LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Daytona 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Daytona 500🏁

The wait is finally over! It has been 105 days (2520 hours or 151,200 minutes if you prefer) since the last NASCAR Cup Series race, but today we embark on our 36-week journey to crown the 2026 champion. There have been major changes during the offseason, including a historic lawsuit, driver drama, and a new hybrid playoff system, but we can address all of that another time. This Sunday, the Cup Series travels to Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL, for the Daytona 500. The track is a 2.5-mile, steeply banked tri-oval and is one of two true superspeedways on the circuit. Considering I have been writing the Pitstop longer than I have had children, I would expect the NASCAR faithful to understand the significance of a superspeedway. For newcomers, the Lineup Construction section is especially critical this weekend because we use very specific strategies at this type of track that we would never attempt anywhere else.

It looks like we are already paying for last season's sins in the weather department. Afternoon showers threaten to shorten the race, and NASCAR has even pre-emptively pushed the start time up by an hour. As of right now, the DraftKings contests lock at 2:11 eastern, but the Fanduel contests lock at 1:30. This is a developing situation that we will need to keep an eye on all the way until lock.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 200 laps will be run this week, and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 160 laps should run under the green flag for 72 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Expect a “Big One”. The number one rule of superspeedways is expect chaos. Since every car basically goes the same speed, they are forced to race in packs, sometimes three wide and 10 deep, with no room for error. One wiggle in the middle of a pack can easily end a third of the field’s day. While Atlanta and Talladega can have Big One-less races, all hell breaks loose at Daytona. Sometimes these lineups resemble DFS golf, meaning almost 40% of the field won't finish, and lineups with 5-6 drivers still running at the end rocket up the leaderboard.

2) Place Differential is King. Since we expect about 40% of the field to encounter some issues, we need to construct a lineup with limited downside. In cash, stacking drivers starting on the 30th or worse has been conventional wisdom for years, and there is no reason to go against it. In tournaments, the top 10 have been radioactive. The sweet spot used to be 24th, but recently, some drivers starting further forward have made the perfect lineup. I would suggest limiting our player pool to drivers starting 15th or worse, with a small sprinkle of drivers starting further forward in high-risk lineups. Blaney winning from the pole last summer was an outlier; let’s not chase a one in eight outcome.

3) Don’t be afraid to leave money on the table. The last six perfect lineups have had a total salary between 31200 and 49400. Since we are backloading lineups, it stands to reason we will have a handful of cheap drivers we would never consider at ovals. While this is the exact opposite of what we do at most tracks, that is the reality of superspeedway racing. I usually aim to use about $40,000, but everything depends on the specific build of each lineup.

Stage 1: 65 Laps

Stage 2: 65 Laps

Stage 3: 70 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chris Buescher ($8,400 DK, $9,500 FD): Buescher is starting dead last, which is the perfect place to be at a superspeedway. A former winner at Daytona, Chris is coming in on a streak of six straight top 20 finishes, including three straight top 10s. Buescher will be highly owned, but he is relatively cheap and reliable with no chance of scoring negative points, all things we are looking for in a cash game driver.

Austin Cindric ($9,000 DK, $12,500 FD): Cindric burst onto the scene with a win in his first Daytona 500 as a full-time driver. Since then, he has been a victim of his own success with seven straight races starting in the top 16. On Sunday, Austin starts 36th for the first time in his young Cup career. Cindric has more than proven his superspeedway prowess, so we should jump at the opportunity to roster him this weekend.

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD): Byron has won each of the last two Daytona 500s, so all eyes will be on him on Sunday. In cash, lock Byron in from his 39th-place starting position. In tournaments, I may roll out a full fade because massive regression is incoming. He will be so highly owned that we won’t need to do anything drastic in cash games, but can we really expect Byron to continue to run pure in the most volatile race on the circuit?

Tournament Targets

Bubba Wallace ($9,100 DK, $10,000 FD): Bubba continues to be one of the most underappreciated superspeedway racers. He is a former Talladega winner and starts 27th on Sunday. He is known for crashing on even the most innocuous tracks, but he has finished in the top 20 in 6 of his last 8 races at Daytona. Yes, I am aware of his two consecutive poor finishes, but that’s why he is a nice tournament play, not so much a cash play.

Cody Ware ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD): Never in a million years did I think I would seriously be recommending Cody Ware, but Daytona makes a man (or woman) do strange things, and the numbers don’t lie. Cody has finished in the top 20 in four of his last five races at Daytona, and he starts 33rd. Considering his price tag is close to the bare minimum in both sites, and there are much bigger names starting around him, let’s leave some money on the table and take a shot at glory.

Erik Jones ($7,300 DK, $5,200 FD): Jones is coming off five straight top 18 finishes and starts right on the cusp of our sweet spot, 24th. My model gives him a 43% chance of finishing in the top 10 with a trip to victory lane as his ceiling. While I personally think that may be a touch excessive, I will be happy to be overweight on Jones this weekend.

John H. Nemechek ($6,000 DK, $3,800 FD): My model projects Nemechek to be the winner of this race. That would be an incredible upset, but he starts 11th, has an average positive place differential of 12, and has finished in the top 7 in two of the last four races at Daytona. No, I would not put my life’s savings on Nemechek taking the checkered flag, but this is the risky play of the week, and honestly, there are much worse options out there.

Bargain Basement

Jimmie Johnson ($5,800 DK, $3,500 FD)

While a significant portion of this article has featured the bargain basement, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the legend, Jimmie Johnson. He starts 31st, so I expect him to be a bit overlooked. Jimmie finished 3rd last year in the 500, which would be great, but an unrealistic expectation. A top 15 would be more than enough to get him in the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Michael McDowell ($6,600 DK, $4,800 FD)

Ross Chastain ($8,100 DK, $7,200 FD)

Alex Bowman ($8,500 DK, $7,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Busch ($8,800 DK, $7,200 FD)

Busch starts on the pole, and honestly, he’s not Ryan Blaney. While I really enjoy Rowdy, I don’t expect Sunday to break his winless streak. He is coming off two straight finishes in the mid 30s, and anything outside the top 10 will be a disappointment this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 29-41 (6.2 u)

This isn’t a plus-money H2H, but DK is being very cautious in this race. I don’t particularly like either driver this weekend, but Larson won this matchup in four straight races. Hamlin is the better DFS play because of his 22nd-place starting position, but he has not capitalized on it in recent races at Daytona.

Every time I double-fade a driver for bets, they finish in the top 3, so take these with a grain of salt, but betting against anyone to finish in the top 10 is my favorite thing to do at superspeedways. Both Hamlin and Elliott are accomplished drivers, but Daytona is a different type of beast. Elliott has finished 9th or better in one of his last eight races here, and Denny hasn’t finished better than 17th in that time. On the surface, this looks like a slam dunk, but anything can happen on Sunday, and the rain adds an extra fun wrinkle to the festivities.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 7-15 (-4.09 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Daytona 500 Cheatsheet

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