🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Daytona 500 🏁

The offseason is finally over and all of the gimmick races are out of the way, it is now time for the main event. Every year I laugh at the fact that the most celebrated race of the NASCAR season is the first one but I also get sucked up into the pomp and circumstance each time. This Sunday is the Daytona 500, an event unlike any other in motorsports. The race will take place in Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL which is a 2.5 mile, steeply banked tri-oval. Daytona is one of two superspeedways on the NASCAR circuit (Talladega being the other) and the strategy for these races are unique so make sure the lineup construction section before building lineups. I mentioned in the previous newsletter that NASCAR rolled out a new car this year and this will be our first look in a full-scale race. It held up decently well in the first two exhibitions but there is nothing like a superspeedway race so this will be a baptism by fire of sorts. Luckily for us, the weather is projected to hold up nicely on Sunday so that is one less thing we will have to worry about. This is easily one of my favorite races of the season and I can't wait for the engines to fire up!

On to Daytona!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run this and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 165 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 74.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Superspeedway races are unique because drivers rely on pack racing to get the optimal performance out of their cars. Essentially, the tracks are so big/wide/steep that NASCAR has to mechanically slow down the cars for the drivers' safety and since most cars will have the same top speed, they will have to draft in a big pack. Inevitably, when 20+ cars are going over 180 mph within inches of each other bad things tend to happen and that is what we call "The Big One." Usually when a crash occurs during a race one or two drivers will get caught up but the rest of the field is relatively unscathed because everyone is spread out. At superspeedways, any slight slip-up can trigger a chain reaction crash that can damage or completely take out over half the field, thus a "Big One."

Now that we established what a Big One is, we can explore why it is so important for DFS purposes. I break down the DK scoring above (FD's scoring is not the exact same but similar enough that the same strategy applies) and for most races, we will want dominators to rack up laps led and fastest laps. Well at Daytona, the lead car in the pack actually goes relatively slow because they have all the drag so predicting the fastest laps is pretty much impossible. Laps led is also not that significant here because it is a shorter race, only 160 laps and there are a ton of lead changes so very few races have a true dominator. Therefore, the most important thing we need to focus on this weekend is place differential and if are already expecting half the field to be taken out by a massive crash, we want to construct our lineups in a way that limits the downside while maximizing the upside. Instead of picking a few drivers in the top 10 that we think can lead laps or win, we want to focus most of our attention on drivers starting 26th or worse. In fact, we will want between 4-6 drivers that start that far back. In cash, I would recommend rostering all 6 drivers starting 26th or worse because of their safety. Check out the attached cheatsheet, it has a great tool to illustrate how many fantasy points a driver will score depending on where they finish and it will help you visualize how detrimental it is to roster a driver that starts in the top 15 but finishes in the 30th or worse.

In tournaments, especially the massive Millionaire, you will have to take on more risk if you want to take it down. Since there is still a shortage of the new generation car, I can see a scenario where the race is incredibly calm for the most part. I am actually worried about a Big One free race, which has a low probability but is still within the range of outcomes. To guard against this scenario, I would construct some tournament lineups with three drivers starting 26th or worse and three drivers starting between 5-25. I think it will still be a safe bet to write off the front row and the next row is also questionable but sometimes you need to get funky to make a good and unique lineup.

One final quirk I want to point out about lineup construction for this race, you will not need the entire salary cap. Perfect lineups have ranged from $31,700-$49,000. Leaving around $10,000 on the table is reasonable if the drivers are starting in the right spots.

Stage 1: 65 laps, Stage 2: 65 laps, Stage 3: 70 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Hamlin is tied with Larson as the favorite to win the race and will probably be the highest owned driver of the slate. That is a very risky proposition at Daytona and fading him will get you instant leverage to make the Million if runs into any type of trouble. This, however, is the lineup foundation section so obviously, I think he is a great cash play. Hamlin starts 30th on Sunday and is coming off of a six-race stretch that includes four top 10s and two win. He is no stranger to running the back of the pack when the racing heats up and then capitalizing late. Luckily for us, he is starting in the back so he has an inflated floor that we are not used to.

Austin Dillon ($8,400 DK, $8,200 FD)

Austin Dillon is another past Daytona winner starting further back in the field than he is used to. Starting 36th, it is nearly impossible for Dillon to put up a negative score and yet he has massive upside. Austin has posted a positive place differential in six of the last eight races at Daytona with four top 12 finishes including a win and a third-place finish. He will be another heavily owned driver, not the the extent of Hamlin, so there is a conversation to be had in tournaments but both should be cash game cornerstones.

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($9,800 DK, $13,000 FD)

Logano was in leading his Duel on Thursday night until he threw a block on the last lap and got wrecked. He will be scored from 20th on Sunday but will actually have to start in the rear because he is going to a backup car. Logano is the type of driver that likes to run up front in these races and then gets swept up in the Big One. Hopefully, starting in the rear will make him take a page out of Hamlin's book and ride along the back and tick off the laps until the action begins. Since Logano is being scored from 20th he has significant downside so I would not suggest him in cash games but he will be firmly in play for tournaments.

Bubba Wallace ($8,300 DK, $9,700 FD)

The risky pick of the week is moving up a slot this season and it is going to start off with a bang. Wallace is starting 17th on Sunday, which is actually his lowest finish in the last 5 races here. Bubba has seven top 15 finishes in nine career races at Daytona and won last year at Talladega, another superspeedway. I firmly believe all good things must come to an end, especially when Wallace is involved, so I am holding my breath with this call. Bubba has an increased priced tag and is starting further forward than most people would like so I am hoping he will go slightly under-owned, providing another leverage opportunity to us.

Bargain Basement

Noah Gragson ($5,300 DK, $3,500 FD)

Superspeedways are the races where the bargain basement thrives and I expect Gragson to lead the way. This will be his first Daytona 500 but he does have experience here with the Xfinity series. Noah was able to record a positive place differential in three of six Xfinity races here and even pulled off a win. Starting 39th, we won't need nearly that level of production but a top 25 finish will be more than enough to pay off his salary.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like atDaytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Justin Haley ($7,400 DK, $6,700 FD)

Aric Almirola ($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD)

William Byron ($9,400 DK, $11,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Larson ($10,200 DK, $12,000 FD)

Fading Kyle Larson never feels good, especially when he's on the pole. The books have him as a co-favorite with Denny Hamlin to win the race, which I don't get but who will argue with him after the year he had in 2021. No driver on the pole has ever made the perfect lineup and I am not expecting that to change on Sunday. Larson has never finished in the top 5 at Daytona but has three finishes of 20th or worse in his last six races here. Kyle is no stranger to running off the front at Daytona but has never been able to capitalize on it.

Pitstop Picks

New this season, I will be adding my insight on two bets I am looking at for the upcoming race.

The Draftkings Sportsbooks is being downright brutal with the bets to start the season but this is one of the few that have jumped out at me. Larson has a better long-term history but Elliott has beaten Larson in both races in 2021. I think starting position will be key to this matchup. Elliott has finished very poorly when he starts up front but finished well when starting outside the top 10 (he is starting 11th on Sunday. Larson on the other hand has only finished better than 10th when he starts outside the top 10 but he is on the pole on Sunday. This bet could come down to who avoids the big one better, and I'll take a stab on Elliott.

DraftKings lost their shirt last year when Michael McDowell won the Daytona 500 and is punishing everyone this year. The being said, Lajoie is the only legitimate value on this top 10 list. Chastain/McDowell/Haley are all interesting options if you can find them in the +200 range but I can't put money on them at the odds DK is offering. Lajoie, to his credit, has three top 10 finishes in his last 5 races at Daytona. He also has a top 20 finish in five of his last six races, if you are willing to take him at -150 for a top 20.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Daytona 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!