LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Daytona 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Daytona 500🏁

The 98-day wait is finally over! The NASCAR Cup Series returns this Sunday with their biggest race of the season, the Daytona 500. All eyes will be focused on Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL, while 41 of the best drivers in the world will battle for one of the most prestigious checkered flags in motorsports. The track is a 2.5 mile, steeply banked tri-oval, and it is one of the two traditional superspeedways on the NASCAR circuit. While every track type deserves a unique and nuanced approach, superspeedways are their own animal, and for our newer readers, we will review how to attack this slate in the Lineup Construction section.

It wouldn’t be a race at Daytona if there wasn’t at least a moderate chance of rain. NASCAR moved the green flag time up about an hour, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were still a rain delay in the middle portion of the race. Luckily, the evening looks clear, and the track has lights, so I expect the race to be completed on Sunday.

_{On to Daytona!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 200 laps will be run this week, and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 165 laps should run under the green flag for 74.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Plan for a Big One. Superspeedways are unique because every car has the same top speed, so the entire field has to draft together or risk being left behind. When 40 cars are forced to remain within inches of each other for 500 miles, bad things will eventually happen. The smallest misstep can trigger a chain reaction crash that could take out half the field (a Big One). Knowing this, we need to construct our lineups to limit our downside and maximize our upside.

2) Place Differential is King. Drivers don’t have to be fast to finish well at Daytona; they just need to survive. 19 of the 24 perfect lineup drivers over the last four races here have started 24th or worse. Do not be afraid to backload lineups in cash and tournaments.

3) Limit Downside. Over the last four races, only one driver who started in the top 10 made the perfect lineup. Do not even consider rostering a driver in the top 5 because lap points are worthless at Daytona, and the downside is just too much. In giant tournaments and qualifiers, one driver starting 6-10th could be a good way to differentiate yourself, but that really turns your lineup into a lottery ticket. Most of your lineups should have one to two drivers starting 11-23; the rest should be starting 24th or worse.

4) Salary doesn’t matter. While we are used to making tough salary cap decisions in NASCAR DFS, none of that applies to Daytona. Three of the last four perfect lineups had a total salary between $37,000-$45,400. While I would caution against leaving more than $10,000 on the table, that has been the winningest strategy over the last few races.

Stage 1: 65 Laps

Stage 2: 65 Laps

Stage 3: 70 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Alex Bowman ($8,200 DK, $7,800 FD) Top 20 finish in 5/6 races at Daytona and he starts 38th. It may be due to some regression, but I am willing to take the risk.

Brad Keselowski ($9,200 DK, $12,000 FD): Very boom or bust at Daytona, but he is starting 34th, so the upside is there. Better at Talladega, but I can’t pass up the place differential potential.

Justin Haley ($6,600 DK, $5,500 FD): My model doesn’t like him, but my gut does. The former Daytona winner has the reputation of being a superspeedway ringer, and starting 35th gives him an enormous ceiling.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($9,300 DK, $13,000 FD): It’s hard to call Busch underrated at anything NASCAR-related, but I don’t think he gets enough love as a Superspeedway driver. Going into Sunday, he has 6 straight top 20 finishes, and in 4 of those races, he had a positive place differential of more than 10 spots.

Martin Truex Jr ($7,200 DK, $6,200 FD): Truex starts his retirement on Monday, but one Sunday he is chasing one last checkered flag. Truex starts 39th and is only focused on winning it all.

Noah Gragson ($6,800 DK, $6,000 FD): Not a normal pick, but my model loves him. Gragson has an average finish of 21.2 here with two top 10s. Those are not flukey finishes, however, because he has similar results at Talladega. Starting 32nd provides a ton of room to move up for Noah on Sunday.

AJ Allmendinger ($6,700 DK, $5,800 FD) ‘Dinger’s 13th place starting position is way closer than I would generally feel comfortable with but sometimes these are the types of plays that make a lineup unique. AJ has two top 10 finishes in his last three races here and we need him to add another top 10 to his resume on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Zane Smith ($5,800 DK, $4,800 FD)

Zane starts 37th on Sunday and is bound to go overlooked with all of the big names starting around him. Smith is cheap and has three 13th places finishes in his 3 three races here. While I don’t expect a four-peat, anything in the top 20 would be a serviceable result.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Michael McDowell ($7,100 DK, $7,200 FD)

Cole Custer ($6,200 DK, $4,800 FD)

Jimmie Johnson ($5,500 DK, $4,400 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Briscoe ($8,000 DK, $7,500 FD)

I will be avoiding the top 5, but since Briscoe is sitting on the pole, he theoretically has the most downside in the field. There is no need for high level analysis here, Chase is not making the perfect lineup.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

Plus, money H2Hs are my favorite thing in NASCAR, and let’s see if we can keep the good times rolling. Buescher is a fantastic superspeedway racer, and he starts way further forward. At some point, I expect him to fall back towards his teammate Keselowski, but overall, I think Buescher has the potential to have a better finishing position.

Bowman has the worst starting position by a long shot, but that is actually an advantage on Sunday. While I don’t think Alex has the raw finishing position ceiling as the other three, there’s a non-zero chance that the other drivers all get caught up in a wreck, and Bowman can win the group simply by surviving.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

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