LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Crayon 301

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Crayon 301🏁

Mother Nature shortened two straight fantastic races and is looking to rain on our parade again this Sunday when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH, for the Crayon 301. The track is a 1.058 mile flat oval. The track is rather unremarkable, and if this race plays out anything like last year (minus a few bad calls from the control tower), I expect it to be nearly impossible to pass here again.

Weather is again an issue this weekend, and I don’t see how this race takes place on Sunday. The chances of rain is over 60% for the entire afternoon so I expect the race to be moved to Monday pretty early in the day.

_{On to Loudon!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 301 laps will be run this week, and 75.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 253 laps should run under the green flag for 112.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

The one major drawback of the new rules package is the way it performs at short tracks and we have a short track race on the docket for this weekend. Loudon is weird, however, because although it is only 1 mile long, the race only has 301 laps. That is still a ton of laps compared to road courses and superspeedways, but compared to a cookie-cutter 1.5 miler, that is only about 10% more laps. Nailing our dominator is essential in New Hampshire. Races here generally have one major dominator, most likely starting in the front row. A secondary dominator may emerge, but I would expect that driver to also start in the top 5. Clean air is paramount with this rules package and whoever grabs the lead early will be nearly impossible to pass under green flag conditions.

Once we select our dominator(s), we must fill out our lineups with drivers we think will finish well. Notice I didn’t say place differential drivers, because I think we will need to front-load our lineups like we do at road courses. The perfect lineup for last year’s race featured four drivers in the top 10 and a 5th driver in the top 20. Now do I expect a replica perfect lineup? No! But I think five drivers starting in the top 20 is a feasible strategy (the four drivers in the top 10 is absurd and asking for trouble). These drivers don’t need to make huge moves; how could they considering their starting position, but they should finish in the top 10. This may force us into a more balanced approach than usual but that is ok, passing will be very difficult so we can find value in drivers that qualified well that will be able to finish well as long as they don’t have any major issues.

It will be very difficult for us to justify playing too many bargain basement drivers in tournaments, but there is an argument to be made in cash games. There will be one very highly owned low priced driver, but besides that, there are very few options we can trust.

Stage 1: 70 Laps

Stage 2: 115 Laps

Stage 3: 116 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Truex starts on the front row this Sunday next to teammate Christopher Bell and I think he is the driver to beat at New Hampshire. Truex has a better average finish at this track over the last three races and at similar tracks this year. He also had better single lap, 5 lap, and 10 lap averages during practice on Saturday. While the first few laps of the race will have a huge impact on how this race will play out, I think over the long run Truex is the most dangerous driver in the field.

Ross Chastain ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD)

I tried to impress the importance of front loading lineups for tournaments in the Lineup Construction section, but exceptions can be made in cash. Chastain, starting 31st, is one such exception. His price has taken a significant hit since his high point of $10,100 in May at Charlotte. He has three top 5 finishes at similar tracks this season and an average positive place differential of 11 in his two previous races at New Hampshire. Ross was very fast in practice and has 301 laps to be patient and make his way into the top 15. That said, patience isn’t his thing, and there is a chance Chastain is one of the highest owned drivers on the slate. For big tournaments, I like the idea of fading Chastain due to ownership concerns and the lack of passing here. In conclusion, Ross is a great cash play, and a savvy tournament fade.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,900 DK, $13,500 FD)

Toyotas were very strong in practice and qualifying on Saturday and I expect that trend to continue whichever day this weekend’s race happens. Hamlin is expensive this weekend but is starting 20th so he has significant place differential potential. While Chastain was cash safe and tournament optional, I believe the opposite is true for Denny. Hamlin will either race his way into the top 5 or completely flounder, and that range of outcomes relegates him to tournaments only. He has three top 5s at similar tracks this season, including a win, but his propensity for pit road penalties and unforced errors will be at fatal blow at a track like Loudon. I love Hamlin as a pay-up-to-be contrarian option this weekend, but will only use him in tournaments.

Brad Keselowski ($8,600 DK, $8,000 FD)

Keselowski is starting 9th this weekend and fits our narrative of drivers starting well and finishing well. He is expensive enough that he needs a top 5 finish to have a shot at the perfect lineup, but that is a relatively reasonable expectation. He posted a top 5 five lap average in practice on Saturday and has an average finish of 3.67 over his last three races here, including a win. Keselowski will have to hit his ceiling to make the perfect lineup this weekend but all signs indicate that this is the weekend it could happen.

Bargain Basement

Michael McDowell ($5,900 DK, $4,800 FD)

McDowell sneaks into the basement this weekend with a price tag of $5,900. He starts 17th on Sunday and only needs a top 15 to hit value. He ran the best single lap speed in practice on Saturday and had the second best 5, 10, and 15 lap averages. While I don’t expect Michael to have the best car on the track, picking up four or five spots doesn’t seem like too much to ask, and that is all we really need from him.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Loudon that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick ($9,600 DK, $11,500 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($8,400 DK, $8,500 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,300 DK, $6,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Aric Almirola ($8,200 DK, $7,800 FD)

Is Loudon short? Yes. Is Loudon flat? Yes. Then why are we fadding him? Well he starts 3rd, and I really don’t see him passing or even holding off the Toyotas for very long. He starts way too far forward to be very useful, and a significant amount of people will be willing to take the risk on him.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 9-25 (-8.25 u)

We are finally back to normal at the books, and I decided to go outside the box compared to my usual bets. Toyotas seems like the cars to beat this weekend, and I am not willing to bet against them.

I love taking long shots in the groups, and I really think Reddick has top 10 potential. Busch is starting in the rear, and Logano/Larson both have average finishes of 10.5 over their last three races. The winner of this group will most likely need a top 5, but overall I like Reddick’s opportunities this weekend.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-3 (3.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Crayon 301 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!