🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Cup Series Championship Race (Original, I Know) 🏁

Congratulations for sticking it out, we made it to the last race of the season. This is always a bitter-sweet moment because I love NASCAR DFS and interacting with the Linestar community but a little break is always nice. Thank you for continuing to read/chat/tweet and I hope we can end the season with a bang. The Cup Series Championship Race will take place on Sunday afternoon at Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, AZ. The track is a 1 mile, flat, tri-oval which more closely resembles a triangle than an oval. The track is known for its oddly positioned start finish line and wide open infield area that is actually raceable. We have seen over the years that the Championship race is an event unlike any other and I expect that trend to continue this year. Firstly, we had practice and qualifying, which has not happened at any of the traditional tracks this season. Secondly, we have seen in the past that non-championship drivers kind of stay out of the way and let the final four cars battle it out. Last year we actually saw Chase Elliott race from last to first in only 79 laps. I expect the Championship 4 to ride around the front from start to finish and battle it out at the end.

On to Phoenix!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 312 laps will be run this and 78 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 272 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 122.4 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

I mentioned it a bit in the lead in, the key to this race will be picking the right Championship drivers. I believe the dominator pool should only include 4 drivers: Hamlin, Larson, Truex Jr., and Elliott. I would expect at least 2 of those drivers to make the perfect lineup with a very slight chance of three. Traditional races at Phoenix will have at least one driver that leads more than 100 laps and then a second drive that will lead between 60-100. I would expect the same type of split to occur on Sunday. The only way I see a three Championship driver lineup working is if Larson or Elliott leads early, Hamlin takes over the lead and dominates then Truex makes a late race adjustment and steals the championship. Truex is at a slight disadvantage starting 12th (he will be in the top 5 very quickly) but he has a massive DFS advantage because he has significantly more place differential potential than the other 3 drivers. For example, if Truex leads 20 laps and wins he scored 61 DK Pts, if Elliott leads 60 laps and finishes 4th he only scores 53 DK Pts.

Now what to do with our other 4 drivers. There is enough value on this slate that I expect a driver in the sub-$6,000 range to make the perfect lineup. Historically these cheap drivers don't need to make big moves, just pick up a spot or two (or finish where they start if they are starting very far forward). Ideally, the rest of our roster should be able to finish in the top 10 with a positive place differential but we can expand our target range to the top 15 in cash.

Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 115 laps, Stage 3: 122 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK, $14,500 FD)

Larson set the record for most laps led in a single season and he gets to start on the pole this Sunday to add to his record. He has not been able to dominate Phoenix in his career but he has proven time and again that this year is different and he has the ability to run away with any race. As of right now, there is no scheduled competition caution so I expect Larson to lead the entire first stage. Kyle's biggest threat this entire season has been Denny Hamlin and I don't expect that to change on Sunday. Once Denny catches up to Larson the real race will begin but until then, I expect Larson to rack up dominator points in bunches.

Christ Buescher ($6,400 DK, $6,300 FD)

It makes me all warm and fuzzy inside when I get to write up Buescher so I am glad he is cheap and starting 26th. Buescher has six straight top 20 finishes at Phoenix and five of those finishes came with positive place differential. He has raced well at similar tracks this season too, with an average finish of 18.125. Buescher tends to finish better than he runs (avg finish of 19 but average run of 23) so he may be due for some negative regression. At this track, I prefer to trust track history and I think Buescher will be a fine cash play on Sunday.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

I have mentioned Hamlin twice now in this Newsletter, so I might as well do a bit of a deeper dive. Hamlin starts 6th on Sunday and has a very impressive Phoenix history with a top 5 finish in four of the last five races here including a win. Hamlin does not have the inherent place differential of Truex and is more expensive than both Truex and Elliott but Hamlin has the best stats going into the race by far. Hamlin has the best average finish at Phoenix (of the Championship 4) over the last seven race, the best finish at similar tracks, the best green flag average speed in the first Phoenix race this season, and the best total speed at similar tracks this season. I expect Hamlin to make it to the front eventually, it all depends on if he can close out the season on top.

Aric Almirola ($8,100 DK, $8,500 FD)

Almirola at short flat tracks is a thing and I like him as a solid place differential option on Sunday. Aric is starting 18th and has finished 13th or better in seven of the last eight races here including five top 10s. A lot has been written this season about Almirola's lack luster season this year but despite that, he has actually posted the 9th best total speed rating at similar tracks. I expect a top 10 finish out of Almirola this Sunday which should land him safely in the perfect lineup.

Joey Logano ($8,900 DK, $11,000 FD)

While I don't expect anyone to break up the Championship 4's big race, I think Logano is the most likely party pooper. Joey has led 60 or more laps in each of the last 4 races here, including 143 laps this spring en route to a 2nd place finish. He is starting 10th this Sunday and is cheap enough that he doesn't need to be upfront too long to make the perfect lineup. Overall I think Logano has been overlooked too often this season and he could finally capitalize on that this Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($5,800 DK, $4,500 FD)

I am going to fall into the Preece trap one last time this season. He is cheap and starting 31st so I really think there is only one place for him to go and that is forward. He has had a bad string of negative place diff races here but that was with him starting way further forward. I don't expect him to crack the top 20 but luck for us, he doesn't need to.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Bubba Wallace ($7,700 DK, $7,000 FD)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400 DK, $13,000 FD)

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kevin Harvick ($9,300 DK, $9,500 FD)

I enjoy fading Harvick at Phoenix because there is this narrative that Harvick is the "King of Phoenix" when he hasn't had a dominant race since 2016. Yes he finishes well and has backed into two perfect lineups in the last 10 races but Harvick continues to be over-owned at this track and going the other way has been very successful recently.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Cup Series Championship Race cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!