🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Cook Out Southern 500🏁

Last week's race took a little longer than expected but Daytona delivered in a big way. With the playoff field set, NASCAR travels to Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC, for the Cook Out Southern 500. The track is a 1.366 mile egg-shaped oval. The "Lady in Black" is known for its unique shape and rough racing surface that will challenge these drivers for the entire 500 miles. Mother nature deprived us of our night race last week, but we should be smooth sailing on Sunday evening.

On to Darlington!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 367 laps will be run, and 91.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 315 laps should run under the green flag for 141.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Races at Darlington are fun because they can have high attrition and dominators, resulting in abnormally high scores. Nine of the last ten races here had at least one driver that led more than 100 laps, while three races had two drivers that led more than 100 laps. All but one of these dominators started in the top 10, and four started in the front row. We will want to roster two drivers starting in the top 10 this weekend that have the potential to dominate. Only one of the last ten races had more than two drivers that started in the top 10 that made the perfect lineup, so I would not game plan for such a low probability outcome.

While dominators are an important aspect of Darlington races, attrition also plays a significant role. Eight of the last 10 races had at least 9 drivers finish 5 laps down due to inferiority or incidents. This enables drivers to make huge moves, even ones you do not expect. For our place differential drivers, we will focus on drivers starting 15th or worse that can finish in the top 10. Ideally, we will want five of our six drivers to finish in the top 10. The non-top 10 drivers can be a bargain basement driver that finishes in the top 25 with a positive place differential.

Stage 1: 115 laps, Stage 2: 115 laps, Stage 3: 137 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Daniel Suarez ($8,000 DK, $8,200 FD)

Suarez failed tech three times on Saturday and will have to serve a pass-through penalty to start the race. Why would I build my lineups around a driver starting at such a disadvantage? That is because he starts dead last and had three career finishes between 10-13. Suarez was also fairly decent in practice, posting the 16th best single lap time and 13th best 5,10, and 15-lap average. He may go down a lap early in the race, but there will be plenty of time for Daniel to dig himself out of his initial hole, and I love a high-ceiling driver starting last at pretty much any track.

Kevin Harvick ($8,500 DK, $8,800 FD)

Harvick is starting 18th on Sunday and isn't in contention to be a dominator but I do love his top 10 potential. Kevin had a very worrisome single lap speed and 5 laps average in practice on Saturday, but he ran much better over the longer run. Harvick has three top 5 finishes this year at similar tracks, and a 4th place finishes here in the Spring, so I believe he provides significant value for his modest price.

Tournament Targets

Christopher Bell ($8,700 DK, $10,000 FD)

While Logano will soak up a ton of ownership because he won in the Spring and starts on the pole on Sunday, I think Bell is the more likely dominator on Sunday. Christopher was much better in practice on Saturday over the long run and had a better average finish at similar tracks this season. This is the definition of a tournament play, but I think it can pay off in a big way if Bell ends up being the major dominator.

Martin Truex Jr ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

Everything about this seems like a trap but I can't get over the feeling that Truex showed up to Darlington with a rocket ship. I was fully intending on fading Truex going into this weekend because I was worried about a let down race after missing the playoffs. He ran the fifth-best single lap time and a top two 5,10,15 and 20 lap average on Saturday. Truex has been hot and cold at Darlington but he also excels at races that start during the day and finish at night, so I think I will go back to the well on Sunday evening.

Bargain Basement

Harrison Burton ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD)

There are many more options than usual in this range, but I would prefer a driver with a legitimate upside on Sunday. Burton starts 28th on Sunday but ran the 19th best 15-lap average on Saturday. He also has three finishes of 21st or better at similar tracks this season. If he can stay clean, Harrison has top 20 potential and that is all you can expect from a basement driver.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Darlington that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ross Chastain ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD)

Erik Jones ($7,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,500 DK, $5,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Michael McDowell ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

McDowell is a non-playoff driver starting 10th on Sunday. He does not have dominator potential and is much more expensive than he deserves to be. I will be rolling out a full fade of McDowell on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

14-40 (-15.3 u)

Jones is starting 15th and was very fast in practice. This is one of his best tracks, and he has finished in the top 8 in six of his nine races here. I am very happy to get this at +200.

While I think Bell is the most likely to win the race out of this group, Harvick is by far the most consistent driver. I expect Byron and Blaney to run into some type of trouble, so it will all come down to Harvick vs. Bell, and I can't pass up the +550.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Cook Out Southern 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!