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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Cook Out 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Cook Out 400🏁

Ryan Blaney put up a decent fight last weekend at the Glen, but Shane Van Gisbergen proved yet again that he is inevitable on tracks with more than 4 turns. Luckily for the rest of the field, we are going short track racing this Saturday evening when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Richmond Raceway in Richmond, VA, for the Cook Out 400. The track is a 0.75-mile, relatively flat, D-shaped oval that has proven fairly uneventful over the years. Do not take the uneventful the wrong way; while there are very few cautions, fast cars can still move through the field, and different strategies generally lead to multiple dominators. For the most part, Richmond has been the most model-friendly track we visit due to its low incidence rate. This will lead to many duplicated lineups, so we will have to be smart with our pivots this weekend.

There is something special about a night race under the lights, and we will be treated to three in a row. There is zero rain in the forecast Saturday evening, so this one should go off without a hitch.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 400 laps will be run this week, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 360 laps should run under the green flag for 162 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Find the dominators. Each of the last four races had at least two drivers who led 80 or more laps; one race had three such drivers, and another had four. One of the drivers starting in the top 3 has been a dominator in each of those races, but poor finishes prevented two of those drivers from making the perfect lineup. I think one of the dominators will come from the top 4 again Saturday evening. The other dominators can really come from anywhere in the field. A combination of speed and luck can get a driver up front; it is up to him to stay there.

2) Passing is hard at short tracks. Both perfect lineups in the 2024 races had three drivers who started in the top 10. Passing is hard, but fast cars can make their way forward, creating a peculiar dynamic. I can see a scenario where three front-runners and three fast cars from the back make the perfect lineup, leaving the middle of the field sorta in no man’s land.

3) The basement could be dicey this weekend. I am copying this point from last week. There are a couple of ways the basement can come into play. A cheap driver starting from the front and holding their position is the first possibility. Our other option is to capture all the dominator points and use a basement driver for salary relief. Both options have been optimal for lineup construction recently. A fade of the basement has also been a tournament-winning strategy in recent years. There are not many drivers starting up front in this price range, but I like the idea of rostering a cheap driver starting up front and paying up for place differential.

Stage 1: 70 Laps

Stage 2: 160 Laps

Stage 3: 170 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Joey Logano ($9,700 DK, $11,500 FD): Logano blew a tire in practice and was not able to turn in a qualifying lap, landing him a 38th-place starting position. Joey has nowhere to go but forward, and with plenty of slower cars in front of him, I am not worried about him losing a lap early on. This is a no-brainer, especially in cash, play Joey Logano.

Kyle Busch ($8,500 DK, $7,800 FD): Busch had the fastest car in practice, which may be relatively deceiving but considering his 28th place starting position he still makes a fantastic place differential play. Kyle has struggled all season, but his price is reasonable, and his floor is high enough that I will be eating the chalk on Saturday.

Ross Chastain ($8,300 DK, $9,000 FD): Chastain has two top 5 finishes in his last four races at Richmond. Ross starts 33rd on Saturday and provides fantastic value. I could see Chastain struggling to crack the top 10 this weekend, but a top 15 finish should be enough for us in cash games.

Tournament Targets

Tyler Reddick ($8,700 DK, $9,500 FD): Reddick starts on the front row and I think is the most likely dominator in the field. He led 81 laps from the pole position in 2023 but missed the perfect lineup due to a poor finishing position. While Preece will have the clean air to start the race, Reddick had the fast car in practice, and I like his chances to lead the entire first stage and the early portion of the second stage as well.

Josh Berry ($8,000 DK, $8,200 FD): Berry is trying his best to fill the Almirola role of short flat track specialist. He has an average finish of 9th at Richmond with a top finish of 2nd. He starts 17th on Saturday and has plenty of place differential potential. He is cheap enough that a top 10 finish should be enough for him to make the perfect lineup.

Michael McDowell ($6,100 DK, $5,500 FD): While he is not technically a basement driver, I am eyeing McDowell as my cheap driver that finishes nicely. He starts 10th on Saturday and only needs to hold serve to hit value. McDowell has achieved a top finish of 6th in his last four races, and I think he will be significantly under-owned, providing a ton of opportunity.

Ryan Preece ($7,600 DK, $6,500 FD): Preece is my risky pick of the week because this could go very bad, very quickly. Ryan has proven to have top 10 speed, especially at the short tracks this season, but if he falls out of the top 10, this will be a disaster. My model projects Bell and Hamlin to be the top lap leaders of the race. I think it may be Reddick, but the importance of clean air cannot be overstated, and there is a chance Preece runs away with the first stage and a half, then hangs on to a top 10 to make the perfect lineup. This is a 15% play at best.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,600 DK, $4,500 FD)

The basement is a rough place for this race, but Gilliland starts 31st and has two top 20 finishes in his last four races here. Ideally, we would like a higher ceiling than that for tournaments, but he is a decent play for cash games.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Richmond that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($11,00 DK, $14,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($9,000 DK, $8,500 FD)

Ty Gibbs ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

AJ Allmendinger ($6,000 DK, $4,200 FD)

Allmendinger starts 3rd on Saturday evening and has an average finish of 27th over his last two races here. His average finish at correlated tracks is 23.67, and I don’t think he has a shot at hanging on to a top 10 this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 19-27 (4.95 u)

It appears that the sportsbooks are currently wary of H2Hs, but I see some value here. On the surface, Bell feels like a slam dunk; he has a better starting position, average finish, and practice speeds, but Byron has the better average running position over the last four races, indicating he may have been a victim of recurrent bad luck. My model projects Byron to finish second Saturday night, which will be a tall task for Bell to overcome.

This Keselowski bet seems to be a no brainer. He hasn’t finished better than 6th in his last four races here. The RFK team has excelled at flat tracks since its restructure, but somehow Kes always seems to have the worst car. Regarding Blaney, I’m unsure whether my model is biased against him or Underdog blindly favors him, but a top 9 finish from his 20th-place starting position is a significant challenge. Blaney has a top finish of 11th in his last 4 races here and an average place differential of -1.25.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 5-9 (-1.59 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Cook Out 400 Cheatsheet

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