with the bigger teams, and Jimmie proved that in a big way. He is starting 39th and has a relatively stellar history with six top 17 finishes in his last eleven superspeedway races including three top 9s. He is used to starting in the front of the field, which skews his results a bit but his entire goal is to finish the race, so I expect him to run a very cautious race until the very end and then go for the checkered flag.

Ty Dillon ($4,800 DK, $4,800 FD)

Ty is always one of my favorite drivers to roster at superspeedways and this Sunday he starts 37th, which makes him a perfect foundational target. Dillion posted a positive place differential in 8 of his last 10 superspeedway races with six top 20 finishes. Dillion is no stranger to starting towards the rear of the field and that has not stopped him from finish in the top 5, with 3rd place finish at Talladega and a 4th place finish at Daytona when starting 28th and 23rd respectively.

Tournament Targets

Justin Haley ($5,600 DK, $6,500 FD)

Haley has garnered a reputation as a superspeedway specialist in his young career. Justin starts 28th on Sunday and has recorded a positive place differential in 9 of his 11 superspeedways at the Cup level. He is a former Daytona winner due to a rain-shortened race in 2019 but that is long enough ago that newer fans may not remember that. He starts inside the top 30 so there is slightly more risk than some other drivers this weekend, but overall I love the upside Haley brings to the table.

Ryan Blaney ($10,100 DK, $13,000 FD)

There is about a 50/50 chance that at least one driver in the perfect lineup will start inside the top 10, and Blaney has a very good chance of being that driver. Ryan starts 7th on Sunday, the same position he started from in this race last year when he led 36 laps and finished 4th, which was enough to land him in the perfect lineup. There is no such thing as a safe driver at a superspeedway, but Blaney’s history is impressive, and he has more wins (3) that DNFs (2) in his last 13 races at Daytona and Talladega.

Bargain Basement

Chase Elliott ($10,400 DK, $12,000 FD)

Superspeedway Pitstops are sort of an ode to the Bargain Basement so I usually like to switch this section up and pick a high-priced driver I like since salary will not be an issue. My big debate for this section was Elliott starting 8th vs Hamlin starting 18th. While it would appear that Hamlin was the “safer” option due to his starting position, he seems to finish poorly when he starts in the middle of the field. Elliott, on the other hand, is another driver that has consistently finished superspeedway races. Chase always finds his way to the front of the field at some point at superspeedways, and I think he has a legitimate chance to take home the checkered flag.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ryan Preece ($6,800 DK, $6,200 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($9,000 DK, $8,500 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,900 DK, $6,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Larson ($9,900 DK, $10,000 FD)

Larson is the current favorite to win, which is reason enough to fade him at a high-variance track like Daytona. He is also starting on the front row and will need to win and dominate to make the perfect lineup, a low-probability outcome at best. I will be rolling out a full fade on the top 4 and if that comes back to bite me so be it.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

Might as well start the season of with a bang. DK isn’t offering a bunch of bets so far, and this is definitely one of the most intriguing long shots. Dillion has two top 5 finishes in his last 10 races at superspeedways so theoretically 20-1 is a great number for this bet. It is not a secret I have a Ty Dillon problem, but if he nails this we will be on starting the season on a fantastic foot.

The defending Daytona 500 champ is in a great spot to repeat, and I wouldn’t mind throwing a couple of bucks on his to win it all. The official recommendation is Cindric to win Group C because I think he is the only driver in the group with top 5 potential. Wallace has proven himself to be a great superspeedway racer, but he is too accident-prone to be a favorite. Kes was fast in practice, but who cares about practice and Reddick is the true wildcard, but he isn’t priced like a wild card so he’s a pass.

Pitstop Poll

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Daytona 500 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!