🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Southern Cookout 500 🏁

Daytona delivered an exciting finish to the regular season last weekend and now the playoff field is set. Sixteen drivers begin a ten-race sprint to determine the 2021 Cup champion this Sunday as NASCAR travels to Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC for the Southern Cookout 500. Darlington is a 1.366 mile, egg shaped, high tire wear oval. It has a unique track length and configuration, with steeper and longer turns 1 and 2 and slightly flatter and narrower turns 3 and 4. This will also be a much longer race than usual, 367 laps and 500 miles will be run on Sunday night. NASCAR does a great job placing meaningful/entertaining races on holiday weekends throughout the season and they are looking to continue this trend on Sunday and kick off the playoffs with a bang.

On to Darlington!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 367 laps will be run this and 91.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 330 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 148.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Get ready for a loooooong race on Sunday night with a ton of dominator points up for grabs. The number of dominators, however, is not as easy to predict. In the last eight races at Darlington, there have been 3 one dominator races, 2 two dominator races, 2 three dominator races, and even a no dominator race. With the exception of the September 2019 race, every driver that led 80 or more laps at Darlington has started in the top 6 (including the four races during the metric qualifying era). Since the playoff drivers are all starting in the top 16, this is a more top heavy race than usual and there will be a ton of fast cars upfront. I think we will need to focus our dominator pool on the top 6 and we may want to widen it to the top 10 in tournaments. This is certainly a race that rewards a good track position and it will be very hard to pass the leader, especially when they have clean air.

Since dominator points are so important, we can sacrifice some mid-range drivers that may race well and pick up a few pos place differential but not offset the big scores some of the better drivers put up. Ideally, we want to roster all drivers that can finish in the top 10 and lead some laps, it may be beneficial to draft a cheap driver with a lower ceiling and use the extra salary on a top of the board driver that has the ability to lead 80+ laps. This strategy differs from the approach we take at most 1.5-mile races but it is generally much harder to find a dominator outside the top 10 so we will want to take as many risks in that range as possible.

Stage 1: 115 laps, Stage 2: 115 laps, Stage 3: 135 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

The regular-season points champion, Kyle Larson, is starting 6th on Sunday and is the most likely dominator at Darlington. He has been consistently fast at the three high tirewear ovals this season and is the only driver to post top 5 total speed ranks at Homestead, the first Darlington race and both Atlanta races. Larson is no stranger to dominating here either, he has led 44 or more laps in four of his last five races at Darlington including two races with more than 124 laps led. There are some fast cars starting in front of Larson, namely Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin, so it may take a little time for him to capture the lead but I expect Larson to get there at some point during the race and not look back.

Chris Buescher ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD)

Buescher gets a significant price bump this weekend but he starts 34th so he can more than pay off his salary with place differential. Chris has run very well at the high tire wear tracks this season and has a surprisingly good track history with 5 top 20 finishes here in eight career races. Buescher would be a lock if he were about $900 cheaper but even at this price, he should be a cornerstone of any cash lineup.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

Truex has dominated each of the last two races at Darlington with a win and a 22nd finish to show for it. He starts 10th on Sunday so he is out of our comfortable dominator range, relegating him to primarily a tournament target. I keep expecting Truex to catch fire and rip off a few good races in a row but it seems like everyone at Joe Gibbs Racing is running ok, just still slightly off. This could be the race that puts Truex back on the right track so I will definitely have some exposure to him. He is incredibly expensive, however, so I would avoid any Larson/Truex lineups and use Truex strictly as a Larson pivot.

Erik Jones $6,100 DK, $5,800 FD)

Jones is going to be a very popular option due to his depressed price but I love the upside he brings to the table, especially in tournaments. Erik starts 22nd on Sunday and has a fantastic history at Darlington, albeit in much better equipment. I do not expect him to live up to his career average finish of 7th but he is a legitimate top 15 threat and that is exactly what I am looking for in GPPs.

Kurt Busch ($8,100 DK, $9,500 FD)

I don't normally use my risky pick of the week on a potential dominator but I think way too many people are going to write Kurt off this weekend. Busch starts third on Sunday, which puts him comfortably in the top 6 window we are looking for, and showed incredible speed at other high tire wear tracks. He ran into some trouble earlier this year at Atlanta and Darlington but was able to win and dominate the second Atlanta race this season. A deep dive into Busch's Darlington history shows that he has been able to lead laps when starting in the top 6 in the past so I do have some hope in his ability to get upfront and stay there. I love Kurt's low price and high ceiling but if he doesn't dominate it will be a very long night for him and the people to rostered him because he has next to zero place differential potential.

Bargain Basement

Quinn Houff ($5,400 DK, $2,500 FD)

Races after superspeedways are always super difficult for the bargain basement because there are a ton of low priced drivers starting way too far forward. Houff, however, took a broken car to Daytona so he is starting dead last. He should be able to pick up 5 or 6 spots just by finishing the race and considering most of the drivers in his price range are at risk of posting negative points, his floor is great for cash games. I would avoid him in tournaments/satellites because of his almost non-existent ceiling but overall I think there are much worse options this weekend.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Darlington that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700 DK, $7,800 FD)

Chase Briscoe ($6,300 DK, $5,500 FD)

Ross Chastain ($7,500 DK, $8,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($8,500 DK, $9,800 FD)

Blaney is coming off of two exciting victories in a row but I expect that streak to end on Sunday. He is starting on the pole but he is absolutely terrible at Darlington with one top 10 finish in his career. Blaney has also been sluggish at the high tirewear tracks despite his win earlier this year at Atlanta.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Southern Cookout 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!