LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Daytona 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Daytona 500🏁

Finally, NASCAR, HAS COME BACK, to the racing Mecca that is Daytona International Speedway. Sorry if I got a little carried away; racing is back, and The Rock is the Grand Marshal for the race, so it seemed like a fitting intro. The wait is finally over; the shortest three months in sports have ended, and now we get to embark on a 36-week journey to crown the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Champion. Every year I think it’s silly that we start the season with the proverbial Super Bowl but I always find myself swept away with the pomp and circumstance.

That is enough blabbering for the time being. To the Pitstop faithful, welcome back, and to those of you checking the sport out for the very first time, you are in for a treat. The track for the Daytona 500 is a 2.5 mile, steeply banked tri-oval. Due to the unique structure of the track, we will have to employ a special strategy for this race that I will go over in the Lineup Construction section. The weather looks terrible for the day, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a Monday race.

A special update for this year. I have revamped the models in the cheatsheet and will now run a machine learning model and 100 to 1000 simulations of each race and report my results. This is my pet project, separate from Linestar’s optimizer, but I always encourage everyone to check it out.

_{On to Daytona!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 200 laps will be run this week, and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 160 laps should run under the green flag for 72 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Daytona and Talladega are the two true superspeedways on the NASCAR circuit (Atlanta gest an asterisk). We have to treat superspeedways differently than any other track type if we want to be successful at DFS. These tracks are much larger than the average track, and their banking and long straightaways allow the cars to generate incredible speed. Due to modifications implemented by NASCAR, just about every car will be able to go the same speed, which forces them to run in a big pack very close together. While that might be fun to see, it is also very volatile. The slightest slip up could cause a chain reaction crash that has the potential to wipe out a significant portion of the field. These crashes are called “Big Ones”, and they are a matter of when, not if.

Since we know there will be carnage at a superspeedway, we have to structure our lineups to minimize our risk and maximize our rewards. Backloaded lineups are a must at Daytona. The top 5 in an absolute dead zone, the top 10 could sneak a driver into the perfect lineup, the 10-20 range is mostly a no man’s land but drivers starting 24th and beyond are where we will make our money. This will lead to lineups with many drivers we don’t ever want to roster, let alone load up on. It also leads to a ton of money left on the table for salary. While that will make you justifiably uncomfortable, it's been a profitable strategy for years. By back loading our lineups, we minimize the damage a driver can inflict if they get caught up in a crash while simultaneously give us a ton of place differential potential if said driver survives the race.

In cash games, I would choose my favorite drivers starting 30th or worse and keep it moving. In tournaments, I would branch into the 20s for a driver or two, depending on your risk tolerance and how many lineups you are building. In qualifiers, I would sample a driver or two in the 10-20 range and fade some of the drivers starting 30th or worse, we think will garner massive ownership.

Stage 1: 65 Laps

Stage 2: 65 Laps

Stage 3: 70 Lap

Lineup Foundation Targets

David Ragan ($6,500 DK, $4,500 FD)

Ragan is starting dead last on Sunday and brings an impeccable superspeedway record with him. David has finished in the top 9 in three of his last four races here, and if we dare look way back before DFS was invented, he even won at Daytona in 2011. Every year, the NASCAR community gets significantly sharper, so I expect Ragan to be very popular on Monday, which is not a problem for cash games. I would, however, caution loading up on him in top heavy contests like qualifiers, if he crashes it will essentially sink half the field.

Kyle Busch ($9,700 DK, $10,500 FD)

Just because we are loading up on low cost drivers with weekend doesn’t mean we should avoid the studs if they are starting in the rear, Busch got caught up in the wreck in Duel 2 and now gets to start 34th. Kyle is deceptively good at superspeedway, with a win last year at Talladega and a 6th place finish in the 2022 Daytona 500. Busch generally performs better when starting 30th or worse, which makes his Monday starting spot particularly enticing.

Tournament Targets

Bubba Wallace ($8,500 DK, $9,800 FD)

Wallace was on a Superspeedway tare between Fall 21 and Spring 22 with a win at Talladega and consecutive 2nd-place finishes here. Although he has cooled off a touch, he is starting much further back than he is used to, which makes me so very happy from a place differential standpoint. A solid performance at Daytona helped solidify Bubba’s first playoff appearance last season and he will be looking for a win on Monday to punch his ticket into the post season for the second consecutive year.

Denny Hamlin ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD)

Rostering a driver in the top 10 is borderline insanity at Daytona, but every now and then, it works out. Denny starts 8th on Sunday, so he will essentially have to win to make it onto the perfect lineup because we cannot expect any dominators to emerge on Monday. Hamlin has an uncanny knack for feeling the tension mount up in the pack, and he is not afraid to drift to the back and let the chaos ensue in front of him. While this strategy is tough from a scoreboard-watching perspective, everyone will be happy if he is around for the end of the race.

Bargain Basement

Riley Herbst ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD)

Herbst is an Xfinity series driver that should go overlooked on Sunday. He starts 36th and is dirt cheap. Pair that with his relative lack of name recognition, and we have the perfect combo. DId I mention that Riley finished in the top 10 in both races here last year? Yeah, he’s very good.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Martin Truex Jr ($8,200 DK, $9,000 FD)

Corey Lajoie ($6,000 DK, $5,500 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Joey Logano ($9,200 DK, $12,000 FD)

There is no chance I am rostering a driver from the front row on Monday. It's a shame because Logano is a very good superspeedway racer, but I don’t expect any driver to dominate, and his floor is a killer.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

Haley is a former Daytona winner and a superspeedway specialist. If there is any sort of chaos I expect Justin to survive and grind his way into the top 10.

Long shots to win groups is a nice little trend I have been watching at superspeedways. Buescher won the summer race here in 2023, so he knows what it takes to win, and he is starting behind every other driver in the group, which could also be a significant advantage.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Daytona 500 Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!