Written by @joejets19

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Daytona 500 🏁

Speedweek 2021 has supplied plenty of fireworks so far and NASCAR has saved the best for last with the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL. The track is a 2.5 mile steeply banked asphalt tri-oval and used to be one of the two restrictor plate tracks on the NASCAR circuit. Restrictor plates capped a car's top speed to prevent it from going too fast and created a unique type of racing experience. While NASCAR scrapped the plates last year, the racing proved to be similar with the updated rules package, so now we refer to the plate tracks as superspeedways, because the strategy we will use at these tracks is drastically different than any other race. The weather forecast is absolutely terrible for most of the weekend (and the rest of the week) so getting all 500 miles in will be a struggle but if NASCAR can pull it off we will be in for a treat.

On to Daytona

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run this and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 170 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 76.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

One of the many things that confuse me about this sport, every year, is that NASCAR starts its season with their most prestigious race. This is easily one of the most fun races of the year so I am definitely excited for it, but from a DFS perspective, it breaks every rule in the book. To be successful in NASCAR DFS you have to be able to adjust your lineup construction to specific tracks, and the strategy for superspeedways is a unique one. I mentioned earlier the restrictor plates and their purpose, but their impact on DFS strategy may not be immediately evident. Since every car has pretty much the exact same top speed, the drivers are forced to draft much more at superspeedways. As the intensity builds towards the ends of stages and the end of the race, two and sometimes three lane drafts will form, packing a large chunk of the field together. If one driver slips by just an inch it can cause a chain reaction crash scooping up a sizeable amount of the field, dubbed "The Big One."

In almost every superspeedway race a Big One occurs, and multiple are possible. We can use this knowledge to our advantage while creating lineups. The key to constructing a winning DFS lineup at a superspeedway is to pick drivers with a limited downside (in case they do get caught up in a wreck) but also have maximum upside (if they survive all 200 laps). We don't worry about drivers who can lead laps because we usually see many drivers lead a small number of laps as opposed to a major dominator. We also can't predict who is going to pick up the fastest laps because of the draft, so place differential is king at Daytona. The key starting position to focus on is 26th. Three of the last four perfect lineups here have had at least four drivers starting 26th or worse and two of those lineups didn't have anyone starting better than 20th. In the long run, there have only been 5 drivers starting in the top 10 in the last 10 perfect lineups. Depending on your risk tolerance, crossing off the entire top 10 could be an option, but ultimately could limit your chances of producing a tournament winning lineup. Another quirky thing about superspeedway lineups is they seldom use the full salary. Lower priced drivers are generally the ones starting in the rear of the field, so some perfect lineups have left as much as $18,000 on the table.

Stage 1: 65 laps, Stage 2: 65 laps, Stage 3: 70 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kaz Grala ($4,900 DK, $4,500 FD)

I will be the first one to admit that Daytona doesn't feel the same without Brendan Gaughan, but I think a solid place to start your lineups this weekend is with Kaz Grala. He is not even close to a household name but he is starting 40th and has an impressive Xfinity resume with two top 5 finishes in his only two Daytona races in 2018. For anyone worrying about his equipment, Gala showed serious speed in his #16 Chevrolet when he posted the 20th fastest single lap speed in qualifying. This is also the same car that Justin Haley rode to a 13th place finish in last year's Daytona 500.

Ross Chastain ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD)

Chastain is priced up to start the season but this is his first honest shot with good equipment and his own team. He starts 34th on Sunday and has shown some serious upside at Daytona with a 16th and a 10th place finish in his last four races here. He is no stranger to making his way through the field here and knows how to survive until the end. Salary will not be an issue this week and he is one of the more recognizable names in the bottom 10 so I believe he will garner some ownership but that won't scare me off of him in cash.

Tournament Targets

Brad Keselowski ($10,100 DK, $12,500 FD)

Keselowski is a game theory play that could differentiate your lineups in tournaments. Kes is starting 24th (right around the magic number) and will be scored directly in front of Hamlin (25th) and Truex Jr (26th). He will have to start in the rear, along with Truex Jr, so I expect him to be the lowest owned of the trio on Sunday. Hamlin easily has the highest upside, winning each of the last two Daytona 500s but will also be heavily owned. At a track as unpredictable as Daytona, I would much rather eat the chalk starting 40th than the chalk starting 25th. Since Truex and Keselowski are starting in the rear, I would expect their ownership to be lower than it should be and I think people will prefer Truex because he is being scored from 2 places further back. Overall I think Truex and Kes have similar ceilings with Truex having the better average finish and Kes having a win on his resume. I believe most of the trouble Keselowski has run into is due to the fact that he spends most of the race upfront and then gets caught in the Big One, possible starting further back will let him finish the race clean.

Erik Jones ($7,300 DK, $6,000 FD)

I wrote Jones up for the Clash and the Duel and he burned me twice. I refuse to miss the boat on Jones this week so the third time's a charm. Jones starts 31st on Sunday and has three top 20 finishes in the last five races in Daytona, including a win and a 3rd. I expect Jones to make it into the top 20 pretty easily and from there we just need to pray he stays out of trouble.

Ryan Blaney ($10,000 DK, $13,300 FD)

We will most likely need to venture out of our safety zone if we want a chance to take down a tournament and that is what the risky pick of the week is for. Blaney is starting 14th and is sort of in a weird spot. He is the last of a stretch of good drivers in good equipment and then there is an 8-9 driver lull of inferior competition until you get to Hamlin. Blaney always seems to be upfront at Daytona for at least a small stretch and I would imagine this Sunday will be the same. 2020 was very good to him here with a 2nd and 6th place finish, the problem is he almost has to replicate those finishes if he wants to end up on the perfect lineup. Overall I think Blaney has as good of a chance as any of the big names to win the whole thing.

Bargain Basement

BJ McLeod ($4,800 DK, $3,000 FD)

McLeod would be a poster boy for superspeedways, a driver that couldn't break into the top 30 on a normal Sunday that suddenly finds himself in the top 20 with 2 laps to go. Even if all hell broke loose I think a top 20 is his ceiling but considering his 38th place starting position I would take that any day.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900 DK, $8,200 FD)

Rickie Stenhouse Jr ($8,100 DK, $8,500 FD)

Joey Logano ($9,900 DK, $13,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Alex Bowman ($9,200 DK, $10,000 FD)

Bowman is starting on the pole and that is not where you want to be at a superspeedway. He is no stranger to starting in the top 10 but he has a hard time finishing there, with only two top 10s in nine career races. Add into that the fact he might have to make race day adjustments to his car that sends him to the rear and I am rolling out the full fade on Bowman this Sunday

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Daytona 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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